SportsLine projections: How the Chris Paul trade impacts the Rockets and Clippers
The addition of Paul makes the Rockets a bigger threat, but they're not even close to a favorite
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1 min read
The Rockets shook up the NBA landscape on Wednesday by agreeing to a trade that will bring Chris Paul over from the Los Angeles Clippers in exchange for Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams, Sam Dekker and a 2018 first-round draft pick.
This is a huge power move by the Rockets, who had been rumored to be planning big things for this offseason. Paul will be paired with MVP runner-up James Harden, creating one of the most productive backcourts in the NBA.
SportsLine Data Scientist Stephen Oh crunched the numbers on the addition of Paul and found that he increases the Rockets' chances of winning the NBA title significantly, though the chances are still pretty slim at 6.41 percent. According to the data, they're almost assured to make the playoffs next season (99.8 percent) and are now projected to move up from fifth in the Western Conference to second.
| Rockets | Wins | Playoffs | Conference seed | Championship |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Before trade | 45.9 | 77.80% | 5 | 0.87% |
With Chris Paul | 55.5 | 99.80% | 2 | 6.41% |
+/- difference | +9.6 | +22.10% | +3 | +5.54% |
Meanwhile, although the Clippers were able to get some good players back in return, the loss of Paul will obviously hurt them next season. Their win projection drops from 46 to 39.7, while their playoff chances dramatically drop from 79 to 28.3 percent. According to the data, the Clippers now have only a 0.01 percent chance of winning the NBA title.
| Clippers | Wins | Playoffs | Conference seed | Championship |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Before trade | 46 | 79.00% | 4 | 0.48% |
Without Chris Paul | 39.7 | 28.30% | 10 | 0.01% |
+/- difference | -6.3 | -50.70% | -6 | -0.47% |
Paul's trade clearly affects both teams, but it shows how great a team has to be to actually contend for an NBA title -- a backcourt of likely future Hall of Famers only gives you a 6 percent chance of winning the title.
We'll have to see if the Rockets can add another star like Paul George or Carmelo Anthony, which will almost certainly increase their championship odds even further.
