The Dallas Mavericks take on the Utah Jazz on Friday evening, aiming to even the score from the previous meeting between the teams. Dallas (8-10) fell to Utah by a 116-104 margin on Wednesday, suffering its third straight loss. In contrast, the Jazz (14-4) are the hottest team in the NBA, winning 10 consecutive games. Utah also maintains a stellar 7-2 mark at home, with Dallas sitting at 6-6 on the road this season. Donovan Mitchell (concussion) is out and Derrick Favors (back) is listed as questionable for the Jazz, with Maxi Kleber (protocols) ruled out for the Mavericks.
Tip-off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET at Vivint Smart Home Arena. The latest Mavericks vs. Jazz odds from William Hill Sportsbook list Utah as a four-point favorite, down half a point from the opening line. The over-under for total points is set at 222.5. Before entering any Jazz vs. Mavericks picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks last season. The model is up nearly $8,100 over the past two-plus seasons. Dating back to last season, it is also on a stunning 69-40 roll on top-rated picks against the spread, returning almost $2,500 on those selections alone. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Mavericks vs. Jazz spread: Jazz -4
- Mavericks vs. Jazz over-under: 222.5 points
- Mavericks vs. Jazz money line: Jazz -175; Mavericks +155
- DAL: The Mavericks are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games
- UTAH: The Jazz are 10-0 against the spread in the last 10 games
Why the Mavericks can cover
The Mavericks are led by the robust offensive pairing of Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. Doncic is an MVP candidate, averaging 27.4 points, 9.7 assists and 9.4 rebounds per game, keying the shot creation for Dallas. Porzingis is a tremendous play finisher, averaging 19.5 points and 7.9 rebounds per game, and he also protects the rim at a high level. As a team, Dallas is scoring almost 1.14 points per possession with Doncic on the floor this season, and the Mavericks were the best overall offense in the NBA in 2019-20.
Some of that comes from protecting the ball, turning the ball over on only 12.2 percent of possessions, and the Jazz are dead-last in the NBA in turnover creation rate at 11.6 percent. Utah is also a bottom-five team at generating free throw attempts on offense, allowing Dallas to be a little bit more aggressive, and the Mavericks are above-average in contesting shots, allowing an effective field goal percentage of 52.8 percent to opponents.
Why the Jazz can cover
Utah's statistical profile is elite, and the Jazz enter on the NBA's longest winning streak. To go along with the strengths of Quin Snyder's team, the Mavericks have some key weaknesses to potentially exploit. Dallas is a bottom-four team in the NBA in both assist rate (56.3 percent) and offensive rebound rate (22.7 percent), which could play into the hands of Utah's defense.
On the other end, the Mavericks deploy a below-average overall defense, yielding more than 1.1 points per possessions, and Dallas is just 25th in the NBA in free throw rate allowed. Moreover, the Jazz are a stellar defensive rebounding team, headlined by Rudy Gobert, and they contest shots at an elite level, potentially making life difficult on Doncic.
How to make Mavericks vs. Jazz picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, with the teams projected to combine for 229 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can get that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Jazz vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Jazz vs. Mavericks spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.