Jimmy Butler Getty Robert Williams Celtics Heat
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Good afternoon gamblers, it's Chris Bengel arriving back in your inbox on this Tuesday.

Let's dive right in.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Celtics at Heat, 8:30 p.m. | TV: TNT

Latest Odds: Miami Heat -1
  • The Pick: Heat -1 (-110)
  • Key Trend: Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.

It's hard to imagine many analysts and fans alike predicting that the Heat would take the opening three games of this series, but here we are. With the Heat looking dominant at so many junctures of the series, I'm definitely siding with the favorite here.

The Heat have been underdogs in all three games of the Eastern Conference Finals up to this point. However, after their dismantling of the Celtics in Game 3, it's hard to argue that they shouldn't be favored in this spot at home. After all, this is a team that shot a mind-blowing 56.8% from the field and 54.3% (19-of-35) from beyond the arc in Game 3. 

It was a performance that showed just how deep this Miami roster is. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo combined to score just 29 points as they didn't have to produce at their usual clips. Meanwhile, Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin, and Duncan Robinson knocked down 15 combined threes to pace the perimeter attack. That allowed the Heat to maintain a double-digit lead throughout the majority of the game.

I do expect Game 4 to be a tad closer than the 128-102 drubbing that we saw on Sunday. However, given the way the series has gone, I'm very comfortable riding with the Heat in this spot. 

💰 More Picks

Jake Oettinger Getty Dallas Stars
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Golden Knights at Stars, 8 p.m. | TV: ESPN

Latest Odds: Dallas Stars -1.5

The Pick: Stars (-145) -- The Western Conference Final certainly hasn't gotten off to the type of start that the Stars would've wanted. The Golden Knights have jumped out to a 2-0 series lead, but I'm not expecting that trend to continue as the series shifts to Dallas.

The opening two games of the series have been back-and-forth affairs. The Stars even led Game 2 in the final three minutes before the Golden Knights tied it up and eventually came away with a 3-2 overtime win. With the Stars being the home team now, there's a lot to like about their chances.

The Stars have a 5-2 record when playing at home throughout the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs with the two losses coming in overtime. In addition, Dallas owns a +12 goal differential at home throughout the postseason. To make matters worse for the Golden Knights, the Stars have been victorious in four of the last five meetings between these two teams in Dallas. Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger has also thrived when playing at American Airlines Center as he has posted a 2.07 goals-against-average and a .929 save percentage in those seven postseason contests. 

Key Trend: The Golden Knights are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Dallas.

Celtics at Heat, 8:30 p.m. | TV: TNT

Caleb Martin Getty Miami Heat
Getty Images

The Pick: Caleb Martin Over 11.5 Points (-129) -- As I mentioned above, the Heat were extremely dominant from the perimeter throughout Game 3. With that in mind, I'm going back to the well for a player that has shot the ball very well throughout the series in Caleb Martin.

Martin has been more of Miami's better shooters throughout the postseason. The 27-year old is shooting 41.5% from three throughout the NBA postseason, including connecting on 47.6% of his three-point attempts in these three games against the Celtics. Martin has scored at least 15 points and nailed at least three long-range shots in each of those games. Considering that Martin drills a couple of threes per contest, this should be a very easy number for him to clear.

Key Trend: Martin has scored at least 15 points in each of his last three games.