Nuggets vs. Bucks odds: NBA picks from expert who's 20-10 on Denver basketball games

The surging Milwaukee Bucks, winners of nine of their last 11, play host to the Denver Nuggets on Thursday at 8 p.m. ET. Bucks forward Jabari Parker is nursing a knee injury but is likely to play. For the Nuggets, guard Jamal Murray is fighting through chest soreness and is expected to suit up.

The Bucks opened as 4.5-point favorites and now are laying three. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, has risen from an opening of 210.5 to 212.5.

Denver is 10-4 against the spread in its prior 14 games against Milwaukee and the under is 5-0 in the Bucks' last five home games.

Before picking either side, you need to read what SportsLine NBA expert Galin Dragiev has to say. Dragiev has put together a blistering 20-10 run on his Nuggets point-spread picks, and we can tell you he's leaning toward the over in this contest.

Before Tuesday night's Spurs-Nuggets game, Dragiev pointed out San Antonio (+6) would be gassed playing the second game of a back-to-back in the high Rockies altitude and would run out of steam late. The result: Denver outscored San Antonio by 11 points in the fourth quarter to win, 117-109, allowing Dragiev to cash on the exact type of game he called for.

Now, Dragiev, who has a strong analytical background, has examined every matchup, every player and every trend for Nuggets-Bucks and locked in his pick.

He knows the Nuggets will cover the spread if they continue their hot shooting. Over their last four games, they're averaging 117 points on 51 percent shooting. Guard Gary Harris leads the team in both scoring and steals and his active hands will play a pivotal role in disrupting the Bucks' offense.

Milwaukee's best shot at covering the spread is to slow down the tempo and deny the rock to center Nikola Jokic, the rare big man to lead his team in rebounds and assists. Over the last six games, the Bucks are yielding just 93 points and they will need another strong defensive effort to halt the offensive-minded Nuggets.

So what side of Nuggets-Bucks do you need to be all over? Visit SportsLine now to see the strong point-spread pick by Dragiev, who has absolutely crushed the NBA to find out.

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