Mavericks vs. Pelicans odds, spread, line: 2019 NBA picks, Dec. 3 predictions from model on 15-3 run

Jrue Holiday and the New Orleans Pelicans will host Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday. The Mavs sit at 13-6, giving them the fourth-best record in the Western Conference. They've won seven of their past eight games, including a 14-point statement win over the Lakers in the Staples Center on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Pelicans enter this game on the heels of five straight losses. In addition to losing top draft pick Zion Williamson (knee) before the season started, the Pelicans have had to deal with an assortment of other week-to-week injuries. The Pelicans are going to be without Derrick Favors (personal) and Kenrich Williams (ankle) on Tuesday. Tip-off for this one is set for 7:30 p.m ET from the Smoothie King Center. Dallas is a four-point favorite, while the over-under, is 233.5 in the Mavericks vs. Pelicans odds. Before you make any Mavericks vs. Pelicans picks or NBA predictions, you'll want to see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It's already returned over $700 in profit on all its top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and enters Week 7 on a blistering 15-3 run on all top-rated NBA against the spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has locked in on Mavericks vs. Pelicans. We can tell you it is leaning over, and it also says one side of the spread cashes in nearly 70 percent of simulations. You can only see that selection at SportsLine. Now here are several NBA betting lines and trend for Mavericks vs. Pelicans:

  • Mavericks vs. Pelicans spread: Mavericks -4
  • Mavericks vs. Pelicans over-under: 233.5 points
  • Mavericks vs. Pelicans money line: Dallas -175, New Orleans +150
  • DAL: Luka Doncic has the highest player efficiency rating (PER) in the Western Conference, ahead of superstars like James Harden, Anthony Davis, and Kawhi Leonard.
  • NOP: Brandon Ingram has scored at least 20 points in all 15 games that he hasn't been forced to leave due to injury this season. He's averaging 26.7 points in that 15-game sample, which would rank seventh in the NBA.

The model is well aware that the Mavericks are simply the far better team on paper. While the Pelicans rank 24th with an average point differential of -4.4, Dallas ranks fourth in the NBA with a +8.0 point differential. Over the past two weeks, they have outscored their opponents 126-107 on average. Dallas shouldn't be bothered by traveling to New Orleans, either. No team has covered the spread at a better rate this season when playing as the away team. 

The Mavs have been a dominant even with Kristaps Porzingis struggling mightily. His 40 percent clip from the field would easily be the worst of his career. He should be able to correct that on Tuesday, as the Pelicans rank just 24th in defensive efficiency and are missing two key pieces of their interior defense. If Porzingis can provide Doncic the help that Dallas expected from its prized young big man, New Orleans could struggle to remain competitive. 

Just because Dallas has been the far superior team, though, doesn't mean it will cover the Mavericks vs. Pelicans spread on Tuesday. 

The model is well aware that while New Orleans is missing Favors and Williams, but they have been getting healthier lately. Lonzo Ball looked great in his return to the lineup on Sunday, putting up 14 points and seven assists. He provides another option to defend Doncic, while also taking some of the pressure off of Holiday to be the team's primary playmaker. 

New Orleans also has benefited from the return of energy players like Josh Hart and Frank Jackson, while top scoring option Ingram has found his groove after an extended absence in mid-November. While this doesn't necessarily mean New Orleans will win this game, it could mean that sportsbooks are undervaluing them based off of their season-long numbers -- most of which were accrued while playing severely short-handed.

So who wins Pelicans vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread hits in nearly 70 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Pelicans vs. Mavericks spread you need to jump on Tuesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out. 

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