The Denver Nuggets travel to San Francisco to take on the Golden State Warriors in a nationally-televised battle on Thursday evening. The Nuggets enter the game on the second night of a back-to-back and with a few injury concerns. Paul Millsap (knee), Gary Harris (groin) and Jamal Murray (ankle) are all day-to-day, with some uncertainty as to which will be able to suit up against Golden State.
Tip-off is at 10:30 p.m. ET at the Chase Center. Sportsbooks list the Nuggets as six-point road favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 211 in the latest Nuggets vs. Warriors odds. Before making any Nuggets vs. Warriors picks or NBA predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It's already returned over $2,000 in profit on all its top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 12 on a blistering 28-16 run on all top-rated NBA spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Nuggets vs. Warriors spread: Nuggets -6
- Nuggets vs. Warriors over-under: 211 points
- Nuggets vs. Warriors money line: Nuggets -306, Warriors +244
- DEN: The Nuggets have covered the spread in four of the last five games
- GSW: The Warriors are 2-5 in the last seven games against the spread
Why the Nuggets can cover
The model understands that, on paper, the Nuggets are the vastly superior team. Some of that can be mitigated if members of Denver's core are unable to play but, even with the Nuggets operating in the middle of the pack defensively, this is a favorable matchup.
The Warriors are currently dead-last in the NBA in offensive efficiency, and the Nuggets should be able to develop an effective scheme, even if personnel is an issue at times. Beyond that, Denver has the best player on the floor in Nikola Jokic, which is often an X-factor in NBA matchups.
Why the Warriors can cover
Even with the talent edge, Denver isn't a lock to cover the Nuggets vs. Warriors spread on the road. The model has also considered that, while the Warriors are in the middle of a lengthy losing streak, Golden State does have some advantages in this matchup. Denver enters with a laundry list of injury concerns and, on top of that, Golden State has the advantage in rest after a day off on Wednesday. D'Angelo Russell could also be a vital piece for the Warriors, as the veteran guard is averaging 23.3 points and 6.0 assists per game this season.
His presence makes Golden State considerably better than when he sits. The Warriors are also a top-10 unit in the NBA at generating free throw attempts and, on the other end, Golden State will attempt to stifle Denver by using its propensity for creating turnovers, landing in the top five of the NBA in the category.
How to make Nuggets vs. Warriors picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations.
So who wins Nuggets vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Warriors vs. Nuggets spread you need to jump on Thursday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.