Today's Top Picks: Nuggets close it down on the road as underdogs, plus two MLB plays I love

Thursday night brings us the 2019 NFL Draft, so that will dominate your sports tickers, Twitter and Facebook feeds (watch our live coverage of all the picks here on CBS Sports HQ). It won't, however, shut down the rest of the sports world. There is an NBA playoff game, two NHL playoff games and several Major League Baseball games that also demand the attention of the sports nuts of the world. As for gambling purposes, let's take a look at some good plays. 

1. Nuggets at Spurs: Nuggets +126

The Nuggets are getting three points, but I don't want 'em. I'll take them straight up on the money line. 

After struggling to gain a split in the first two games of the series, the Nuggets have their mojo back. Not only that, but they got a huge proverbial monkey off their backs in Game 4, winning in San Antonio to break a seven-year losing streak there. It was a comfortable 14-point win, too. That carried over into a dominant blowout win in Game 5. 

No doubt the Spurs are, as is generally the case, a tough out, but the Nuggets are the superior team and have righted the ship from a sluggish start early in the series.  The Nuggets are younger and deeper, and seven-game playoff series can be grueling. I like the fresher legs and slight edge in talent to win out over the experience here. The better team is going to close things down on the road in Game 6. 

The SportsLine Projection Model also has a strong play in this matchup on the total, with one side cashing in 60 percent of simulation. Get that pick as well as the computer's plays against the spread and on the moneyline over at SportsLine.

2. Marlins at Phillies: Under 7.5 runs

The Marlins are one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. They currently rank dead last in the NL in runs scored while sitting 13th in average, 13th in OBP and 15th in slugging percentage. 

Phillies ace Aaron Nola has actually been terrible (6.84 ERA, 6.07 FIP, 1.68 WHIP) to start the season, but there's no sign of injury or significant velocity drop or anything. Last time out, he allowed two home runs and nine hits, but it was in Coors Field. He struck out nine and walked one, so from that perspective it was an outing from which he can build. He'll do so against the hapless Marlins and keep them to a run or less over six or seven innings. 

On the other side of things, the underrated Caleb Smith toes the slab for the Marlins. Through four starts this season, he's pitched to a 2.35 ERA and 0.87 WHIP with 29 strikeouts against six walks in 23 innings. He had the makings of a breakout candidate before this season and he's allowing more groundballs, fewer walks and striking out more. He's already seen the Phillies once this season and went six scoreless innings. I expect they'll get a better look at him now seeing him for the second time in a few weeks, but he's still good enough to keep this thing a pitcher's duel.

The NFL Draft is finally here, and SportsLine's No. 1 NFL expert R.J. White has shared five draft props he loves for the first round Thursday. You can get those selections only at SportsLine.

3. Yankees at Angels: Yankees +111

The Yankees are injury-ravaged, haven't you heard? All you hear about regarding the Yankees is their injuries, to the point I think a lot of casual baseball fans would be shocked to learn they have won six in a row and eight of their last nine games. Taking the hill is Masahiro Tanaka, and he's in the midst of a very good season at a 2.76 ERA with a 3.35 FIP. It's a small sample, sure, but in three career starts, Tanaka has owned Angel Stadium (0.89 ERA in 20 1/3 innings with 26 strikeouts and four walks). 

The Angels send and easily hittable Trevor Cahill to the mound, and their bullpen is a complete mess right now. Even if Tanaka gets touched up more than ever before in that ballpark, the Yankees offense will generate plenty of boom to win this one. It's an especially tasty line with the Angels favored, too.

DFS pro Mike McClure has accumulated nearly $2 million in DFS winnings, and he's sharing his tournament picks for today, including a Red Sox stack involving Mookie Betts and Mitch Moreland. Get his full lineups over at SportsLine.

CBS Sports Writer

Matt Snyder has been a baseball writer with CBS Sports since 2011. A member of the BBWAA, he's now covered every World Series since 2010. The former Indiana University baseball player now lives on the... Full Bio

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