The Timberwolves were dealt a huge blow when it was announced that Karl-Anthony Towns has a meniscus injury that will sideline him indefinitely. Towns has missed two games this season, and Anthony Edwards has picked up some of the slack, scoring 34 points in each. That makes his NBA player props bar of 30.5 points (-147/+108) highly intriguing for Thursday's NBA schedule. Edwards, Rudy Gobert and the Timberwolves' No. 1 scoring defense will visit Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam and the Pacers' No. 1 scoring offense.
Meanwhile, Haliburton's NBA props total for his scoring is 18.5 points, a bar he's failed to reach in five of his last six games. Given Minnesota's league-best defense, is backing the Under for Haliburton the NBA prop pick to make? In regards to Edwards, should you lean Over with his points total in a multi-game parlay or SGP? Before making any NBA prop picks on sites like PrizePicks for Thursday, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 20 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 64-40 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,200. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
For Thursday's NBA schedule, the model has locked in its NBA best bets. You can only see the model's NBA prop picks at SportsLine.
Top NBA prop bet for Thursday
After simulating every game on Thursday's NBA schedule 10,000 times, the model is picking Under 10.5 assists for Mavericks guard Luka Doncic at -135 odds. Doncic is averaging a career-high of 9.8 assists but the Mavs host the Heat tonight at 7:30, and Miami has been a thorn in his side throughout his career. Of all 29 NBA opponents, Doncic averages fewer assists versus Miami (6.7) than any other squad. The Heat Culture, which prides itself in defensive intensity, has held Doncic under 10.5 assists in all 10 of his career games against Miami.
This season, Miami is allowing an average of 8.73 assists per game to opposing point guards, which includes all players operating the PG position. Thus, that would take into account not just Doncic, but also when Kyrie Irving runs the point, so the stats clearly favor Under 10.5 assists for Doncic. Since the All-Star break, starting point guards are averaging just 4.3 assists in six games versus Miami, with no starter having logged more than eight assists during this stretch. The model comfortably backs the Under (-135), with Doncic projected to finish with 9.0 assists on average. You can see which other NBA picks to back here.
All NBA prop bets for Thursday's NBA schedule
7 p.m. ET: Pistons vs. Nets
See Nets vs. Pistons props here
7 p.m. ET: Timberwolves vs. Pacers
See Pacers vs. Timberwolves props here
7:30 p.m. ET: Heat vs. Mavericks
See Mavericks vs. Heat props here
9 p.m. ET: Raptors vs. Suns
See Suns vs. Raptors props here
10 p.m. ET: Celtics vs. Nuggets
See Nuggets vs. Celtics props here
10 p.m. ET: Bulls vs. Warriors
See Warriors vs. Bulls props here
10 p.m. ET: Spurs vs. Kings
See Kings vs. Spurs props here
How to make NBA prop picks for Thursday
The model has simulated every NBA game 10,000 times and has some surprising projections for Thursday's schedule. You can only see the model's NBA best bets and SGP picks at SportsLine.
Which NBA prop picks should you target on Thursday? Visit SportsLine now to see the NBA best bets from an advanced model that is on a 64-40 run on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.
