Most professional sports seasons have come to a halt, and the only form of distraction has been the start of the new NFL league year. The 2020 NFL Draft could receive inordinate viewership if things do not begin to normalize over the coming month.
The oddsmakers at William Hill released their initial prop bets for the event, which is scheduled to commence April 23.
Tua Tagovailoa: Over/under 4.5
The under will almost certainly hit if the Dolphins decide that he is the best option for them because it likely institutes a bidding war between the Chargers and Dolphins. In all likelihood, one of those two teams would move up to No. 3 overall with Detroit for the right to select Tagovailoa. The largest unknown in this entire conversation are the medical exams. If Tagovailoa is not progressing as desired, then the urgency to move up subsides.
Pick: Under 4.5
Justin Herbert: Over/under 6
The sense is that Los Angeles likes Tagovailoa more than Herbert so they would almost certainly leapfrog the Dolphins to secure the chance to add their quarterback of choice. In that scenario, the Dolphins would select Herbert at No. 5 overall, which cashes the under.
Pick: Under 6
Jordan Love: Over/under 12.5
It gets a bit dicey in regards to Love. The Panthers are no longer expected to be in the quarterback pool after signing Teddy Bridgewater. After the Bengals, Dolphins and Chargers, who would be in the mix for a quarterback? Las Vegas at No. 12 overall is a possibility. Odds support the over unless a team trades up, similar to the 2017 NFL Draft when the Texans and Chiefs moved up to take Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes, respectively. There is one other potential hurdle to clear: what if Washington takes Tagovailoa at No. 2 overall? Then, the top 10 would assuredly include four quarterbacks.
Pick: Over 12.5
More prospect draft slots
Jeff Okudah: Over/under 3.5
Mekhi Becton: Over/under 4.5
Isaiah Simmons: Over/under 6.5
Derrick Brown: Over/under 7
Tristan Wirfs: Over/under 8.5
Jedrick Wills: Over/under 9.5
Andrew Thomas: Over/under 11.5
CeeDee Lamb: Over/under 12.5
Jerry Jeudy: Over/under 12.5
Javon Kinlaw: Over/under 13.5
Henry Ruggs: Over/under 15
K'Lavon Chaisson: Over/under 16
Xavier McKinney: Over/under 17.5
C.J. Henderson: Over/under 17.5
Justin Jefferson: Over/under 21.5
Patrick Queen: Over/under 23.5
A.J. Epenesa: Over/under 24.5
Kristian Fulton: Over/under 24.5
Yetur Gross-Matos: Over/under 24.5
Tee Higgins: Over/under 25.5
Zack Baun: Over/under 25.5
Kenneth Murray: Over/under 25.5
D'Andre Swift: Over/under 26.5
Ross Blacklock: Over/under 31.5
Grant Delpit: Over/under 31.5
Josh Jones: Over/under 32.5
Jonathan Taylor: Over/under 32.5
Over is the pick for Okudah, Becton, Kinlaw, Chaisson and Ruggs. For Okudah, it's essentially Lions or bust with those odds. It is more likely that Detroit trades out of that pick or selects another position. Similarly with Becton, it is Giants or bust. General manager Dave Gettleman is just as or more likely to take Wirfs, Simmons or Okudah at No. 4 overall. In regards to Kinlaw, the needs of teams pre-No. 13 overall do not really line up. Ruggs at No. 15 overall is a good spot for bettors. Denver at No. 15 overall continues to be the most likely destination, in my opinion. There is a good opportunity to wash or cash.
Under is the pick for Epenesa, Jones and Murray. When the 20s arrive, there is a smaller margin for error. Teams are no longer dealing in players with first round grades but rather second round grades, which is a larger pool of talent. Epenesa did not have the most awe-inspiring NFL combine experience but the film speaks for itself. He should not be on the board at No. 25 overall. Once the run on offensive tackles takes place in the top 10 and early teens, then attention will turn to the second group of tackles. Jones figures prominently in that bunch. Finally, Murray is too good of a player to be on the board at No. 26 overall. He should go higher.
Other draft props
Most picks in Round 1: Offensive or defensive players
Most picks in Round 1: SEC or all other conferences
Most picks in Round 1: Wide receivers (-1/2) or offensive linemen
In my most recent mock draft, there were 17 defensive players and 15 offensive players selected. The lean would be towards defense by a slim margin based on the other number of potential first round picks.
In the same mock draft, there were exactly 16 SEC players and 16 players from other conferences selected. With that being said, the lean is towards all other conferences because the list of other potential first round selections is littered with prospects outside of the great SEC.