This space is typically dedicated to game picks, but the real value to be found right now is in futures. Specifically, the Milwaukee Bucks. If ever there were a moment to go all-in on a team, it would be now. They are currently on a 15-game winning streak that nobody seems to have noticed, least of all Vegas.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is still listed at only +175 to win the MVP at DraftKings, and the Bucks are only +150 to win the Eastern Conference. Keep in mind, this is a team that, barring any major surprises, is going to be on an 18-game winning streak at the end of the week, as their next three games are against the New Orleans Pelicans, Cleveland Cavaliers and Memphis Grizzlies. Eventually, the narrative is going to catch up to performance. The Bucks are lightyears ahead of the field in terms of net rating, and have lost only three times all season despite several injuries to role players. Take advantage of this oversight while you can.
Anyways, back to the regular scheduled programming.
All odds via William Hill
Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets: Wizards -2.5
This line is about as clear an indication as exists of how little Vegas cares about record. The 9-16 Hornets are ahead of the 7-15 Wizards in the standings, but are still 2.5-point underdogs at home despite superior health. It just goes to show how much more Vegas cares about point-differential as a measure of a team's overall strength. The Wizards have a -4 net rating, whereas the Hornets are mired at -7.6. Throw in Washington's 7-4-1 road record against the spread, and the picture here seems relatively clear. The Wizards are a better team than their record indicates, and the Hornets are a worse team than their record indicates. Vegas wants to ensnare eager Hornets bettors in that trap, but the gap here is meaningful.
Denver Nuggets at Philadelphia 76ers: 76ers -4
No, Philadelphia's unblemished home record isn't quite as impressive when you factor in the line. The Sixers are a relatively pedestrian 7-5 against the spread at home despite a 12-0 record at the Wells Fargo Center, and their 9-10-1 against the spread record as a favorite isn't all that encouraging either. This is a bet against Denver more than one in favor of the 76ers. The Nuggets simply can't score against top defenses. They've played six games against current top-10 defenses, and have averaged under 98 points in those outings. Until Denver proves it can score against great defenses, picking the Nuggets on the road against the 76ers would just be irresponsible.
New York Knicks at Portland Trail Blazers: Knicks +8.5
Coaching changes can serve as a sort of soft-reset for bad teams in gambling terms. Rarely will they take a team from the lottery into the playoff hunt in one season, but it can at least give a team a jolt that boosts it's record against the spread. The Knicks seem to have gotten that jolt by firing David Fizdale. They played a vastly superior Indiana Pacers team down to the wire on Sunday, ultimately losing 104-103 while obviously covering the spread. The Knicks should probably be expected to lose this game, but Saturday was telling. There is competitive basketball in this roster, and it's worth taking the points to see if it is sustainable.
