Now that we're in the thick of the NBA playoffs, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals. All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets
Finals clinchers tend not to be close. The Game 5 line is nine points. Four of the past six championship clinchers have been decided by at least nine points. The Nuggets just took both road games in Miami, and have lost only a single home game this entire postseason. That was against Miami in Game 2, but the Heat made just under half of their 3-point attempts in that game. Doing so again seems unlikely. The Heat did well just to get here, but the gap between these teams is obvious. Expect the Nuggets to be crowned champions on Monday. The Pick: Nuggets -9
The Heat have been held below 100 points in three of the four games they've played in the Finals. Therefore, if you're picking the over, you're doing it because you either believe that the Nuggets will over-perform offensively or that the Heat will make a bunch of 3-pointers. I'd still lean on the former even with offense at such a premium in this matchup. Michael Porter Jr. is 3-of-22 from 3-point range in the Finals, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is 4-of-14, and Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray combined for just 38 points in Game 4. Eventually the offense is going explode. Expect it to happen in the clincher. The Pick: Over 208.5
Jimmy Butler has faced elimination in three playoff games over the past two seasons. He's averaged 33.3 points in those games, but more importantly, he's averaged 27 shot attempts in those games. Butler can be a frustrating player to bet on for offense props because his volume swings so much, but this is when he starts acting like a normal superstar. Butler is going to take a lot of shots in Game 5. They may or may not go in, but at this volume, even if he's playing on an injured ankle, the over is the right pick. The Pick: Butler Over 26.5 Points
The Porter Jr. experience has been tumultuous to say the least during the Finals. He's averaging just eight points on 29.3% shooting for the series. But he's still a healthy, 17.4 points per game scorer in a home game with a points total line roughly seven points below his regular-season average. As long as that remains the case, I'm going to keep picking Porter's overs. All it takes is a couple of 3-pointers, some free throws and a timely cut or two. The Pick: Porter Jr. Over 10.5 Points
The Heat have done a good job of inverting Denver's typical offensive roles. In this series, Nikola Jokic has been the scorer and Jamal Murray has been the passer. Jokic has been held below five assists in two of the past three games, while Murray has at least 10 assists in all four games. Jokic is so comfortable going with the flow against defensive adjustments that I'd view his assist total as the likelier figure to remain down. If Miami's defense is built for him to score, he'll just score. Murray is a bit likelier to force the issue. The Pick: Jokic Under 9.5 Assists
