Spurs vs. Raptors odds, line: NBA picks, predictions from advanced model on 44-30 roll

LaMarcus Aldridge and the San Antonio Spurs look to get back on track heading into the second half of the NBA schedule starting on Friday as they travel to Toronto to take on former teammates Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green of the Raptors. The Spurs are tied with the Jazz for the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference, but are feeling the heat from the Kings, Lakers, and Timberwolves, all of whom are pushing for one of the final two spots in the West. They need a win on Friday after scuffling to close the first half of the season. Tipoff is set for 7 p.m. ET from Scotiabank Arena near the shores of Lake Ontario. Sportsbooks list the Raptors as 7.5-point home favorites, while the Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 227 in the latest Spurs vs. Raptors odds. Before you make any Spurs vs. Raptors picks, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks this season. It entered Week 19 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 217-164 record on all top-rated picks, returning more than $4,000 to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA picks against the spread, entering Week 19 on a blistering 44-30 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.

Now it has locked in on Raptors vs. Spurs. We can tell you it's leaning under, and it also has locked in a confident against-the-spread pick that hits in well over 60 percent of simulations. You can only see that selection at SportsLine.

The model knows the Spurs have struggled lately. In addition to posting a 1-4 record to close out the first half of the season, San Antonio has failed to cover the spread in eight straight games. All four of their losses came on the road, where the Spurs have really struggled this season. San Antonio has just an 11-19 record away from home this season, easily the worst among Western Conference playoff-hopeful teams.

The Raptors, on the other hand, boast the NBA's second best home record at 24-5 and the longest active winning streak at six games. There's a lot on the line too, as a win on Friday would put them just one game behind the Bucks for first place in the East. They have clearly been the better team than San Antonio this season, and with the recent acquisition of Marc Gasol, you could make a case that they are the most talented team that doesn't reside in the Bay Area.

But just because Toronto has been unstoppable this year doesn't necessarily mean it will cover the Spurs vs. Raptors spread.

The model is also well aware that while Toronto holds the NBA's longest winning streak, the Raptors have failed to cover the spread in three consecutive games. And for all their success at home, Toronto has covered the spread in only 44.8 percent of its home games and 39.1 percent of its games as a favorite.

The Spurs are 5-0 against-the-spread in their last five meetings with the Raptors, and now they're fully healthy. The Spurs are 16-12 against-the-spread as an underdog this season, and they've already proven that they can beat this same Toronto team.

So who wins Spurs vs. Raptors? And which side of the spread hits in well over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Spurs vs. Raptors spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.

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