Every first round has a fulcrum spot: The pick in the draft that either ends up going in a totally unexpected direction or is the spot where a trade is most likely to occur. I can't help but believe that fulcrum is Detroit and the No. 3 pick. I'm sure Washington will get plenty of calls about No. 2, and if the offer is good enough, maybe it'll be willing to pass up on Chase Young (though I'm not sure it should). Because of this, I believe the Lions are the most likely to determine how the first round goes.
In my first mock, I had the Raiders trading up to No. 3 to grab Tua Tagovailoa. Now, in my second version, I once again have the Lions trading down with somebody desperate to land a quarterback. This time, however, it's the Chargers, and that trade sets a few dominoes in motion.
Should we believe the Dolphins actually prefer Justin Herbert over Tua Tagovailoa? There are a lot of draft questions out there, and Will Brinson is joined by the Pick Sox Podcast Superfriends to break them all down. Listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness.
NFL Mock Draft
Round 1
Round 1 - Pick 1
I toyed with the idea of doing a mock where the Bengals took anybody but Joe Burrow here, but I don't need the entirety of southwest Ohio hunting me down.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
Again, the Redskins will receive calls about this pick, but I would have to be offered a lot to pass up on the chance to take Young. Think of how good some of the edge rushers taken atop the last few drafts have been. Young could be better than them all.
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Mock Trade from
Detroit Lions
Round 1 - Pick 3
The Chargers not only take their replacement for Philip Rivers, but they get a name that might make people in Los Angeles care about the Chargers. L.A. sends Detroit the No. 6, No. 71 and a 2021 2nd round pick to move up three spots to take Tua before the Dolphins can.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
The Giants could go with an offensive tackle here, but there are a lot of offensive tackles available in this draft class. There's only one Isaiah Simmons.
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Round 1 - Pick 5
Left at the Tua altar after not willing to surpass the Chargers' offer, Miami settles for a left tackle with the ability to protect their QB for the next decade. Whomever that QB might wind up being.
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Mock Trade from
Los Angeles Chargers
Round 1 - Pick 6
The Lions trade down three spots and end up with the corner everybody is mocking to them at No. 3 while adding more picks to their arsenal. Pretty good move for Detroit!
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Round 1 - Pick 7
This pick remains the same. Carolina seems to be entering a rebuild, and while it's possible they put together a package to move up and take a QB, or just choose one here, I think Matt Rhule would rather get a lay of the land before banking his future on a QB. Brown makes the Panthers' defense better from the jump.
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Round 1 - Pick 8
I get the sense from people I talk to that Becton is going to be a name climbing up a lot of boards in the coming weeks, and I understand why. He's big and mean, but also a graceful athlete that can handle the left tackle position in the NFL.
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Round 1 - Pick 9
Jacksonville has more significant needs than the interior of their DL, but Kinlaw will be hard for them to pass up here.
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Round 1 - Pick 10
If the Browns do anything but address the offensive line in this spot, the new front office should be fired before minicamp even begins.
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Round 1 - Pick 11
I had Epenesa here in my first mock as well. He's not a finished product, but my god, the ceiling here is sky-high. At No. 11, for a team that needs help on the edge, this is a no-brainer.
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Mock Trade from
Las Vegas Raiders
Round 1 - Pick 12
Jacob Eason strikes me as a prototypical Bruce Arians QB. With the Colts possibly in the market for a QB, Tampa doesn't take any chances, sending No. 14 and No. 76 to Las Vegas to move up and get their guy.
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Round 1 - Pick 13
Maybe the Colts preferred Eason; perhaps they like somebody else. Either way, I have them taking Herbert here. It doesn't stop them from signing somebody like Philip Rivers. There are other directions Indy could go here, however.
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Mock Trade from
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Round 1 - Pick 14
We don't know who Las Vegas' QB will be next season, but we know he could use a few more weapons. Now they get a fun one.
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Round 1 - Pick 15
All these trades up for a QB push Wirfs down the board, which is good news for a Denver team that desperately needs help at tackle. Garett Bolles is probably getting called for holding as you read this.
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Round 1 - Pick 16
Without a no-doubt edge rush prospect still here, the Falcons instead address another major need by taking the top corner left on the board. I'm sure some teams will have Fulton ahead of Okudah.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
I believe Delpit is the best safety in this draft, and with his teammate Fulton going off the board a pick ahead of him, the Cowboys take the best defensive back available.
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From
Pittsburgh Steelers
Round 1 - Pick 18
LSU run! That's three Tigers in a row, as the Dolphins take an enticing prospect in Chaisson. He reminds me of a bargain-priced Isaiah Simmons, and this is great value for Miami at No. 18.
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From
Chicago Bears
Round 1 - Pick 19
The Raiders could go a number of different directions here, as they have plenty of needs. Based on what's available, I think Henderson is the most logical choice.
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From
Los Angeles Rams
Round 1 - Pick 20
Four LSU players in five picks, as Queen becomes the fifth Tiger to geaux in the 1st round. No wonder they won the national title. He's a bit undersized, but that's never stopped Jacksonville before.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
I had the Eagles taking Henry Ruggs in my first mock, and as I wrote then, there's no guarantee which WR it will be, but I'm very confident it'll be a WR.
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Round 1 - Pick 22
I'm a big fan of Gross-Matos and had him going in the top 10 in my original mock. That might have been a bit optimistic. Still, he strikes me as a player who will impress during the combine and workouts, and he strikes me as a player Buffalo will like a lot.
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Mock Trade from
New England Patriots
Round 1 - Pick 23
The Dolphins move up three spots to get the best quarterback left on the board in Love. They send No. 26, No. 142 and No. 153 to the Pats. This gives Miami a chance to develop Love, but at a low enough cost that it won't prohibit them for going after another QB in the 2021 Draft if they're still in need. They move up out of fear that New Orleans could take Love first.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
It would be nice to have a weapon alongside Michael Thomas worthy of drawing defensive attention, and Shenault is capable of being that guy. Plus, he's so versatile, and when you consider what Sean Payton has done with players less skilled than Shenault, this could be a lot of fun for all involved.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
Opinions vary on Diggs. Some I've talked to like him a lot, while others wouldn't take him until the third round at the earliest. I lean more toward there's a lot to like here, and Minnesota needs a corner. He also has the kind of size that Minnesota has a tendency to value.
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Mock Trade from
Miami Dolphins
Round 1 - Pick 26
The Pats could do anything with this pick, and I'd bet the most likely outcome is another trade down. If they do keep the pick, they could do a lot worse than Kmet. He's not Gronk, but he'd help replace a lot of what the New England offense was missing without him.
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Round 1 - Pick 27
Seattle needs pass rush help whether it keeps Jadeveon Clowney or not. Lewis is not a finished product, but the tools of a good NFL pass rusher are all there.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
Consistency is an issue with Murray, but there's no denying the talent he has. The Ravens need help at LB, and he's the best still on the board.
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Round 1 - Pick 29
The Titans might choose to address needs on the OL here, but I just like the idea of Gallimore on their defensive line. He's a disruptive force that helps out everybody else in the front seven.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
Aaron Rodgers has never been a check down kind of guy, but as he gets older and his arm diminishes, he could use a weapon like Hamler in the slot. He's fast enough to get deep as well, but it's his ability with the ball in his hands in space that will make him attractive to the Packers here.
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Round 1 - Pick 31
Great value for the 49ers here, who address a need at safety with a player some consider the best in the draft at the position.
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Round 1 - Pick 32
Gladney is likely to be a player that teams have different views on. Maybe the Chiefs take him or another corner, but I think that corner will be an area they want to address with this pick, based on what's available.
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