NBA Playoffs 2019: Spurs vs. Nuggets odds, picks, Game 3 predictions from proven model on 77-62 roll

After winning one of two games in Denver, the San Antonio Spurs have positioned themselves to take control of the series as it shifts to San Antonio Thursday in the 2019 NBA Playoffs. The Spurs are 5-1 against the Nuggets in playoff series historically, and a big reason for that is San Antonio's 12-3 home playoff record against Denver. Tipoff is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET from AT&T Center in San Antonio. The Spurs hold a 74-19 edge over the Nuggets all time in games played in San Antonio. San Antonio is a 4.5-point favorite in the latest Spurs vs. Nuggets odds, while the over-under for total points scored is set at 208. You'll want to see the NBA playoff predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model before laying any Spurs vs. Nuggets picks down.

The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 27 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 294-242 record on all top-rated picks, returning more than $3,500 in profit to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA picks against the spread, entering Week 27 on a strong 77-62 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.

Now the model has dialed in on Spurs vs. Nuggets. We can tell you it's leaning over, but it's also generated a strong against the spread pick that hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. That one is available exclusively at SportsLine.

San Antonio has crushed the Nuggets in five of the six series they've faced each other in all time, either sweeping the series or winning 4-1. The teams last met in the 2007 Western Conference first round with San Antonio winning the final four games after the Nuggets claimed Game 1 at San Antonio. Denver, however, has lost 13 in a row at San Antonio, with the Nuggets' last win coming on March 4, 2012. Defensively, the Spurs are holding Denver's leading scorer, Nikola Jokic (20.1 ppg), to just 15.5 ppg in the first two games of the series.

Despite being a No. 7 seed, the Spurs hold the statistical edge in scoring (17th at 111.7 ppg to 19th at 110.7), field-goal percentage (second at .478 to 13th at .466), 3-point percentage (first at .392 to 17th at .351) and free-throw percentage (first at .819 to 20th at .755). 

But just because San Antonio has had Denver's number historically doesn't guarantee it will cover the Spurs vs. Nuggets spread Thursday in the NBA Playoffs 2019. 

That's because the Nuggets have shown resilience. After losing Game 1 and trailing by 19 in Game 2, Denver rallied to outscore the Spurs 39-23 in the final 12 minutes for a 114-105 victory. The Nuggets, second in the league in assists (27.4), dished out 29 in Game 2. Denver had 41 in an April 3 win over San Antonio and has won 32 of its last 38 games when handing out 30 or more assists in a game.

Three Nuggets players have been red hot against the Spurs. Jamal Murray (18.2 ppg) is averaging 20.5 points in the series, including 24 points in Game 2, while Gary Harris (12.9 ppg) is averaging 21.5 points, including 23 in Game 2. Paul Millsap (12.6 ppg) had 20 points in Game 2 and is averaging 16 points in the series.

So who wins Nuggets vs. Spurs? And which side of the spread can you bank on in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Nuggets vs. Spurs spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $3,500 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.

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