Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks visit Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and the Los Angeles Clippers on Sunday afternoon. Dallas is off to a shaky start, losing its first two games on the road to the Phoenix Suns and the Los Angeles Lakers. The Clippers are red-hot after back-to-back wins over the Lakers and the Denver Nuggets. Leonard (mouth) is officially listed as questionable to play for the Clippers. Kristaps Porzingis (knee) is officially out for Dallas and Marcus Morris (knee) is out for the Clippers.
Tip-off is at 3:30 p.m. ET at the STAPLES Center. William Hill Sportsbook lists the Clippers as five-point home favorites, holding steady from the opening line, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 228.5 in the latest Mavericks vs. Clippers odds. Before you make any Clippers vs. Mavericks picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks last season. The model is up nearly $8,100 over the past two seasons. Last year, it went a stunning 61-33 on top-rated picks against the spread, returning almost $2,500 on those selections alone. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Mavericks vs. Clippers spread: Clippers -5
- Mavericks vs. Clippers over-under: 228.5 points
- Mavericks vs. Clippers money line: Clippers -215, Mavericks +185
- DAL: The Mavericks are 20-12-2 against the spread in the last 34 road games
- LAC: The Clippers are 18-14 against the spread in the last 32 home games
Why the Mavericks can cover
Despite the team's slow start this season, there is every reason to believe in Dallas, especially from an offensive standpoint. The Mavericks led the NBA in offensive efficiency by a comfortable margin during the 2019-20 season, and that stellar performance included top-five marks in myriad categories. So far this season, the shots haven't fallen, but the Mavericks are doing a tremendous job in protecting the ball, committing a turnover on only 10.6 percent of possessions.
The Mavericks are also potent in creating free throw attempts, ranking inside the top-10 in the league in free throw rate, and they are converting 78.8 percent at the stripe. Against a Clippers team that is currently a bottom-five unit in free throw rate allowed, the Maverick should be able to rely on free throw generation to boost overall efficiency.
Why the Clippers can cover
The Clippers are lights-out offensively at the moment, scoring almost 1.2 points per possession through two games. Los Angeles is shooting 42.3 percent from three-point range as a team and, from a matchup standpoint, the Clippers should be able to generate open looks against a Mavericks team yielding 43.5 percent from long range to its opponents. Overall, the Clippers own a top-five effective field goal shooting mark of 60.1 percent, and they are also a top-five rebounding team thus far, snatching 29.3 percent of their own missed shots.
Defensively, the task is difficult against a potent Mavericks offense, but the Clippers are generating a turnover on 16.5 percent of possessions through two games. Los Angeles has multiple options to defend Doncic and, with the team's acumen and physicality, the Clippers are able to contest shots at a high level. In fact, the Clippers are allowing only 30.8 percent shooting from three-point range against a pair of quality opponents in the Lakers and Nuggets.
How to make Mavericks vs. Clippers picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, with the simulations projecting 232 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Clippers vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Mavericks vs. Clippers spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.