Mavericks vs. Warriors odds, line, spread: 2020 NBA picks, Jan. 14 predictions from model on 28-16 run

Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks will square off against a conference foe on Tuesday evening when they travel to take on D'Angelo Russell and the Golden State Warriors. Dallas forward Kristaps Porzingis is questionable with right knee soreness, representing an upgrade in status after being sidelined since Dec. 29. 

Tip-off is at 10:30 p.m. ET at Chase Center. Sportsbooks list the Mavericks as eight-point road favorites, down slightly from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 223 in the latest Mavericks vs. Warriors odds. Before making any Warriors vs. Mavericks picks or NBA predictions, see what SportsLine's projection model has to say

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It's already returned almost $1,800 in profit on all its top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 12 on a blistering 28-16 run on all top-rated NBA spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mavericks vs. Warriors on Tuesday. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Warriors vs. Mavericks:

  • Mavericks vs. Warriors spread: Mavericks -8
  • Mavericks vs. Warriors over-under: 223 points
  • Mavericks vs. Warriors money line: Mavericks -362, Warriors +284
  • DAL: The Mavericks are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 road games
  • GSW: The Warriors are 7-5 against the spread in the last 12 games

Why the Warriors can cover

The model understands that, while the Warriors are clear underdogs in this game, the Mavericks haven't been the same team without Porzingis. Dallas is just 4-4 without him this season and, if the big is unable to play, that would be a boon for Golden State. The Warriors also have a few advantages, including the fact that Golden State is one of the 10 best teams in the NBA at generating free throw attempts. 

That can level the playing field and, with the Warriors also quite adept at creating turnovers defensively, that could swing the pendulum in the home team's direction. Lastly, the Warriors have been notably better when Russell plays this season, and the standout guard is averaging 23.7 points and 6.0 assists per game in his new home. 

Why Mavericks can cover

Even so, Golden State isn't a lock to cover the Mavericks vs. Warriors spread. The model also knows that, even if Porzingis is unable to play, the Mavericks have plenty to bank on in terms of their two-way arsenal. Dallas is an elite offense in every respect, ranking in the top 10 of the NBA in virtually every discernible metric. 

Defensively, the Mavericks are also solid. That includes a top-10 mark in effective field goal percentage defense, illustrating sound fundamentals and positioning, and the Mavs are also one of the league's best at creating turnovers. If Dallas is able to play in transition, it is hard to envision the Warriors putting up much resistance against a dynamic offense. 

How to make Mavericks vs. Warriors picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations.

So who wins Mavericks vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Warriors vs. Mavericks spread you need to jump on Tuesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.  

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