Winners and losers of Myles Turner signing with Bucks: Damian Lillard, Pacers and any team who needs a center

Turner and the Bucks gave us the biggest surprise of free agency

Well... there's your free agency stunner. After months of speculation about one of the crazier offseasons ever coming in 2025, the summer's transaction cycle started relatively slowly. The Celtics shed some contracts and the inevitable Kevin Durant trade came and went, but there were no real surprises when the movement began on Monday. And then, Tuesday morning brought us one of the most unexpected sequence of moves in recent offseason memory.

The Milwaukee Bucks waived and stretched Damian Lillard in order to create the cap space necessary to sign Myles Turner to be their new starting center. The deal not only revitalizes an otherwise dreadful supporting cast around Giannis Antetokounmpo, but deprives the Eastern Conference champions of their starting center for the past decade. In a cruel bit of irony, the Pacers spent the better part of that decade warding off trade suitors for Turner only to lose him to nothing as a free agent to perhaps their fiercest rival.

This is a move that has significant ramifications for every party involved and perhaps beyond. So let's sift through Tuesday's big news and name some winners and losers from the Turner saga.

Bucks waive Damian Lillard, sign Myles Turner in biggest shocker of 2025 NBA free agency, per report

Robby Kalland

Winner: Damian Lillard

The past two years have been tough on Damian Lillard. Milwaukee wasn't his first choice, after all. Miami was. He thought he was joining a championship contender, but even when healthy, the Bucks never quite reached that level. He was away from his home in Portland playing on a declining team and then, after fighting his way back from a blood clot, he tore his Achilles in the first round of the postseason. It's hard to imagine the past two years going much worse for the star point guard, but the Turner deal grants him a bit of a reprieve.

Yes, he is obviously still injured and there's no telling what sort of player he'll be when he returns. But the Bucks still have to pay out the rest of his contract and now, unlike in 2023, he is fully free to dictate exactly where and when he plays next. Obviously, as a free agent, he can sign with any team he chooses, but without the burden of a big contract, he can take the minimum to find the perfect situation. What does he care if he's worth more? The Bucks are paying him anyway. If he wants to spend the next year out of the league and rehabbing on his own in Portland, he can do so.

The way things were trending before this, Lillard was going to spend a year rehabbing in Milwaukee only to rejoin an underwhelming Bucks team, essentially wasting his age-35 and age-36 seasons. His odds of ever winning that elusive first championship were relatively low in that scenario. Now, though, without having to think about money on his next deal, he can hand-pick the perfect situation on the perfect timeline. He comes out as an obvious winner in this situation.

Loser: Tyrese Haliburton

The Indiana Pacers, by all accounts, were prepared to pay the luxury tax for the first time in 20 years to keep the core of their Eastern Conference championship team together. And then, in Game 7 of the Finals, Tyrese Haliburton tore his Achilles tendon and everything changed. Suddenly, the thrifty, small-market Pacers couldn't bank on several rounds of playoff revenue. At the very least, the 2025-26 season was going to be a step back. So they decided to duck the tax.

That alone was a somewhat cowardly decision. Nobody was asking the Pacers to bolt past the second apron. They could've retained Turner at this price and just dipped their toes into the tax waters. They could have tried to move another contract to fit in Turner without going over the tax. There absolutely would have been interest in players like T.J. McConnell and Obi Toppin.

But instead, they chose to nickel-and-dime a lifelong Pacer with an offer that was, frankly, pitiful. Their offer never truly exceeded $60 million over three years, according to Jake Fischer. That's what Chicago paid a 32-year-old Nikola Vučević two summers ago. Turner is a better player. Milwaukee nearly doubled the guaranteed money Indiana offered, and other teams may have done the same had they known Turner was available. This wasn't just about ducking the tax. 

The Pacers fundamentally misevaluated the market for a core player who was essential to their Finals run. Turner is practically irreplaceable from a style perspective as so few centers can both shoot 3s and protect the rim, and the cherry on top is that they lost him to the Bucks of all teams. The Pacers hate the Bucks. They've battled in the past two postseasons and had plenty of memorable regular-season clashes in that time as well. Losing Turner in this manner is a slap in the face to Indiana's fan base. 

And they didn't even get anything back! Imagine if the Pacers had truly shopped Turner on the sign-and-trade market. We know there would have been a market for him since he's spent practically his entire career in rumors. Someone would have surrendered meaningful draft capital for him. Of course, that would have meant taking back matching salary, and apparently the Pacers are tightening their belts now.

Now imagine it from Haliburton's perspective. He just took this team closer to an NBA championship than anyone ever had. He suffered arguably the worst injury an NBA player can endure. And now he's learning not only that he will be without a key teammate when he comes back, but that the ownership of his team is not prepared to spend what it takes to keep a winner together. What a demoralizing few weeks for one of the NBA's brightest stars.

Winner: Milwaukee's short-term prospects

We already touched on how stylistically irreplaceable Turner was for Indiana. Brook Lopez was similarly critical in Milwaukee. The Pacers loved having a shooting, rim-protecting big man, but the Bucks absolutely need one. Building a team around Antetokounmpo requires optimal spacing, and that just isn't possible without this specific sort of center. Lopez filled that role capably for a long time, but he's now 37. The Bucks needed to get younger. They found one of the very few big men in all of basketball who plausibly fits next to their best player.

That best player reportedly had an active hand in recruiting Turner, which should put an end to the rumors suggesting he might force a trade at least for the time being. This move gives the Bucks a meaningful chance at playing competitive basketball in the weak Eastern Conference at least for the time being, and because they didn't have to sacrifice any assets to clear the cap space to sign Turner aside from the second-rounders they paid to dump Pat Connaughton, they could still plausibly improve further.

With Lillard gone, the Bucks badly need a guard who can score. Would the Celtics value shedding luxury tax dollars this season enough to swap Anfernee Simons -- making $27.7 million -- for Kyle Kuzma, at a lighter $23 million but with a second year left on the back end? Would Milwaukee be willing to attach its unprotected 2031 first-round pick to another contract or contracts (and with Turner in tow, Bobby Portia seems pretty expendable) to add another major piece? What else can Milwaukee do to bolster the roster around Antetokounmpo in a year in which the East is more winnable than it has ever been?

On Monday, the 2025-26 Bucks looked dead in the water. Today, they have a shred of hope. They still have a lot of work to do if they plan to compete meaningfully, but Turner is a perfect short-term fit.

Loser: Milwaukee's long-term prospects

Now, as beneficial as this move could be in the short-term, the long-term risk here is enormous. The Bucks took on five years of $22.6 million dead cap hits just to create the space to do so. If this doesn't work, that dead money is going to make it significantly harder for them to pivot.

Jon Horst has done a tremendous job of doing so in the past. Every time Antetokounmpo rumors arise, he figures out a way to take an unexpected swing to improve the roster. He did it for Jrue Holiday in 2020 and it worked. He did it for Lillard in 2023 and it didn't. But notably, in both of those offseasons, Antetokounmpo was extension-eligible. He re-signed following both moves. He can't now. He isn't eligible again until next offseason, which means he'll have time to see how this plays out before making up his mind. 

If it goes poorly, well, fire up the rumor mill again. That puts further pressure on the Bucks to continue to improve right now, which likely means further draft pick expenditures. Again, they have a tradable first-round pick in 2031 (or 2032). They could offer swap rights in another year. But, again, that puts the Bucks in an extremely precarious situation. Holding those picks as insurance against a future trade request makes that trade request likelier, because the Bucks as currently constructed are just not talented enough to contend. If they move those picks and it goes badly, though, that makes their post-Giannis future that much bleaker.

The reward here is significant, but the risk is far greater given how many holes still remain on this Bucks roster. Though we won't list them as an individual winner here, we should point out what a great position this puts the Portland Trail Blazers in. They control Milwaukee's first-round picks from 2028 through 2030. If Antetokounmpo had moved this summer, the Bucks might have been able to recover quickly enough not to send the Blazers good picks at the end of the decade. But if the Bucks have just delayed the inevitable, Portland is in better shape to get good picks in 2028, 2029 and 2030. And even if Antetokounmpo stays? Those picks come in his age-33, -34 and -35 seasons, so some decline given his dependence on athleticism should be expected.

Winner: Deandre Ayton

Ayton was roundly mocked for the max contract he just played out in Phoenix and Portland, but neither of those teams actually gave it to him. The Pacers did. They wanted him badly enough in restricted free agency back in 2022 that they were prepared to move Turner just to bring him in. Now, lo and behold, Ayton is a free agent again right as the Pacers need a starting center to replace Turner.

The assumption leading into Tuesday morning was that Ayton was earmarked for the Lakers. It made plenty of sense. He shares an agent, Bill Duffy, with Luka Dončić. The Lakers absolutely love taking big swings on former high draft picks who have lost their way. It worked on Rui Hachimura, not so much on Cam Reddish or Jaxson Hayes. The fit seemed ideal.

But keep two things in mind as Ayton waits to clear waivers on Wednesday. First, the Lakers are signing Jake LaRavia to a two-year, $12 million deal. That contract was too big to fit into their $5.1 million bi-annual exception, so it has to come out of their $14.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception. That means the Lakers can only go up to around $8 million to sign Ayton. The Pacers, on the other hand, have the full non-taxpayer mid-level exception at their disposal. Second, the Lakers seem intent on signing contracts for two years or less to preserve max cap space in 2027. The Pacers tend to prefer signing players to longer-term deals in order to maximize cost-control.

In other words, the Pacers are probably going to be able to make Ayton a much bigger financial offer than the Lakers can. Would the fit in Los Angeles be enough to sway him? It's hard to say. He reportedly wants to join a winner. The Pacers won't be one while Haliburton recovers, but should be when he eventually returns. The Lakers have a chance to be very good, but given the uncertainty surrounding LeBron James right now, it's not clear what sort of situation Ayton would be walking into. Either way, a powerful new suitor likely just joined his market. Even if that doesn't change his mind, it gives him more leverage to dictate terms to other teams, including the Lakers.

Loser: Other center-needy teams

Free agency is, to some extent, a game of musical chairs. There are usually more teams in need than available players. The center market has been very player-friendly this year. Luke Kornet, Brook Lopez and Kevon Looney all exceeded the taxpayer mid-level exception on their deals when all were seemingly targets at that price point. The options are dwindling, and another team, Indiana, just entered the picture.

Ayton and Al Horford are still out there. After that? There really isn't a starter on the table. That's going to be a major problem for someone, as the Lakers, Celtics, Warriors and Pacers all seemingly want at least one, if not both of those centers pretty badly. Sure, these teams could choose to chase their big man on the trade market, but as the Lakers have found, the price for a starter is going to be significant.

Right now, demand outpaces supply. There are more teams that want centers than centers who need to find new teams. Indiana joining the fray only made things harder for everybody. Were the Bucks in the mix for those players as well? Sure, but they had other needs they feasibly could have used their resources on and just re-signed another big man, Bobby Portis, so it was not certain that they'd aggressively court centers. Indiana has no other real needs, so this just made life harder for the rest of the field.