James Harden and the Houston Rockets will face a road test on Tuesday when they travel to face the struggling San Antonio Spurs. Eric Gordon (knee) remains sidelined for the Rockets, while there is uncertainty as to whether LaMarcus Aldridge (thigh) will suit up for the Spurs at home. Tip-off is at 8:30 p.m. ET at AT&T Center. Sportsbooks lists the Rockets as four-point road favorites, holding steady from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 226.5 in the latest Rockets vs. Spurs odds. Before you make any Rockets vs. Spurs picks or NBA predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It's already returned over $1,400 in profit on all its top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and enters Week 7 on a blistering 15-3 run on all top-rated NBA against the spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Rockets vs. Spurs. We can tell you that the model is leaning under, and has generated a strong against the spread pick that is hitting in over 50 percent of simulations. You can head to SportsLine to see it. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Rockets vs. Spurs.
- Rockets vs. Spurs spread: Rockets -4
- Rockets vs. Spurs over-under: 226.5 points
- Rockets vs. Spurs money line: Rockets -185, Spurs +155
- Rockets: James Harden scored 60 points in three quarters in last outing
- Spurs: DeMar DeRozan has scored 20 points or more in seven of eight games
The model knows that the Spurs are scuffling a bit, but San Antonio did provide optimism with a strong home victory over the L.A. Clippers last week. Gregg Popovich's team does have decisive strengths, headlined by a competent offense that is elite at taking care of the ball. Because the Spurs avoid turnovers, they generate a ton of shots, and against a middling defense like the Rockets, that can open a lot of doors. San Antonio is also fantastic at securing defensive rebounds, which should help take away any second-chance opportunities for the visiting Rockets.
Just because the Spurs have a few edges doesn't mean San Antonio will cover the Rockets vs. Spurs spread on Tuesday.
The model is also keenly aware that Houston's offense is fully capable of an explosion at any time. Harden scored 60 points through three quarters in the team's last game, and for the season, the former NBA MVP is averaging 38.9 points per game on high-end efficiency. When combined with Russell Westbrook, Houston's backcourt tandem is virtually impossible to contain, and the Spurs will have their hands full. In fact, the Rockets enter this game with one of the top three offenses in the NBA on a per-possession basis, while the Spurs have struggled with a bottom-five defensive rating.
One clear mismatch arrives when examining turnovers, where the Spurs are dead last in the NBA in creating them and the Rockets are above-average at protecting the ball. Houston's analytically-driven shot profile always helps to provide statistical advantages, but without the fear of turnovers, the Rockets should be able to spread the gap even further. Finally, Houston is the best team in the NBA at getting to the free throw line, and while the Spurs are quite good at avoiding fouls, the Rockets can generate easy points when all else fails.
So who wins Spurs vs. Rockets? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Spurs vs. Rockets spread you need to jump on Tuesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.