Modernity is relative in the NBA. As The Athletic's Anthony Slater has pointed out, the Golden State Warriors averaged virtually the same amount of 3-point attempts in 2016 (31.6) and they did in 2020 (31.3), but because of the way the league changed around them, their league-wide ranking fell from No. 1 to No. 25 in that span. Somebody has to be first in every statistic and somebody has to be last. No matter how open-minded a team chooses to be, circumstances might hold it behind the rest of the NBA.
But accountability has to factor into the equation at some point. There is a line between being behind the times and ignoring them altogether, and the Orlando Magic haven't just crossed it, they're drawing a new line somewhere in the neighborhood of intentional defiance.
Mathematically speaking, there are two (non-free-throw) outcomes worth seeking on an average offensive possession: a layup or a 3-pointer. Offenses can be tilted toward one or the other without sacrificing efficiency, and not every shot has to fall into those categories. But one of those shots is worth an extra point, and the other is the easiest one on the court to actually make, so the goal of a given possession is usually to find one or the other. Unless, of course, you're the Orlando Magic, who, for reasons that remain unclear, are choosing to seek practically every kind of shot except for layups and 3s.
I present to you, a breakdown of where Orlando's shots are coming from via NBA.com tracking data.
Per game average | NBA rank | |
3-Point attempts | 26.8 | 30th |
Restricted area attempts | 16.8 | 30th |
Non-restricted area paint attempts | 26.8 | 1st |
Mid-range attempts | 21.4 | 1st |
No, you are not reading that wrong. The Orlando Magic are dead last in both 3-point attempts and shots in the restricted area while leading the NBA in mid-range jumpers, a category most smart teams have scrapped almost entirely outside of crunchtime situations. If you're wondering how this is possible, well, you probably have a good idea of how professional basketball works. Teams at the bottom of one of those lists are often there because they've placed a particular emphasis on remaining near the top of the other. The Dallas Mavericks, for instance, took the third-fewest shots in the restricted area last season, but still posted the most efficient offense in NBA history because they took the second-most 3-pointers. Conversely, the NBA champion Lakers were 23rd in 3-point attempts but managed to build a functional offense by taking the fourth-most shots in the restricted area. Ideally, a team would finish near the top of both lists. Realistically, offenses have to choose to focus on one or the other. The Magic? They're coming up with shots like this.
Aaron Gordon comes around the screen trying to use his downhill momentum. When he sees a wall of defenders in front of him, he pulls up and shoots one step inside of the arc. One step. He could've stepped back. He could've been more patient coming around the screen, giving himself the chance to pull up for 3 without developing that momentum. He could've passed the ball. He could have moved laterally when a direct route to the basket was unavailable. He could have done almost anything else. Instead, with 16 seconds left on the shot clock, he takes perhaps the worst shot in all of basketball. One step back and a make would've been worth an extra point. Of course, Gordon did not make this shot or come particularly close, which is largely what has created this predicament.
A good deal of Orlando possessions begin with the intent to attack the basket. The trouble is that too many of their shooters are as inconsistent as Gordon, so when a Magic player tries to get to the hoop, the paint is so crowded that he has no choice but to pass it back out. Eventually, a mid-range jumper is all that's available.
The actual solution to this would be better personnel, but until the Magic can find it, a commitment to taking a reasonable amount of 3-pointers even with the knowledge that they wouldn't make many of them would at least force defenders to take the threat seriously. Yet even when the Magic try to take 3-pointers, they instinctively find ways to avoid doing so. Two different Orlando players stepped on the line unnecessarily while trying to take 3's in the same game against the Wizards.
Context makes these numbers here even crazier. The Magic are the only team in the NBA to take more mid-range shots than restricted area shots, and are currently on pace to become the first team since tracking began in 1996 to take fewer than 17 shots per game in the restricted area. They are taking 19.2 fewer 3s per game than their new Florida neighbors, the Toronto Raptors. Only 21 years ago, no team in the NBA even attempted 19.2 3s per game. Oh, and while we're here, only 11.9 percent of Orlando's 3s are coming from the corner, the shortest point behind the arc. Unsurprisingly, that is the lowest percentage in the league.
I know what you're about to say. "But Sam, the Magic are 4-1! They have the NBA's No. 14 offense! Why is this so important?" Because those numbers are little more than small-sample nonsense. The Magic benefitted from completely unrealistic shooting luck in the first four games. Unsurprisingly, that luck regressed in their fifth.
- The Magic made 40.5 percent of their wide-open 3s in their first four games. And then they made only 25 percent in their blowout loss to the Philadelphia 76ers.
- Their opponents made only 31.7 percent of their 3-pointers through four games. Philadelphia made 45.5 percent of theirs.
- Their first four opponents made only 65.8 percent of their free-throws. The 76ers made 86.7 percent of theirs.
Their shooting luck will ultimately fall somewhere in between those two extremes, but their shot selection isn't subject to nearly as much small-sample randomness. There may be some regression with time, but ultimately, this playing style is a choice, and unless the Magic choose to take better shots, they're going to start encountering far more losses like the one they just suffered against Philadelphia.
Those same Warriors that didn't adjust to the 3-point revolution also happened to take plenty of inefficient mid-range shots. The 73-win 2015-16 version finished seventh in the league in such attempts, and the rest of the dynasty tended to hover around league-average. But those teams had Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant. They could afford to take whatever shots they wanted because they almost always went in. The Magic aren't so lucky. A team built around Gordon, Nikola Vucevic and Markelle Fultz probably needs to find advantages on the margins. Orlando is pretending those margins don't exist and trying to win at a game that hasn't existed in decades.
