Spurs vs. Nuggets odds: NBA picks from expert who's 21-10 on Denver games

The surging Denver Nuggets try to remain hot Tuesday when they host the San Antonio Spurs (10:30 p.m. ET, TNT). The Nuggets are six-point sportsbook favorites, with the over-under for total points scored set at 207. Before you pick a side, check out what SportsLine expert Galin Dragiev has to say.

Dragiev is on a 21-10 run against the spread in games involving the Nuggets and he's also on a 25-13 run in NBA picks overall.

Part of his success: Dragiev learned early on to predict the outcome of the game before determining how success trickles down to individual players, so he spent more time studying team outcomes than projecting individual players. When it comes to predictions, he trusts numbers above all else.

Now, he has locked in a strong spread pick for Tuesday that you can only see at SportsLine.

Dragiev knows the Nuggets might be one of the NBA's most underappreciated stories this season. They have managed a winning record and contention for a playoff berth despite a roster bereft of superstars. They have also been without coveted free agent Paul Millsap most of the season because of injury.

Denver sits in the No. 7 position in the Western Conference playoff race and has won seven of its past 10 games. The Nuggets have covered the spread in six of those.

They are coming off a 123-113 road victory over Phoenix in which they broke open a tight game in the second half. All five starters scored in double figures, led by Wilson Chandler with 26 and Will Barton with 25.

On the flip side, the Spurs could be considered overachievers in their own right. They have managed to stay in the upper tier of the Western Conference despite a slew of injuries to their veteran-laden roster.

Star Kawhi Leonard has missed most of the season with a variety of ailments and scoring leader LaMarcus Aldridge is out until at least after the All-Star break with a knee injury.

Their short-handed roster led Utah most of the way Monday before the Jazz used a late jumper by Donovan Mitchell to hold on for a 101-99 win. Kyle Anderson led San Antonio with 16 points, while Pau Gasol had 15 points and 15 rebounds. 

Dragiev's analytics have unearthed a strong stat that determines which side of Spurs-Nuggets prevails. And SportsLine's advanced computer model agrees with him.

So which side of the spread can you bank on? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of Spurs-Nuggets you should be all over Tuesday from the expert who is 21-10 ATS on picks involving the Nuggets.

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