Before stepping foot on an NBA court, Victor Wembanyama is already being compared to Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Kevin Durant or, as LeBron James quipped, "an alien." One high-profile media member said that if Wembanyama's career turns out to be Durant or Hakeem Olajuwon, he has failed to meet expectations.
Not much pressure for a 19-year-old kid, right?
The fact is that Wembanyama is entering the league with Hall of Fame expectations, which means that if he's a multi-time All-Star who mixes in some All-NBA selections, he will be a failure in the minds of most fans and talent evaluators. It's endlessly unfair, but it's also what's led to him being the no-doubt No. 1 pick by the San Antonio Spurs in Thursday's draft.
At 7-foot-4, his skills and makeup are off the charts. He puts on dribbling exhibitions, swats shots into the stands and knocks down Dirk Nowitzki fadeaways (there's another comp for you). Then Wembanyama goes and does something that we've never seen before, only adding to his legend.
Putback dunk off his own stepback 3 🤯 https://t.co/ARkuLYGsAI pic.twitter.com/fXgjzrIAmO
— NBA (@NBA) April 2, 2023
But, as we know, sometimes -- more than we like to admit -- players fail to live up to expectations. And in Wembanyama's case, they're as lofty as any prospect since LeBron himself. Since we've all spoken so much about Wembanyama's strengths, we decided to take a look at a few areas that might end up holding him back.
Here are three reasons why Wembanyama might -- and we stress might -- fail to live up to the unfair, colossal expectations that have already been placed upon him.
1. Durability/Strength
The major selling point for Wembanyama is that we've never seen a player at his height move the way that he does. Well, that could also be a negative. Nobody ever wants to bring up injuries -- they're horrible and we all hope Wembanyama has a full, healthy career -- but the concerns are obvious with his 7-foot-4 frame running the floor like a gazelle and leaping like an impala.
When I asked talent evaluators to address potential issues about Wembanyama, durability was the first thing they mentioned.
"I think wear and tear could be a thing -- like, just his body," one source told CBS Sports. "He's 7-4, 240, and 240 on a 7-4 a guy looks like sticks and stones."
Wembanyama played in every game for Metropolitans 92 this season, but in the French domestic schedule teams typically play once per week, sometimes twice. In the NBA, that's going to be bumped up to three or four games per week, occasionally five games in seven nights. Load management is surely in Wembanyama's future, which could affect his overall impact.
There's also the issue of Wembanyama playing against bigger, stronger forwards and centers on a nightly basis in the NBA. He's already an elite shot-blocker, but how will he handle more physical players? For example, Wembanyama had a difficult time keeping 7-foot-3, 270-pound ASVEL center Youssoupha Fall out of the paint during their matchups. There aren't many traditional post-up centers left in the NBA, but the best way to eliminate a shot-blocker is to get into his body, which you can expect many bigs to do as Wembanyama begins his career.
"I just think it's gonna take him more time to adapt to the American game, to put on weight," another source told CBS Sports. "And then hopefully he doesn't get hurt."
2. 3-point shooting
Let's be clear -- Wembanyama can be an All-NBA player without ever making a single 3-pointer. But what takes him to the next level offensively is his ability to knock down 3s, both off the dribble and off the catch, at 7-foot-4. We've all seen the one-legged 3-pointers and step-backs with defenders draped all over him. When Wembanyama's season ended, however, he had made just 27.5% of his 3-pointers on five attempts per game. The season prior, he shot 26% in 16 Pro A games with ASVEL.
Scouts will tell you that the low percentages should be chalked up more to shot selection than any kind of mechanical failure. They'll point to his 83% clip from the free throw line as evidence that his 3s will eventually start to fall. It's very similar to LaMelo Ball, whose 25% mark from 3-point range in his 12 games with the Illawarra Hawks largely did not deter talent evaluators, and now he has developed into a 38% 3-point shooter on high volume in three NBA seasons.
But the fact remains, Wembanyama has not made his 3s consistently, and if he shoots 28% in the NBA, that's going to ultimately lower his astronomically high ceiling. Last season, Cade Cunningham was the only NBA player to shoot less than 29% from 3-point range on at least five attempts per contest, and he only played in 12 games.
Again, Wembanyama doesn't need to make 3s to have a successful NBA career, but it's a weapon that most people assume he'll have despite the numbers not necessarily backing that up.
3. The Scoot Henderson comparison
Deandre Ayton and Luka Doncic. Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid. Blake Griffin and Steph Curry. Andrew Bogut and Chris Paul.
There are multiple cases throughout NBA history of No. 1 picks, despite having solid-to-very good careers, being overshadowed by players selected behind them. With Henderson, a potentially franchise-altering guard, being selected at No. 2 or No. 3, there's a nonzero chance that Wembanyama could end up playing second fiddle.
Most expect Wembanyama to not only be the best player in his draft class, but also potentially one of the best players we've ever seen. Meanwhile, Scoot Henderson could lose his No. 2 spot to Brandon Miller, lowering the expectations even further for someone who could be relatively close to Wembanyama in terms of talent.
"I will say I would not be utterly surprised if Scoot Henderson has a better career than Victor Wembanyama," one source told CBS Sports, after vehemently declaring that he would undoubtedly still take Wembanyama with the No. 1 pick. "I would not be shocked -- I will go that far. This kid is special, man."
So, if Henderson becomes an All-NBA guard while Wembanyama "struggles" relative to expectations, he could be considered a disappointment through no fault of his own. But that's the downside of being such a tremendous prospect. Everything Wembanyama does will be under a microscope, and he'll constantly be compared not only to the players drafted after him, but also to the fictionalized version of him fans have conjured in their heads.
