Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets odds: NBA picks from computer model on 60-44 run

The Houston Rockets and Miami Heat face off in a marquee showdown Monday (8 p.m. ET, NBA TV). The Rockets are 10-point favorites. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 214.5, down from 216.

Before you lock in picks on this matchup of top-tier teams, you need to see what SportsLine's advanced computer model is picking.

The SportsLine Projection Model is 60-44 on its top-rated NBA point-spread picks, returning big dividends in the process. Now, it has simulated Heat-Rockets 10,000 times and locked in against-the-spread, over-under and money-line picks.

One we can give away: The total is going down, but the computer believes points will be coming in early and often. The over is hitting in 64 percent of simulations.

It also has strong picks against the spread and straight up. You can only see those over at SportsLine.

The model knows the Rockets have won seven of their past 10, including a big 116-108 Saturday night victory over the Warriors. Houston is 32-12 and 3.5 games behind Golden State in the West.

Chris Paul had 33 points and 11 rebounds Saturday. Houston has had its share of injuries, but when Paul, James Harden and Clint Capela all play, the Rockets are a perfect 17-0. In those games, they're averaging 121.3 points and outscoring the opposition by 15.1.

Houston will also get its No. 4 and No. 6 scorers in Trevor Ariza and Gerald Green back from suspension.

Miami (27-10) has won eight of 10 and is one-half game out of third place in the East. The Heat were without guards Dion Waters, Goran Dragic, their leading scorer, and Tyler Johnson on Saturday, but pulled out a 106-105 victory at Charlotte thanks to Wayne Ellington. Ellington made his first start of the year, hit six 3s and scored 26 points.

Dragic (knee) and Johnson (ankle) will miss Monday's game as well.

Which team will continue to put pressure on a conference leader with a huge Monday night victory, and what team do you need to jump on against the spread? The picks from SportsLine's Projection Model are in! Visit SportsLine now to see the strong point-spread pick for Heat-Rockets from SportsLine's red-hot computer model, and find out.

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