The Denver Nuggets welcome the Golden State Warriors for a highly-anticipated matchup on Thursday. Golden State has won four of the last six games, though the Warriors lost to the Indiana Pacers on Tuesday night. Denver is also 4-2 in its last six games but fell to the Brooklyn Nets in its last outing.
Tip-off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET in Denver. The latest Warriors vs. Nuggets odds from William Hill Sportsbook lists Denver as a five-point favorite, down half a point from the opening line. The over-under for total points is set at 225, down five from the opener. Before locking in any Nuggets vs. Warriors picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks last season. The model is up nearly $8,100 over the past two-plus seasons. Dating back to last season, it is also on a stunning 67-38 roll on top-rated picks against the spread, returning almost $2,500 on those selections alone. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Warriors vs. Nuggets spread: Nuggets -5
- Warriors vs. Nuggets over-under: 225 points
- Warriors vs. Nuggets money line: Nuggets -190, Warriors +170
- GSW: The Warriors are 5-3 against the spread in the last eight games
- DEN: The Nuggets are 3-7 against the spread in the last 10 games
Why the Warriors can cover
Golden State has been a different and better team when healthy this season and, after a slow start from a shooting perspective, the Warriors are improving. Steve Kerr's team maintains a top-five assist rate (63.3 percent) and a top-10 turnover rate (14.0 percent), which helps to boost efficiency. The Warriors are also very potent at both creating and converting free throws, ranking in the top eight in free throw creation rate and making 79.5 percent of their attempts.
The visitors should also benefit from Denver's struggling defense, as the Nuggets are allowing opponents to score more than 1.13 points per possession. Defensively, Golden State is a top-10 unit in turnover creation rate (15.7 percent) and effective field goal percentage allowed (52.4 percent), with strongly above-average metrics in blocked shots (6.3 per game) and points allowed in the paint (42.5 per game) so far this season.
Why the Nuggets can cover
Nikola Jokic is playing at an MVP level for the Nuggets, and he is the centerpiece of everything Denver does on the offensive end. The All-NBA center is averaging 24.3 points, 10.9 rebounds and 10.5 assists per game, and Jokic combines high-level shotmaking with elite passing vision and feel as a true seven-footer.
From there, the Nuggets can focus on exploiting Golden State's weaknesses. The Warriors are a bottom-10 team in the NBA in both offensive and defensive rating this season, and they struggle on the defensive glass, grabbing only 71.1 percent of available rebounds. Golden State also has a penchant for putting the opposing team on the free throw line, ranking in the bottom three of the league in free throw rate allowed.
How to make Warriors vs. Nuggets picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, with James Wiseman and Jokic projected to fall short of their season-long scoring averages. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can get that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Warriors vs. Nuggets? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Nuggets vs. Warriors spread you need to jump on Thursday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.