Take seven "GMs," put them all on the same mock draft show, assigned them teams randomly and then have them make picks and analyze the results and what would you get? We decided to find out.
That's exactly what we did on CBS Sports HQ -- our live, 24/7 streaming OTT sports channel available for free on your Apple, Amazon and all other devices.
The results were pretty stunning and I'll reveal the full 1-32 responses below. You can also fire up CBSSportsHQ.com or CBSSports.com/Live and check out the picks on demand via CBS Sports HQ. But the one thing that stood out more than anything else was Bill Reiter (serving as Bill Belichick) calling up Pete Prisco (serving as John Dorsey) and finding a way to package enough picks from the Patriots to the Browns that New England could net the No. 4 pick and draft Sam Darnold.
WAIT, WHAT?
Yes, it happened. Here's the deal:
Patriots get No. 4 overall pick
Browns get No. 23, No. 31 overall picks + Patriots 2019 first-round pick
The reaction from Prisco was literally to laugh and tell Reiter to "put on that hoodie and fire himself." I'm not so sure I agree. Let's look at the relative value based on the trade chart(s) for these picks.
For purposes of being flexible, let's look at it from the perspective of Jimmy Johnson's traditional chart, the trade chart created by Chase Stuart that is more modern and the updated chart based on post-CBA trades created by Rich Hill of Pats Pulpit.
I'm going to assign the Patriots the 28th pick next year, which is probably conservative based on the last decade.
Trade Chart | Browns Points | Patriots Points | Winner |
Jimmy Johnson / Traditional | 2040 | 1800 | Browns (+240) |
Chase Stuart / Football Perspective | 25.8 | 40.7 | Browns (+14.9) |
Pats Pulpit | 644.18 | 490.52 | Browns (+153.66) |
So the Browns definitely win in all these instances, at least in terms of pure value. In the traditional chart, they pick up the equivalent of the 70th overall pick in value for free by getting these three picks for No. 4 overall. According to the modern charts, the value they pick up is WAY more substantial: according to the Stuart trade chart, they get the value of an extra 22nd overall pick in the deal. Per the PP chart, they get the 39th overall pick for free in the deal, essentially.
Put another way: according to the Stuart chart, the 22nd pick and the 31st pick by themselves is technically an overpay.
Whatever knife you want to use when slicing, Prisco ripped off Reiter in terms of the price to move up from deep in the draft to the fourth overall pick. And yet, it's hard to really hate what the Patriots did, because it feels a lot like 2011, when the Browns moved way down in the draft in a deal with the Falcons so Atlanta could get Julio Jones.
At the end of the day, the team moving up paid a huge price, but if the Browns don't hit home runs on their later picks and the guy who was drafted with the high pick turns into a superstar, it's going to be a hard sell for the team who moved down. (See: Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson.)
With that in mind, let's look at what the Browns pulled in from their first-round haul:
1. Josh Allen, QB Wyoming (previously owned pick)
23. Kolton Miller, OL, UCLA (via Pats)
31. Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville (via Pats)
We don't know if Sam Darnold is going to be good or if he's going to be great or if he's a baby-faced bust with tiny hands. I do know that as much as I like Miller and Alexander, if Darnold is a top-10 starting quarterback at any point in the next five years, this trade would look like a massive ripoff. Quarterbacks change the economics of drafts. They certainly changed the economics in this one.
We also break down the mock on the Pick Six Podcast, so subscribe to that here and get a daily dose of NFL content every morning.
Let's get to the picks, with one caveat: because we were moving quickly and did not prepare these picks ahead of time (Reiter/Prisco were an exception and didn't tell anyone!), there weren't many on-the-clock trades. That's how the Dolphins land Josh Rosen.
1. Cleveland Browns
Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming: Prisco loves Allen and he didn't flinch here.
2. New York Giants
Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State: Reiter didn't flinch either and actively refused to trade out of No. 2 (I tried before the draft).
3. New York Jets (via Colts)
Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma: Jamey Eisenberg did what many people believe the Jets will do and took Mayfield at No. 3.
4. New England Patriots (mock trade with Browns)
Sam Darnold, QB, USC: This would be quite the transition from Tom Brady.
5. Denver Broncos
Bradley Chubb, EDGE, NC State: Great value here for the Broncos who now have an improved pass rush. Easy pick for Chris Trapasso.
6. Indianapolis Colts (via Jets)
Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech: JLC hears if "Chubb is off the board" then it comes down to Roquan Smith and Edmunds. He's only 19!
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quenton Nelson, OL, Notre Dame: Dave Richard wanted to trade out of this spot, but wouldn't have if Nelson was on the board. A steal here.
8. Chicago Bears
Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia: I picked for the Bears and would have jumped the Bucs for Quenton Nelson or moved back with the Dolphins for Rosen had that been an option on the clock. But Smith is a really nice consolation prize.
9. San Francisco 49ers
Marcus Davenport, DE, USTA: I snaked Reiter! He wishes the Bears would have traded down. The 49ers go with a pass rusher instead.
10. Oakland Raiders
Derwin James, DB, Florida State: "I feel like this is kind of a steal," Jamey Eisenberg said. He's not wrong.
11. Miami Dolphins
Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA: Steal of the draft here for the Dolphins who are reportedly "obsessed" with Rosen. I made this pick and it was easy.
12. Buffalo Bills (via Bengals)
Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State: This might cause Bills fans to melt down, but this is the top QB on Chris Trapasso's big board. Credit him for sticking with his guns and taking a guy at 12, even if he might be there at 22.
13. Washington Redskins
Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama: Oh wait, maybe THIS is the steal of the draft. Jason La Canfora wanted to go with a defensive tackle but landing Minkah here is a really nice haul. Back-to-back years an Alabama guy falls in the Redskins lap.
14. Green Bay Packers
Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State: Easy pick for Dave Richard here. Great value.
15. Arizona Cardinals
Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa: Prisco wanted Ward but he's going CB either way.
16. Baltimore Ravens
Mike McGlinchey, OL, Notre Dame: Decidedly "not sexy" pick by Bill Reiter, according to Chris Hassel.
17. Los Angeles Chargers
Vita Vea, DL, Washington: "A steal falling to this spot" according to Jamey Eisenberg.
18. Seattle Seahawks
Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State: La Canfora's dog started barking mid pick and I was hoping McGlinchey would be there but I'll take best player available. Prisco panned the pick, but K.J. Wright has one year left on his deal and Bobby Wagner only has two.
19. Dallas Cowboys
D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland: A pick that will make Cowboys fans very happy.
20. Detroit Lions
Will Hernandez, OL, UTEP: JLC reports that "a lot of the evaluators think Hernandez may be the third-best offensive line prospect in the draft."
21. Cincinnati Bengals (via Buffalo Bills)
James Daniels, C, Iowa: Dave Richard helping the Bengals continue to rebuild their offensive line.
22. Buffalo Bills from Chiefs
Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU: Chris Trapasso pairing up Sutton with Rudolph at least makes Buffalo interesting next year.
23. Cleveland Browns (mock trade with Patriots)
Kolton Miller, OL, UCLA: Prisco fills the Joe Thomas void with what he calls "best left tackle in this class."
24. Carolina Panthers
Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama: A lot of Panthers fans would be fine with this pick by Jamey Eisenberg.
25. Tennessee Titans
Harold Landry, EDGE, Boston College: The Titans are building a nice little defense and I got to add some more pass rush help.
26. Atlanta Falcons
Taven Bryan, DL, Florida: Prisco calls this guy "Baby J.J. Watt" so that could play out well for the Falcons.
27. New Orleans Saints
Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville: La Canfora points out he doesn't think this would happen. "In real life they're going tight end here" because Jackson will be off the board. "He may be the best quarterback in this draft, if you cater things correctly to him."
28. Pittsburgh Steelers
Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama: Just like most mocks, this is a fit that happens a lot. Layup for Dave Richard.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars
Frank Ragnow, C, Arkansas: Noted running game fan Pete Prisco loaded up more on the Jags offensive line.
30. Minnesota Vikings
Isaiah Wynn, OL, Georgia: More help for Kirk Cousins, courtesy of Jamey Eisenberg.
31. Cleveland Browns (VIA MOCK TRADE with Patriots)
Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville: Something, something, something. Prisco bragging about his first-round haul.
32. Buffalo Bills (mock trade with Eagles)
Maurice Hurst, DL, Michigan: The only on-the-clock trade! Trapasso offered me No. 53 and No. 65 for No. 32. That's a nice net win for the Eagles to move out of the slot so I dropped back. Trapasso was willing to move up after landing his QB at No. 12 in order to get the "best one-gap penetrator" and a replacement for Kyle Williams.
