NBA playoff picture, standings, projections, magic numbers: Magic jump Heat for No. 8; Thunder move up at Spurs' expense

The Magic took advantage of Miami's loss to Boston Wednesday night by beating the Knicks to jump the Heat, for the moment, into the No. 8 seed out East. Entering Thursday, there are four teams within one games of each other -- the Pistons, Nets, Magic and Heat -- fighting for the East's final three spots.

What follows is everything you need to know about where things stand entering Thursday, April 4. Teams are listed in order of current seed, with the projected finishing seed, along with the SportsLine data used to determine that finishing seed, below. This post will continue to update for the remainder of the season as we keep track of these races right down to the wire.

NOTE: Our SportsLine model, developed by predictive data engineer Stephen Oh, simulates the entire season 10,000 times to produce the most unbiased and precise projections imaginable.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

No. 1 seed all but sealed

Golden State Warriors (No. 1 seed)

The Warriors have a two-game lead in the loss column over the Nuggets with five games to play. They also own the tiebreaker, making that lead effectively three games.

Magic number to clinch No. 1 seed: Three
Projected seed: No. 1
Current first-round matchup: vs. Spurs
Tiebreaker: Own tiebreaker over Denver via 3-1 head-to-head advantage

Fight for No. 2 seed

Denver Nuggets (No. 2 seed)

The Nuggets got a monster win Wednesday night in their quest to hang onto the No. 2 seed, beating San Antonio handily on a back-to-back. Denver remains two games up in the loss column over both Houston and Portland. Houston has the tiebreaker over Denver, so that is still in real play. The Blazers can still catch Denver, too, with two matchups remaining, but Denver is up 2-0 in that season series and has a far better division record, meaning even if the Blazers win the remaining two matchups to tie the season series 2-2, the Nuggets would have the tiebreaker via that better division record. The Blazers would have to pass the Nuggets outright.

Magic number to clinch No. 2 seed: Two
Projected seed: No. 2
Current first-round matchup: vs. Thunder
Tiebreaker: Already lost tiebreaker to Houston and Golden State; already clinched tiebreaker over Portland via better division record

Houston Rockets (No. 3 seed)

The Rockets beat the Clippers Wednesday night to remain ahead of Portland by percentage points. Important note: Houston has played one more game so far so it has the lead with one more win, but the two teams are tied in the loss column and Portland has the tiebreaker. If they both win out, Portland would get the No. 3 seed.

Magic number to clinch top-four seed: One
Projected seed: No. 3
Current first-round matchup: vs. Clippers
Tiebreaker: Owns tiebreaker over Denver; already lost tiebreaker to Portland

Portland Trail Blazers (No. 4 seed)

Portland matched Houston's win with a victory over Memphis to remain tied in the loss column with the Rockets. If they both win out, the Blazers have the tiebreaker over Houston. The Blazers can also catch Denver for the No. 2 seed, but that is less likely. As mentioned above, Portland has back-to-back upcoming games with Denver. A sweep would tie the season series 2-2 but Denver is assured of ending the season with a better division record, which ensures the tiebreaker over Portland notmatter how those two games turn out. To get the No. 2 seed, the Blazers would have to pass the Nuggets outright.

Magic number to clinch top-four seed: Two
Projected seed: No. 4
Current first-round matchup: vs. Jazz
Tiebreaker: Clinched tiebreaker over Houston; currently losing tiebreaker to Jazz via division record; already lost tiebreaker to Nuggets via either head-to-head or division record.

Entering the 5-8 logjam

Utah Jazz (No. 5 seed)

The Jazz hung on to beat the Suns Wednesday night to remain two games back of the No. 4 Blazers, and they also moved two games ahead of the No. 6 Clippers by virtue of L.A.'s loss to Houston.

Magic number to clinch No. 5 seed: Two
Projected seed: No. 5
Current first-round matchup: at Blazers
Tiebreaker: Clinched tiebreaker over Spurs and Clippers; currently own tiebreaker over Portland via division record; lost tiebreaker to OKC; currently losing tiebreaker with Houston (division leader)

Los Angeles Clippers (No. 6 seed)

The Clips lost to Houston Wednesday night, and in doing so lost a game on the Jazz, who they are chasing for the No. 5 seed. The Clippers also had their lead over the No. 7 Thunder trimmed to just one game with three to play.

Magic number to clinch top-six seed: Two
Projected seed: No. 6
Current first-round matchup: at Rockets
Tiebreaker: Already lost tiebreaker to Jazz; currently losing tiebreaker to Spurs via conference record; currently have slim tiebreaker advantage over OKC via conference record

Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 7 seed)

OKC was inactive Wednesday night but still moved up to the No. 7 seed by virtue of San Antonio's loss to Denver. Getting out of the No. 8 seed is huge, because it would mean avoiding the No. 1 Warriors until the conference finals. There isn't another team in the West that OKC wouldn't have at least a puncher's chance to beat.

Remember when the Thunder were looking like a great bet to finish in the top four, if not the top three? Things change fast in the West. The fact that San Antonio owns the tiebreaker over OKC is a big hurdle for the Thunder to climb, and the main reason our projections have them ultimately falling to the No. 8 spot.

Magic Number to clinch No. 7 seed: Three
Projected seed: No. 8
Current first-round matchup: at Nuggets
Tiebreaker: Own tiebreaker over Houston, Portland and Utah; already lost tiebreaker to Spurs; currently losing tiebreaker to Clippers

San Antonio Spurs (No. 8 seed)

The Spurs got throttled by the Nuggets Wednesday to fall to the No. 8 seed. They are one game back in the loss column of OKC, but they do hold the tiebreaker if it comes to that. As you can see below, because of that tiebreaker, our projections still like the Spurs to come out as the No. 7 seed over OKC when it's all said and done.

Projected seed: No. 7
Current first-round matchup: at Warriors
Tiebreaker: Clinched tiebreaker over Thunder; currently own tiebreaker over Clippers via conference record; already lost tiebreaker to Jazz

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Top three seeds pretty set

Milwaukee Bucks (No. 1 seed)

The Bucks can clinch the No. 1 seed, both in the East and overall, with a win Thursday night vs. the Sixers.

Magic Number to clinch No. 1 seed: One
Current first-round matchup: vs. Magic

Toronto Raptors (No. 2 seed)

Toronto kept its slim chances of catching Milwaukee for the No. 1 seed alive with a win Wednesday night, but it would require the Raptors winning out (three more games) and the Bucks losing out (four more games). Toronto has already sealed the No. 2 seed.

Current first-round matchup: vs. Nets

Philadelphia 76ers (No. 3 seed)

The Sixers lost to the Hawks Wednesday night. They now have a three-game lead over Boston and Indiana in the loss column with four games left. If the Sixers lose to the Bucks Thursday night (a back-to-back for Philly), and Boston then beats Indiana on Friday, the race for No. 3 is going to get very interesting over the final week.

Magic number to clinch No. 3 seed: One
Projected seed: No. 3
Current first-round matchup: vs. Pistons
Tiebreaker: Own tiebreaker over Pacers; already lost tiebreaker to Bucks, Raptors and Celtics

Fight for final home-court spot

Boston Celtics (No. 4 seed)

The Celtics took care of Miami Wednesday night, remaining ahead of Indiana via owning the tiebreaker and picking up a game on No. 3 Philadelphia, which, as stated above, lost to Atlanta.

Magic number to clinch playoff spot: Three
Projected seed: No. 5
Current first-round matchup: vs. Pacers
Tiebreaker: Clinched tiebreaker over Sixers; currently own tiebreaker over Indiana via 2-1 head-to-head advantage with one matchup left

Indiana Pacers (No. 5 seed)

The Pacers are tied in the loss column with Boston. The Celtics lead the season series 2-1, with both teams playing Friday night. That game will obviously go a long way in determining the No. 4 seed.

Clinched at least No. 5 seed
Projected seed: No. 4
Current first-round matchup: vs. Celtics
Tiebreaker: Already lost tiebreaker to Sixers; currently losing season series with Boston 2-1 with one to play

The final three seeds

Detroit Pistons (No. 6 seed)

This is where things get dicey in the East, with four teams still in the hunt for the final three spots. The Pistons are in the best position of the three -- Detroit has a one-game lead in the loss column over Brooklyn and Orlando, and a full game up on Miami with four games to play. SportsLine gives Detroit a 98.6 percent chance to make the playoffs.

Magic number to clinch playoff spot: Three
Projected seed: No. 6
Current first-round matchup: at Sixers
Tiebreaker: Clinched tiebreaker over Magic, lost tiebreaker to Nets, currently lead Miami for tiebreaker via conference record

Brooklyn Nets (No. 7 seed)

The Nets fell to Milwaukee Wednesday night and are now tied in the loss column with Orlando and Miami. The Nets have the tiebreaker over the Magic and have one more win than Miami with one head-to-head matchup remaining. The Nets host the Heat in their final game of the season. That could be a play-in game.

Magic number to clinch playoff spot: Three
Projected seed: No. 7
Current first-round matchup: at Raptors
Tiebreaker: Clinched tiebreaker over Pistons and Magic; trail season series vs. Miami 2-1 with one to play

Orlando Magic (No. 8 seed)

The Magic beat the Knicks Wednesday night and Miami fell to Boston. Orlando holds the No. 8 seed entering play Thursday.

Magic number to clinch playoff spot: Three
Projected seed: No. 8
Tiebreaker: Clinched tiebreaker over Miami; already lost tiebreaker to Nets and Pistons

Miami Heat (No. 9 seed)

Miami fell to Boston Wednesday night while the Magic beat the Knicks. The Heat fall to the No. 9 seed and our projections, because Orlando has the tiebreaker, see them staying there. That said, the Nets are probably the likeliest team Miami can catch with one game left against Brooklyn and just a half-game separating them entering Thursday. As stated above, the Nets and Heat close the season vs. one another. It's in Brooklyn. That could be a play-in game.

Projected seed: No. 9
Tiebreaker: Lost tiebreaker to Orlando; currently trailing Detroit via conference record; currently leading season series with Brooklyn 2-1 with one matchup left