We're less than a month out from the beginning of NBA training camps, and somehow it doesn't feel like we've even had much of an offseason with this increasingly year-round league. With LeBron James joining the Lakers, with the Celtics getting back clean bills of health for Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward, with the Thunder shedding Carmelo Anthony and the Rockets adding him, a lot of teams at the top of the league figure to change in pretty dramatic ways.
Below we'll try to answer a few of the questions associated with those changes in our latest three-man weave.
What is the Lakers' realistic ceiling this season?
Brad Botkin: If we're talking regular-season wins, and I had to put a number on it, I would say somewhere between 53 and 55 would be an absolute best-case scenario. That would probably put them somewhere around the No. 3 seed in the West, which again feels like a stretch -- though not entirely unreasonable -- with Houston, OKC and even Utah all feeling like superior teams even accounting for the LeBron factor. Remember, the Cavs were only able to win 50 games last year in the Eastern Conference even with James playing all 82 games. He is not likely to do that again, and we might be collectively overestimating the expected leaps of Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball playing next to James. Life in the backseat is a lot different than having your pick of shots, and spots, on the court at all times.
Now, the LeBron factor is a bigger deal come playoff time. We've seen the way he can carry a team in the postseason (again, albeit in the Eastern Conference), and if he somehow continues to play at a best-player-in-the-world level deep into his 16th season, there is a halfway plausible scenario in which the Lakers make a run to the conference finals. No chance they're getting to the Finals. You can forget that right now. But the conference finals? I suppose that's not entirely out of the question if the matchups fall their way.
Ultimately, the Warriors would be the only team I would say the Lakers have absolutely no shot to beat in a seven-game series -- but beating OKC or Houston, and probably even Utah, would be a heck of a long shot in my estimation. To get to the conference finals, they'd likely have to get through two of those teams. That's too much as the Lakers are currently constructed. If they add to their roster in a meaningful way before or at the trade deadline, we can revisit this discussion. But for now, an appearance in the second round feels like a realistic ceiling, and I wouldn't even count on that.
James Herbert: If I allow my imagination to run wild, I can picture them getting to the Western Conference finals. Such is the power of James in the playoffs. This question calls for realism, though, and that means only projecting moderate improvement from the young core and accounting for the fact that several of their role players do not add much value to an offense where James is dominating the ball. It would be wise, then, to look at the Lakers the same way you look at, say, the New Orleans Pelicans: This is a team with a transcendent star, some solid supporting castmembers and a whole bunch of question marks. If Los Angeles wins 50-ish games and loses in the second round, it should not be seen as some sort of disaster, even though we're not used to seeing James go out that way.
All of this, of course, assumes that the Lakers do not make meaningful moves in between now and the trade deadline. The Cleveland Cavaliers front office consistently tweaked the roster around James with midseason trades and signings, and it is obvious that Los Angeles will be an attractive destination for both disgruntled stars and buyout guys. While executives Magic Johnson and Rob Pelinka seem content to wait for next summer to try to land another cornerstone, that doesn't mean they will do nothing in the interim. If they find a way to make the team more balanced, they could raise its ceiling.
Colin Ward-Henninger: In terms of the regular season, I think people are underestimating how much of a learning curve there's going to be for the young Lakers playing alongside James. As great as he is, James likes to play a specific type of offense that doesn't cater to every player's skill set. For someone like Brandon Ingram, who appears ready to take the next step toward being an All-Star level player, getting the ball taken out of his hands and being asked to play second-fiddle to James might be a hard pill to swallow. Even in James' first year with the more established Big Three in Miami, they got off to a slow start while figuring things out. I expect the Lakers' chemistry-building process to take even longer, which could prove costly in a Western Conference where it might take 47 wins to even make the playoffs.
The playoffs, as my colleagues have mentioned, are a different animal. By that time, James will have theoretically figured out his teammates and players will know their roles -- something essential for playoff success. The Lakers picked up Rajon Rondo and Lance Stephenson to offset the playoff inexperience of the rest of their roster, and after seeing what James did with the Cavs last season, anything short of beating the Warriors seems to be in play. And if the Lakers smell blood and go after someone big at the trade deadline (Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard), James could be one significant Golden State injury away from getting right back to the NBA Finals.
Are the Rockets still the second-best team in the West?
Botkin: Not definitively. For all the talk about their offense, it as their defense that really make them contenders last season. It was certainly the reason they had the Warriors on the brink in the conference finals. Losing Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute was a big hit to their ability to switch everything on the perimeter. Also, at this point in his career, any team that thinks they are getting closer to a championship by adding Carmelo Anthony is fooling itself.
By that same logic, the Thunder getting rid of Anthony is a big reason why I think they have a strong case as the second-best team in the West. I don't know if their regular-season record will reflect that, because any team with Russell Westbrook feels like it's going to play up and down to its competition on a nightly basis. But come playoff time, the Thunder are the most defensively equipped team to compete with the Warriors.
From a pure talent/versatility standpoint, Westbrook and Paul George roughly cancel out Chris Paul and James Harden. The same could be said for Clint Capela and Steven Adams. So to me, OKC's defense breaks the tie. They got better on that end, Houston got worse, and as such, the gap that existed between the two last year has been all but eliminated. Add in Utah, and it's a three-horse race for the second-best team. It could be a photo finish.
Herbert: Probably, but it's not as obvious as it was at the end of last season. While they got by just fine without Mbah a Moute in the playoffs, losing him and Ariza changed the shape of the team. Last season, coach Mike D'Antoni could play them both next to PJ Tucker in switch-everything lineups that grinded opposing offenses to a halt and spaced the floor for Houston's star guards on the other end. Adding Anthony to the mix might make an already imposing attack even more so, but it's hard to imagine assistant coach Jeff Bzdelik's switching scheme working as well as it did last season.
If the Jazz can stay healthy, there could be real competition near the top of the Western Conference standings. From Jan. 19 onward last season, when Rudy Gobert was back from his knee injury, they were 30-8 with the best net rating and by far the best defense in the league. Utah has essentially the same personnel this coming season, and everybody expects rising star Donovan Mitchell to build on his spectacular rookie year. In a series, I'd still pick the Rockets, but I wouldn't be shocked if the Jazz wound up with home-court advantage.
Ward-Henninger: A lot of people think the Rockets are going to suffer a big drop-off this season due to the departure of Ariza and Mbah a Moute, but I still think they're a clear second in the West. Of course losing two rangy, switchy defenders is never a good thing, but picking up James Ennis (36 percent 3-pointers with Memphis last season) as a stop-gap while Anthony figures out his role is a pretty decent fallback. As long as Harden, Paul and Clint Capela stay relatively healthy, D'Antoni's system is perfect for the regular season -- they probably won't win 65 games, but getting into the mid-to-high 50s will put them ahead of any West team besides Golden State.
The playoffs are where the Ariza and Mbah a Moute losses really hurt, but by then you have to imagine that Daryl Morey will have pulled some sort of rabbit out of his general manager hat to provide a missing piece for the pursuit of that elusive NBA Finals appearance. While I think the Thunder will be a real threat this season and the Jazz are knocking on the door, the Rockets are still the second-best team in the West if healthy.
Which player will make the biggest leap this season?
Botkin: The question we're really asking here is: Can anyone be this year's Victor Oladipo? That kind of leap, from a relatively replaceable starter to an All-NBA player in his fifth year in the league, is rare. The Wolves are hoping Andrew Wiggins might make a similar leap, but don't bet on it. My big-leaper prediction is Atlanta's John Collins. He's only entering his second season, so I don't know if that qualifies as a "leap" or just the next step in his evolution, but either way, you're going to hear more about him this year.
Last season, Collins was largely overshadowed by his star-studded rookie class that included Jayson Tatum and Donovan Mitchell, but he was solid by normal rookie standards. This year, the attention Trae Young will bring to the Hawks will clue a lot more people in to Collins, an athletic beast who has stretched his shooting range this summer. Last year, Collins made 34 percent of his 3-pointers but on less than one attempt per game.
In talking with new coach Lloyd Pierce and general manager Travis Schlenk, don't be surprised if Collins' attempts from 3-point range go way up this year with something close to a 35-37 percent mark not being unreasonable. Last year, he averaged 10 points and seven boards; this year, those numbers could easily go to 17 or 18 points a game and 9-10 boards. He does that, and suddenly he's threatening to get All-Star consideration in the East. That qualifies as a leap to me.
Herbert: Dejounte Murray. The Spurs guard is already an advanced defender and a ridiculously good rebounder, and now, with a radically different team around him, it is time for him to take a step forward as a playmaker. It is understandable, given his age -- he turns 22 in a few weeks -- and the veterans around him, that Murray tended to defer on the offensive end throughout his first two seasons, even after being given the starting point guard spot. Going forward, that will no longer be the case.
It will be interesting to see how Murray splits ball-handling responsibility with newcomer DeMar DeRozan, who got used to assuming a de facto point guard role in the Toronto Raptors' offense. DeRozan should run his share of pick-and-rolls, but I'd like to see Gregg Popovich empower Murray, challenge him to get in the paint and see if the team can create easier slashing opportunities for DeRozan. If Murray is indeed San Antonio's point guard of the future, this is what's best for his development and the long-term architecture of the team.
Ward-Henninger: Oladipo was a former No. 2 overall pick whose original team gave up on him before he could realize his full potential. The exact same thing could be said for Jabari Parker. Thanks to his two ACL injuries and the emergence of Giannis Antetokounmpo, we never got to see Parker fully unleashed in Milwaukee. Just like Oladipo and the Pacers last season, Parker and the Bulls have minimal expectations that can only be exceeded, and the stage is set for Parker to become a No. 1 offensive option and change his shoddy defensive reputation.
He's coming into this season fully healthy, and has motivation to perform both on the personal side (he's making his emotional return to his hometown) and on the financial side (the Bulls have a team option for the second year of Parker's two-year, $40 million contract). Is Parker going to become an All-Star while leading the Bulls to 48 wins? Probably not. But, still only 23 years old, he can re-establish himself as one of the most promising young players in the league while getting significant minutes on a team where he finally feels wanted.
