Pelicans vs. Grizzlies odds, line: MLK Day NBA picks, predictions, from model on 7-2 run

The grand NBA tradition of the Memphis Grizzlies hosting a game on Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Day resumes on Monday when they take on the New Orleans Pelicans in the nationally televised Western Conference matchup. It's the 17th annual year Memphis hosts an NBA game, and is 7-9 on the holiday honoring its hometown Civil Rights hero. The latest Pelicans vs. Grizzlies odds have Memphis favored by three points, while the over-under, or total points Vegas thinks will be scored, is set at 220. Neither team comes in especially hot, and both will have key players missing from the lineup. With so many factors to consider before locking in any Pelicans vs. Grizzlies picks and NBA predictions for MLK Day, you'll want to first see what the SportsLine Projection Model is saying about this game.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks this season. It entered Week 14 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 159-118 record on all top-rated picks, returning well over $3,000 to anybody following. And it was particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA picks against the spread in Week 13, going a blistering 7-2. Anybody following it is up huge. 

Now, it has analyzed all relevant data and crunched the numbers for Pelicans vs. Grizzlies. We can tell you it's leaning under, but it's also generated a strong against-the-spread pick that hits in well over half of simulations, showing clear value to one side. That pick is only available at SportsLine. 

The Grizzlies certainly aren't playing well right now, in an 1-11 funk with only two against-the-spread covers in that span. But the offensively-challenged team gets a break facing a Pelicans team that not only ranks 28th in the NBA in total defense, but will be without rebounding and shot-blocking superstar Anthony Davis (finger).

Marc Gasol is there to take advantage. The 10-year veteran center is having one of the better seasons -- while his scoring his down (15.2 ppg), his rebounding numbers (8.5 rpg) are the highest in six years, and he's averaging more assists (4.7) than he ever has. Leading scorer Mike Conley (19.8 ppg) is averaging 10 assists in two games against the Pelicans, while JaMychal Green averages 10.6 ppg on the season, but 20 ppg against New Orleans.

But just because Memphis is playing at home against a banged-up New Orleans squad, there's no guarantee they'll cover the Pelicans vs. Grizzlies spread. 

Surely, the Pelicans will miss Davis, out 1-2 weeks (finger). But few teams have a player coming off the bench like Julius Randle. Randle, who has started 25 of 45 games, mostly in place of Nikola Mirotic, is the team's third-leading scorer (20.1 ppg) and is No. 2 in rebounding (9.2). Together with Mirotic (16.7 ppg, 8.4 rpg), New Orleans still has one of the more-productive front courts.

Meanwhile, PG Jrue Holiday has taken his game to a new level lately, averaging 22 points, 5.5 rebounds and 7.5 assists in the last week. The Grizzlies have covered the spread in four of the last five times the Pelicans have visited town.

Who wins Pelicans vs. Grizzlies? And which side of the spread hits in well over half of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you should be all over Monday, all from the model that's up over $3,000 on NBA picks this season.

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