The Detroit Pistons will visit the Philadelphia 76ers in an Eastern Conference battle on Wednesday evening. Joel Embiid (shoulder) is upgraded to questionable after a five-game absence, though Ben Simmons (back) continues to miss time for Philadelphia. For Detroit, Derrick Rose (ankle) is out, with Bruce Brown (ankle) officially listed as questionable against Philadelphia.
Tip-off is at 7 p.m. ET at the Wells Fargo Center. Sportsbooks list the 76ers as 11.5-point home favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 216.5 in the latest Pistons vs. Sixers odds. Before you make any Sixers vs. Pistons picks or NBA predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has already returned almost $4,000 in profit on all top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season. It also entered Week 21 a blistering 51-32 on all top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Pistons vs. 76ers spread: 76ers -11.5
- Pistons vs. 76ers over-under: 216.5 points
- Pistons vs. 76ers money line: 76ers -862, Pistons +577
- DET: The Pistons are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games.
- PHI: The 76ers are 3-2 against the spread in their last five games.
Why the Pistons can cover
The model knows that the Pistons are struggling at the moment but, against a 76ers team that will be short-handed with or without Embiid, Detroit does have a few advantages. The Pistons rate as a top-10 offensive rebounding team in the NBA, grabbing 26.5 percent of their missed shots this season, and those second-chance opportunities will be critical against a stout 76ers defense.
On the defensive end, Detroit is excellent at keeping opponents off the free throw line, ranking ninth in the NBA in that statistic for the full season, and Philadelphia doesn't produce free throws at a tremendous rate. Finally, the emergence of Christian Wood could pay dividends, with the young big man averaging 21.9 points and 10.0 rebounds in the last 13 contests for the Pistons.
Why the 76ers can cover
Even so, Detroit isn't a lock to cover the Sixers vs. Pistons spread on Wednesday. The model also knows that the 76ers are the more talented team in this matchup, even if there are real injury concerns to deal with. Philadelphia is a talented and effective defensive team, ranking No. 6 in the NBA in allowing only 108 points per 100 possessions. The 76ers are also elite in the area of defensive rebounding, which could counteract a key strength of the Pistons on the offensive glass.
Offensively, Philadelphia should have the ability to produce second-chance advantages using a top-12 mark in offensive rebounding and Detroit's below-average metrics on the defensive glass. The 76ers are also above-average in both turnover avoidance and shooting efficiency this season, with Tobias Harris providing a solid No. 1 scoring option and Shake Milton performing quite well in the absence of Simmons.
How to make Pistons vs. Sixers picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, with both Brown and Embiid projected to fall short of their scoring averages. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60 percent of simulations.
So who wins Pistons vs. Sixers? And which side of the spread hits in well over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Sixers vs. Pistons spread you need to jump on Wednesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.