It's a marquee Monday matchup as the Spurs host the Warriors in a nationally televised contest at 9:30 p.m. ET. While the Warriors make one final push for the top seed in the West, the Spurs are desperately hanging on to one of the final two playoff berths.

San Antonio opened as a 6.5-point home favorite. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 206.

Before picking either side, you need to read what SportsLine hoops expert Larry Hartstein, who has nailed 10 of his past 16 Warriors picks and is on a sizzling 49-35 run picking all NBA games, has to say. 

On Friday, Hartstein made a confident pick in Kings-Warriors, astutely noting how injury-ravaged Golden State, a 9.5-point home favorite, would struggle to score against Sacramento. The result: The Warriors shot 42 percent from the field in a 98-93 loss, allowing Hartstein to cash in the exact type of game he called for.

Hartstein, who has a strong analytical background, has now examined every matchup, every player and every trend for Warriors-Spurs and locked in his pick. We can tell you he's expecting a low-scoring affair and is leaning toward the under, but what about the spread, which he has excelled picking?

Hartstein knows if the Warriors expect to win -- or at least cover the spread -- they're going to need big performances from non-starters. That includes point guard Quinn Cook, who has been on fire lately, shooting a blistering 70 percent from the field and averaging 26.5 points over his previous two games.

Kawhi Leonard (quad) remains out, but the Spurs can cover if they can keep up their recent defensive intensity. Over the past five games, San Antonio is allowing 90.6 points -- a solid nine points better than it had been yielding. LaMarcus Aldridge has stepped up his defense, blocking two shots in his previous game versus the Timberwolves. He could be key in slowing the Warriors' tempo. 

We can tell you Hartstein is leaning toward the under, but he knows there's a huge x-factor that determines which side of the spread prevails.

Can the depleted Warriors keep it within the spread, or do the Spurs solidify their postseason chances with a strong all-around performance? Visit SportsLine now to see the strong point-spread pick by Hartstein, who has absolutely crushed the NBA, and see what huge x-factor determines what happens.