The Detroit Pistons welcome the Dallas Mavericks to Little Caesars Arena on Thursday evening. Detroit is 19-43 this season, but the Pistons are much better at home with a 12-16 record and a win on Monday over the Atlanta Hawks. Dallas is 34-27 overall and an impressive 18-13 on the road this season. The Mavericks vs. Pistons injury report will have a big impact on handicapping this game as both sides have several important players on it. Jerami Grant (knee), Wayne Ellington (calf), Cory Joseph (ankle) and Mason Plumlee (rest) are out for the Pistons. Luka Doncic (elbow) and Dorian Finney-Smith (leg) are listed as doubtful for Dallas, while Kristaps Porzingis (ankle), Josh Richardson (hamstring) and JJ Redick (heel) are all probable.
Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET in Detroit. The latest Mavericks vs. Pistons odds from William Hill Sportsbook list Dallas as a 7.5-point favorite, while the over-under for total points is set at 213. Before making any Pistons vs. Mavericks picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned over $9,400 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up over $1,400 on its top-rated picks this season and entered Week 19 of the 2020-21 NBA schedule on a stunning 97-60 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Mavericks vs. Pistons spread: Mavericks -7.5
- Mavericks vs. Pistons over-under: 213 points
- Mavericks vs. Pistons money line: Mavericks -325, Pistons +265
- DAL: The Mavericks are 3-7 against the spread in the last 10 games
- DET: The Pistons are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games
Why the Mavericks can cover
Dallas is coming off one of its best performances of the season. The Mavericks used a 28-0 run to soundly defeat the Warriors by 30 points this week, and Dallas is 4-1 in the last five games. Rick Carlisle's team is potent offensively and well-coached, and the Mavs can exploit some of Detroit's flaws.
Detroit is 25th in the NBA in offensive rating, scoring only 1.08 points per possession. The Pistons are also near the bottom of the league's pecking order in 2-point shooting (50.9 percent) and turnover rate (15.0 percent), making things easier on Dallas. On the opposite end, Detroit is a bottom-tier team in both defensive rebound rate (72.5 percent) and fouls (20.7 per game), further strengthening the Mavericks' projection on offense.
Why the Pistons can cover
Detroit has strengths to take advantage of on both ends of the floor, especially if Doncic sits this one out. The Pistons are a top-five team in free throw creation, getting to the line 23.7 times per game, and Detroit is also above-average on the offensive glass, securing 27.3 percent of its own missed shots. The Mavericks rank last in the NBA in steals, averaging just 6.1 per game, and Detroit can be aggressive as a result. On the defensive end, the Pistons held the Hawks to a season-low 86 points on Monday, and Detroit is No. 2 in the NBA in 3-pointers allowed (11.4 per game).
The Pistons are also above-average in turnover creation rate (14.4 percent), with top-10 marks in blocks (5.1 per game) and fast break points allowed (11.5 per game). Dallas struggles on the offensive glass, pulling down only 23.8 percent of its own misses, and the Mavericks are also one of the five worst teams in producing assists, averaging only 22.5 per game.
How to make Pistons vs. Mavericks picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 204 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time. You can get that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Pistons vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a roll on NBA picks.