Nuggets vs. Mavericks odds, line: NBA picks, predictions from model on 54-42 run

The Denver Nuggets resume their chase to catch Golden State for the No. 1 seed and home-court advantage in the Western Conference playoffs Thursday when they host the Dallas Mavericks. The Nuggets (44-22) are one game behind the Warriors in the loss column with 16 games remaining. Playing the second game of a three-game homestand and having played only once since March 8, Denver should be well rested. Meanwhile, the Mavericks (27-40) are in wait-until-next-year mode, having lost their past six games and 11 of 12. Tipoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET at the Pepsi Center. Denver is favored by 11 points in the latest Nuggets vs. Mavericks odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 221. Before making any Nuggets vs. Mavericks picks of your own, be sure to check out the NBA predictions from SportsLine's proven model. 

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 22 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 240-187 record on all top-rated picks, returning almost $4,000 to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA picks against the spread, entering Week 22 on a strong 54-42 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.

Now the model has honed in on Nuggets vs. Mavericks. We can tell you it is leaning over, and it has an against-the-spread pick that cashes in 60 percent of simulations. That one is only available at SportsLine.

The model has considered that Denver showed a renewed commitment to sharing the ball in its previous game. Against the Timberwolves on Tuesday, the Nuggets kept the ball moving constantly on offense, found teammates for open layups and 3-pointers and piled up 40 assists (the team's most since April 2013) for a 133-107 victory.

Center Nikola Jokic is a triple-double threat every time he hits the floor, leading the team in scoring (20.4), rebounding (10.7) and assists (7.6). Point guard Jamal Murray adds another 18.4 points and 4.9 assists. That inside-outside combination has helped Denver to an offensive rating of 113.1, fourth best in the NBA.

But just because Denver has shown it can score doesn't guarantee it will win or cover the Nuggets vs. Mavericks spread. 

Even though Dallas hasn't found the win column much over the last month, the Mavericks have put a scare in some playoff-bound teams recently. Houston needed a Chris Paul block to edge Dallas, 94-93, on Sunday. Two days later, despite playing with an ailing Luka Doncic, the Mavericks hung with San Antonio for four quarters before falling, 112-105.

Rookie guard Jalen Brunson has proven to be quite the find. The second round pick from Villanova scored a career-high 34 points against San Antonio, making 12 of 16 shots, including 3 of 6 on 3-pointers. In the last five games, Brunson is averaging 18.2 points and 5.2 assists while shooting an absurd 60.7 percent from the field and 100.0 percent (16 of 16) from the free throw line.

So who wins Mavericks vs. Nuggets? And which side of the spread can you bank on in 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Mavericks vs. Nuggets spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $4,000, and find out.

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