The Boston Celtics have lost only four games all season, but Monday night they host a team that has already come into TD Garden and handed them one of those losses, the Milwaukee Bucks. It all goes down at 7:30 p.m. ET. The Celtics are a 4.5-point home favorite, a line that has moved from an open of -6.5.
The over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 202.5.
The Celtics are 20-4 and already have a 3.5-game lead in the Eastern Conference. One of those losses came to the Bucks (12-9). Granted, it came in Game No. 2, one night after Boston lost star free-agent acquisition Gordon Hayward for the season. But the Bucks are poised to prove they belong in the conversation as a contender in the East.
Before you choose a side for the intriguing Monday night matchup, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model says about it.
The model would have won over 96 percent of CBS Sports office pools in football last season and is now damaging the sportsbooks in NBA games. On its top-rated picks this season, the model has a stellar 31-18 record.
It simulated Bucks-Celtics 10,000 times and came up with some unexpected results.
One we'll give away: The model projects a fast-paced, high-scoring game, with the over of 202.5 hitting in 52 percent of simulations. But what about the spread?
Kyrie Irving wanted a trade out of Cleveland in the offseason, in part because he wanted to be a leader of his own team. He got his wish, and it has really paid off.
Irving is averaging 23.2 points, 5.2 assists and 1.5 steals -- all tops on the team. Boston has seven players averaging 9.1 points or more. That includes Marcus Morris, who had 17 points and eight rebounds off the bench in a 116-111 victory over Phoenix on Saturday.
Boston, which won at Milwaukee on Oct. 26, has won 10 of its past 11 home games, and the Bucks will look different than the last time these teams met.
Milwaukee traded for point guard Eric Bledsoe, and since the move, the Bucks are 8-3.
Giannis Antetokounmpo had 37 points, 13 rebounds, three assists and three steals in the first game between these two teams, and 28 points, 10 rebounds, seven assists and three steals in the second one.
Antetokounmpo had 33 points against the Kings on Saturday night, Milwaukee's third victory in a row.
Will the Celtics continue their dominance over the rest of the East, or can the Bucks keep it within the spread, and even win in the end? The SportsLine Projection Model just locked in its picks. Visit SportsLine now to see results of the computer simulations of Bucks-Celtics, and see what side of the spread is a must-back, all from the same model that's a white-hot 31-18 on NBA picks.
