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USATSI

The Miami Heat and the Philadelphia 76ers square off in a battle between playoff-caliber teams on Tuesday evening. The Heat are just 4-4 this season after making a run to the 2020 NBA Finals. The Sixers are off to a strong start overall, though Philadelphia enters this contest on the second night of a back-to-back. Both teams are expected to be missing multiple key pieces, with Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic headlining a large group of Miami players ruled out. Philadelphia was missing Ben Simmons (knee) on Monday against the Hawks and he remains day-to-day. The Sixers only had nine available players against Atlanta with Shake Milton and Tobias Harris among the players out due to heath and safety protocols. 

Tip-off is at 7 p.m. ET in Philadelphia. William Hill Sportsbook lists Philadelphia as a seven-point home favorite, holding steady from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 209 in the latest Heat vs. Sixers odds. Before making any Sixers vs. Heat picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks last season. The model is up nearly $8,100 over the past two-plus seasons. Dating back to last season, it is also on a stunning 67-38 roll on top-rated picks against the spread, returning almost $2,500 on those selections alone. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on 76ers vs. Heat. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and betting trends for Heat vs. 76ers:

  • Heat vs. 76ers spread: 76ers -7
  • Heat vs. 76ers over-under: 209 points
  • Heat vs. 76ers money line: 76ers -270, Heat +230
  • MIA: The Heat are 3-5 against the spread this season
  • PHI: The 76ers are 5-3 against the spread in the last eight games

Why the Heat can cover

Miami's defense has been stout in the early portion of the 2020-21 season, allowing only 107.6 points per 100 possessions. That lands the Heat in the top 10 of the NBA in overall defensive efficiency, and they rank in the top eight in effective field goal shooting allowed at 51.6 percent. Miami protects the rim at an elite level, leading the NBA in allowing only 38.0 points in the paint per game. 

Offensively, Miami is known for its balance, and the team lands near the top of the league in effective field goal percentage (55.8 percent) and true shooting percentage (59.2 percent). The Heat share the ball well, ranking second in the NBA with a 68.4 percent assist rate, and Miami puts pressure on the rim consistently, creating free throw attempts at a top-10 level.

Why the Sixers can cover 

Philadelphia may be short-handed, but the Sixers can benefit from Miami's weaknesses. The Heat are dead-last in the NBA in turnover rate offensively, giving the ball away on 17.2 percent of possessions, and Miami is also the second-worst team in the league in offensive rebound rate (21.0 percent). The 76ers own a top-five defense, giving up only 105.5 points per 100 possessions, and that provides a strong baseline for Philadelphia.

In fact, Doc Rivers' team leads the NBA in shooting efficiency allowed, and they make life difficult for opponents to create good looks at the rim. The 76ers are also a top-10 team in assist rate (61.1 percent) offensively, and they are a top-10 team overall in rebound rate, helping to win the possession battle and use math to their advantage.

How to make Heat vs. Sixers picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total as the simulations are projecting 212 combined points. It also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. Sixers? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Heat vs. Sixers spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.