NBA Playoffs 2019: Spurs vs. Nuggets odds, picks, Game 4 predictions from proven model on 77-62 roll
SportsLine's advanced computer model simulated Saturday's Spurs vs. Nuggets game 10,000 times.
Despite having the seventh-best regular-season record in the Western Conference, the San Antonio Spurs have upped their game in the 2019 NBA Playoffs and can put the Denver Nuggets on the brink of elimination if the Spurs can secure the home victory in Game 4 of their first-round playoff series on Saturday at 5:30 p.m. ET. The Spurs have won 14 in a row over the Nuggets on their home floor and hold a 2-1 lead in the series. The Nuggets, meanwhile, must buck a disturbing trend which has them going just 19-75 all-time in San Antonio. San Antonio is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Spurs vs. Nuggets odds, while the over-under for total points scored is set at 208.5. You'll want to see the NBA Playoffs 2019 predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model before laying any Spurs vs. Nuggets picks of your own down.
The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 27 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 294-242 record on all top-rated picks, returning more than $3,500 in profit to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA picks against the spread, entering Week 27 on a strong 77-62 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.
Now the model has dialed in on Spurs vs. Nuggets. We can tell you it's leaning over, but it's also generated a strong against the spread pick that hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. That one is available exclusively at SportsLine.
The model has taken into account that San Antonio is dominating Denver in many statistical categories during the playoffs, including points in the paint (third at 144 compared to fifth at 136), rebounding (fifth at 47.3 compared to 13th at 41.3) and scoring (eighth at 108 ppg compared to ninth at 106 ppg).
Guard Derrick White (9.9 ppg) has made the biggest difference in the series so far. He is averaging 23 ppg in the first three games, including a 36-point performance in Game 3. He has scored in double figures in six of the past eight games, including 14 or more in five of those. Also a force in the series has been DeMar Rozen (21.2 ppg), who is averaging 24.7 points in three games.
Even so, San Antonio isn't a lock to cover the Spurs vs. Nuggets spread in the NBA Playoffs 2019 on Saturday.
That's because Denver always has a chance due to its defense. The Nuggets ranked among the top teams in several defensive categories during the regular season, including first in opponents' rebounds (42.5) and opponents' 3-point field goal percentage (33.9) and sixth in points allowed (106.7). The Nuggets are also effective at sharing the rock and are third in the playoffs in assists at 28.3 per game.
So who wins Nuggets vs. Spurs? And which side of the spread can you bank on in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Nuggets vs. Spurs spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $3,500 on top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.
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