Today's Top Picks: Three NBA Finals best bets with Warriors facing elimination in Game 6 vs. Raptors
Also, watch SportsLine on CBS Sports HQ live at 6 p.m. ET for all today's best bets
Hopefully you didn't listen to me before when I told you to take the Warriors series price recently, because it wasn't the best value you could get on Golden State. Turns out, now is the best value! The Warriors are currently +280 to win the NBA Finals at Westgate SuperBook, a pretty ridiculous price for the would-be best team in basketball.
It's not that surprising considering the Raptors have looked quite good. Were it not for a controversial Nick Nurse timeout that cooled down the Raps while they were holding a six-point lead, maybe Toronto is already celebrating.
What's interesting about this series is that it's basically right where it should be in terms of a regular series. The Raptors had a chance to close out and we thought they would do it, but 3-2 is like everyone holding serve at this point. The only difference is two of the Raptors' wins came on the road and two of the Warriors' wins came on the road so it's throwing everyone off psychologically.
I can't recommend taking the Warriors to win the series right now, though, because you'd be better off just doing a progressive parlay with their two moneylines. You'd lose the bet either way, but you'd have to pay some extra juice if they lose in Game 6.
Let's look at three bets I do like for the Warriors in what could be the final NBA basketball game of the season. All odds via Westgate.
1. Raptors at Warriors: Under 212
We've got two teams who are rested and know it's an elimination game. They're going to be aggressive, but most of the scoring in this series has come early. I think we see sharper defense out of the gate, which leads to low scores early, which sets us up for a nice under number on the final tally. I wouldn't hate to wait on this and play it live either, as a hot start from these two teams would allow you to grab something as high as 220 in the game. There's a little bit of a hedge in play with one of the other choices I've got below, but I don't see why all of these things can't hit.
The SportsLine Projection Model has simulated Game 6 10,000 times, and its best play comes on the total, with one side cashing in 54 percent of simulations. Get all the computer's picks over at SportsLine.
2. Raptors at Warriors: Raptors +2.5
This is tough, man. Are the Warriors really going to get swept at home in the NBA Finals with the last game being an elimination game that ends their dynastic run? That seems impossible. But the Raptors have just been the better team all series and could/should have ended this thing already. I'm not sure I buy into the "win it for KD" angle, but certainly Steph and Klay Thompson could get nuclear and light everyone up.
The problem is Kahwi Leonard has had an answer every time the Warriors have made some kind of run, with the exception of the end of Game 5. I just think it's going to be a close game, and if it's a close game, I want the team catching the points. Obviously you'd prefer to have this earlier rather than later because it went from Raptors +4 to +2.5, but I still like the Raps catching points in a place they're familiar with.
SportsLine analyst Zack Cimini is red-hot picking the NBA, raking in $1,237 in profit for $100 bettors during his 30-16 streak. He's locked in his ATS pick for Game 6, and you'll want to see what he has to say at SportsLine before making your pick.
3. Raptors at Warriors: Steph Curry Over 33 points
This is a big number, but we know that Kevin Durant won't play and neither will Joe Looney. There's an argument that Curry is worse off without Durant out there because it will mean more defensive attention paid to the sharpshooter. I don't really care. Look at the numbers for Curry shooting wise the last three games: he's attempted 31, 22 and 23 shots and 14, 9 and 14 threes in the last trio of games. I'll bank on Curry making threes at home in an elimination game and getting to 33 points. His rebound number is worth a look too, with Steph having hauled in 8, 4 and 8 the last three games. You can find it either at 5.5 or 6.5, depending on where you look.
Former MLB executive John Bollman has hit on 20 of his last 30 MLB picks for SportsLine, and he's locked in three more best bets for Thursday. One team he's backing is the Dodgers, but head over to SportsLine to see the rest of his plays.
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