The Golden State Warriors continue to battle nightmarish roster conditions and face off against the Dallas Mavericks on the road on Wednesday. Stephen Curry (hand), D'Angelo Russell (thumb), Klay Thompson (knee) and Kevon Looney (neuropathy) remain sidelined for Golden State, while only Seth Curry (illness) is questionable to play for the Mavericks. Beyond that, the Warriors enter the game on the second night of a back-to-back, while Dallas had Tuesday off after a win on Monday. Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET. Sportsbooks list the Mavs as 14-point home favorites, up a half-point from the opener, while the Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 217 in the latest Mavericks vs. Warriors odds after opening at 221.5. Before you make any Warriors vs. Mavericks picks and NBA predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
This model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and anyone who followed it last season saw massive returns, finishing 300-252 on all its top-rated NBA picks. On top-rated NBA picks against the spread and on the money line alone, the model returned a whopping $4,280 last season. It's off to a profitable start on all-top rated picks again this season, and enters Week 5 of the 2019-20 NBA season on a 9-4 run on all top-rated NBA spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns and consistently beaten NBA odds.
Now, the model has set its sights on Warriors vs. Mavericks. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under, and it's also generated a strong against the spread pick that is hitting in nearly 70 percent of simulations. You should head to SportsLine to see it. Now, here are several NBA betting lines for Warriors vs. Mavericks:
- Warriors vs. Mavericks spread: Mavericks -14
- Warriors vs. Mavericks over-under: 217 points
- Warriors vs. Mavericks money line: Warriors +750, Mavericks -1200
- GS: Alec Burks has scored 20-plus points in two of the last three games
- DAL: Luka Doncic leads NBA with five triple-doubles this season
The model knows that the Warriors are in a tough spot due to ravaging injuries but Golden State is coming off an impressive road win on Tuesday. The Warriors are above-average in avoiding turnovers, while the Mavericks are in the bottom five of the NBA in forcing them. That could allow Golden State to get more shots to the rim and keep this game within reach.
Just because the Warriors have a few edges doesn't mean Golden State will cover the Mavericks vs. Warriors spread on Wednesday.
Dallas enters this matchup with a decisive edge in overall talent, headlined by the presence of Luka Doncic. The second-year star is averaging 29.5 points, 10.7 rebounds and 9.3 assists this season and, when combined with 18.6 points and 8.9 rebounds per game from Kristaps Porzingis, the Mavericks have a strong 1-2 punch. In fact, Dallas boasts the NBA's No. 1 overall offense and, considering the widespread struggles of the Warriors on the defensive end, there could be fireworks. Dallas is also an elite offensive rebounding team, whereas the Warriors struggle to protect the glass.
So who wins Warriors vs. Mavs? And which side of the spread hits in almost 70 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Warriors vs. Mavericks spread you need to jump on Wednesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
