The Clippers just can't have nice things. For the second year in a row they've been beset by major injuries which have shelved their ability to be in a peak situation for the crucial middle part of the NBA season when seedings are often determined. Blake Griffin has still not returned to action following December knee surgery, and now Chris Paul will miss 6-8 weeks with a torn ligament in his hand.
We looked at the impact the injury had for the Clippers after the news was announced on Tuesday, but we need to take a bigger look at the playoff picture to see what this ultimately means on a macro scale for the Clippers and the Western Conference.
The current situation
The Clippers stand at 29-14, fourth in the conference, having won seven of their past ten games. They sit seven games behind the Warriors for first and just 2.5 games behind Houston for third.
That last part is important for a few reasons. One, the Rockets have been a little wobbly lately and have a tough schedule through February which opens the door for the Clippers to catch them. Two, whoever lands the No. 3 seed stays out of Golden State's bracket until the conference finals, assuming the Warriors secure the No. 1 seed as expected.
The Clippers are also just two games ahead of Utah and four ahead of Memphis. They are 9-8 vs. teams .500 and over and 20-6 vs. teams under .500. The Clippers are currently 0-1 vs. Houston, 2-0 vs. San Antonio, 2-1 vs. Memphis, 2-2 vs. Oklahoma City, and 1-0 vs. Utah. Griffin has practiced and could return in the very near future which will help matters, as will an improved bench this season. But Paul remains vital to their success.
The schedule
Paul's return time is between 6-8 weeks. Let's put it a seven to split the difference and say he returns for the March 8 game against the Timberwolves. It's of course possible it takes him less or more time, this is just an estimate.
In that span, the Clippers play 20 games, even with the All-Star break cooked in between. Of those 20 games:
- Eight are vs. teams under .500, including the one-game under Hornets (twice) and Bulls.
- Twelve are vs. teams over .500, and 17 of those 20 games are against teams fighting for a playoff spot.
- Three (3!) games are against the Golden State Warriors, two are vs. the Celtics, one vs. Toronto, one vs. the Spurs, and one is vs. Houston.
- Thirteen are on the road, only seven are at home.
It is not an easy stretch.
Let's say they lose all three to the Warriors, lose both games to the Spurs and Rockets, split with the Celtics (since it's hard to beat a team twice in a short span of time), and win all but two of the eight sub-.500 team games. That puts them at 7-8 before games vs. Toronto, Atlanta (twice), Utah, and Milwaukee. It's not unreasonable to come out of that 9-11. That's totally fine.
Of course, there's a nightmare scenario where they just crater. If that happens, it's not inconceivable that they slip all the way to seventh. So this seems like a good time to talk about what Paul's injury means for the rest of the conference.
The playoff picture
The big, bold, flashing sign on this story is that the Clippers are unlikely to finish with a top-three record. San Antonio is winning at a .780 win percentage, and are the model of consistency, with no health issues. They are not slipping. The Warriors are the Warriors. If two All-NBA players get hurt for them, they still have two All-NBA players. They're not slipping.
Houston's wobbling a little bit; they lost to the Heat on Tuesday, have lost two of three, and face four straight playoff teams the next two weeks. But after that the schedule evens out and they've been remarkably consistent this season. Further, Houston's closing schedule is ridiculously easy; from March 30 on, they face two teams over .500 the rest of the way. So even if, by some miracle, the Clippers kept pace and the Rockets stumbled enough to put them in position, and neither Utah, the Thunder, or Grizzlies made a move, the Rockets probably hold them off with an easy closing schedule.
So now the question becomes a 4th, 5th, 6th, or 7th seed for L.A.
Before we look at that, however, it's important to recognize what this means. If we assume the Clippers hang in there enough for a 4th or 5th seed, it means a tough first-round series, having to face likely Utah or Memphis, possibly on the road, and then a second-round matchup with the Warriors. Those are tough, physical first-round series that will likely go six or seven games, and then you have to turn around and face a well-rested Warriors team.
Honestly this is a nightmare scenario, and if the Rockets make any sort of push for separation in February into early March, the Clippers need to target tanking down for a 6th or 7th seed. The Rockets and the Spurs are better teams, but they are also less physical and the Clippers know they can beat a healthy Spurs team. Houston's really good, but may not adjust to playoff basketball as well; Mike D'Antoni teams have had trouble in possession basketball.
For the Grizzlies, Thunder, and Jazz, it clearly presents an opportunity. They can make a push for home-court advantage in the first round, and a second-round appearance for any of those teams is essentially considered as a good season, even if it means the Warriors in the second round.
The good news here for the Clippers is that the 8th seed in the Western Conference is so amazingly terrible, that there's no conceivable way the Clippers can slip out. The Clippers' magic number, here on Jan. 18, is only 30. That seems high until you realize that there are 39 games left. A 16-23 closing record effectively clinches it, as the magic number is a combination of wins and losses by the team in ninth (in this scenario, the Kings, since they have the fewest losses).
But the Clippers' road to the kind of run they had hoped for when they got off to their league-best start in November is now in peril. Getting Griffin back will help, and the Clippers are deep enough and talented enough to survive this stretch. But looking at all factors, the most likely scenario appears to be a 4-5 matchup and a visit to Oracle in the second round.
The Clippers, for years, have been trying to get the stars to line up for them to make a run. Instead, they keep getting hit with bad news on top of bad news, and in a Western Conference that is bracketed the way it is, there's not much room for error. Unless they defy all expectations, a map is in place for another disappointing finish and big questions about the future of this team in the summer, when Chris Paul, J.J. Redick, and Blake Griffin are all free agents.
