The Jaguars have locked up the No. 1 pick, which means the draft starts with the No. 2 selection because there's no way 'Trevor Lawrence' aren't the first two words uttered by Roger Goodell once the 2021 NFL Draft gets underway this spring.
So what will the Jets do? Will they target a QB? They could, but if they're sold on Sam Darnold for another year, they'd be wise to protect him. Meanwhile, Justin Fields, who had a couple of clunkers against Indiana and Northwestern, falls to No. 10 in our latest mock draft, the third QB taken after Lawrence and Zach Wilson. The 49ers and Patriots also target a QB while the Steelers set their sights on a running back, one who can hopefully get that rushing attack back on track in Pittsburgh.
Keep reading to see how the rest of the first round unfolds. And remember, the draft order is based on team record, strength of schedule and the subsequent tiebreakers.
Round 1 - Pick 1
Clemson • Jr • 6'6" / 220 lbs
The Jags have wrapped up the No. 1 overall selection, which means that Trevor Lawrence is headed to Jacksonville. There is no alternate plan because this is it. Lawrence has a chance to be special and no trade offers will be enticing enough to prompt the Jags to move off this pick.
Round 1 - Pick 2
Penei Sewell OL
Oregon • Jr • 6'6" / 330 lbs
Same as last week, in part because Sam Darnold continues to show glimpses of why he was once a first-rounder and also because questions loom about Justin Fields' readiness at the next level. There are far fewer questions about Sewell, who is the second-best prospect in this class.
From Houston Texans
Round 1 - Pick 3
Penn State • Jr • 6'3" / 244 lbs
Talking to folks around the league, there is little concern that Parsons opted out for the 2020 season because he is such a special talent. That said, No. 3 is a little high to hear his name called. It's why the Dolphins could end up trading down several spots, especially with a team desperate to land a QB, and still land Parsons. Kamu Grugier-Hill and Elandon Roberts will be free agents next spring and Parsons has the type of freakish athleticism that we've come to expect in NFL linebackers -- Kenneth Murray, Patrick Queen, Devin White and Devin Bush just to name first-rounders from the last two drafts -- and he'll impact the Dolphins 'D' from Day 1.
Round 1 - Pick 4
Zach Wilson QB
BYU • Jr • 6'3" / 210 lbs
Matt Ryan, who will be 36 next season, has a $49.9 million dead-cap hit in 2021. So the new GM and head coach in Atlanta can bring in Wilson as their future franchise passer with the understanding that he doesn't need to be rushed onto the field.
Round 1 - Pick 5
Northwestern • Jr • 6'3" / 305 lbs
The Bengals just win, baby! They've now reeled off two in a row and in the process find themselves with the No. 5 pick, which means they're almost certainly out of the Sewell sweepstakes. Slater isn't a bad consolation prize, however, in part because he was so solid at tackle in 2019 (he opted out in 2020), and he has the versatility to play guard and even center.
Round 1 - Pick 6
Alabama • Jr • 6'1" / 175 lbs
That's right, Smith is the first wideout off the board. He isn't our WR1 (yet) but he could end up winning the Heisman. More importantly for the Eagles, he plays much (much much) bigger than his listed 175 pounds (and he's probably not even that heavy) and because he's so polished as a player, he's a Day 1 contributor in the NFL.
Round 1 - Pick 7
LSU • Jr • 6'0" / 208 lbs
Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola are all in the final year of their deals. And while the Lions will almost certainly keep Golladay, who has been injured for much of this season, adding Chase makes too much sense not to happen.
Round 1 - Pick 8
Kwity Paye DL
Michigan • Sr • 6'4" / 272 lbs
The Giants defense showed signs of life earlier this month but the unit (and the entire team, in fact) has come crashing back to earth the last two weeks. Finding a pass rush is at the top of the offseason to-do list and Paye, who is an athletic marvel, fits exactly what the team needs along the D-line.
Round 1 - Pick 9
Kyle Pitts TE
Florida • Jr • 6'6" / 240 lbs
The Panthers could go a number of ways here, including targeting a QB or CB, but Kyle Pitts is not only the best tight end in this class, he might end up being the best receiver (think Darren Waller).
Round 1 - Pick 10
Ohio State • Jr • 6'3" / 228 lbs
Fields falls to 10, in part because Zach Wilson had a stellar 2020 campaign but also because Fields' performance against Indiana and Northwestern raised eyebrows. He's undeniably talented but there are concerns about aspects of his game that could see him be something other than one of the first two QBs drafted.
Round 1 - Pick 11
Round 1 - Pick 12
Jaycee Horn CB
South Carolina • Jr • 6'1" / 205 lbs
Horn, who opted out late in the season, is the son of Joe Horn, so he has NFL bloodlines. A physical, playmaking CB, Horn adds depth to a roster that could lose several CBs to free agency in the spring.
Round 1 - Pick 13
Round 1 - Pick 14
Kyle Shanahan said that Jimmy Garoppolo is his QB for 2021 but that doesn't mean the team can't (or won't) plan for the future. Trey Lance has the athleticism and arm strength to be a legit NFL QB, he only lacks experience. But if anyone can get the most out of his abilities it's Shanahan, who did just that with Robert Griffin III during his rookie year in Washington back in 2012.
Round 1 - Pick 15
Mac Jones QB
Alabama • Jr • 6'3" / 214 lbs
Jones may not be as athletic as Lawrence, Wilson, Fields or Lance but he's legit. He's proven it week in and week out for Alabama. Jones has been a lethal deep-ball passer all season and he always makes good decisions with the ball. It's probably fair to say that the Patriots won't be signing Cam Newton to a long-term deal and meanwhile Jones is generating buzz around the league.
Round 1 - Pick 16
Jayson Oweh EDGE
Penn State • Soph • 6'5" / 253 lbs
Oweh doesn't yet know how good he is and we could be looking back in several years and wonder how he wasn't drafted higher. The Raiders' defense is a mess and they have to get better at getting after the QB.
Round 1 - Pick 17
Round 1 - Pick 18
Alabama • Jr • 5'10" / 182 lbs
T.Y. Hilton is in the final year of his contract and while Michael Pittman and Parris Campbell are young, promising players, there isn't much depth behind them. Waddle might be the most explosive playmaker in this class.
Round 1 - Pick 19
Virginia Tech • Jr • 6'5" / 314 lbs
The Football Team obviously needs a long-term answer at QB after cutting ties with Dwayne Haskins, and perhaps they'll be better positioned to do that should they end up missing the playoffs. As it stands, they're atop the NFC East and for now they're upgrading the O-line with one one the most athletic linemen in this class.
Round 1 - Pick 20
Michigan • Jr • 6'5" / 320 lbs
Mitchell Trubisky is making a real case for why he deserves to stick around in Chicago, and much like WFT, if they make the playoffs, all the top-tier QBs could already be off the board. And like WFT, the Bears instead opt to bolster the offensive line.
From Los Angeles Rams
Round 1 - Pick 21
Florida • Sr • 6'0" / 193 lbs
Toney won't play in the Gators' bowl game but he's done more than enough to make his case as a legit first-rounder. And in Jacksonville, he'll give Trevor Lawrence a much-needed weapon alongside Laviska Shenault and DJ Chark.
Round 1 - Pick 22
Tulsa • Jr • 6'4" / 260 lbs
For the season Collins had four sacks, four interceptions (including two pick-sixes) and two forced fumbles. At 6-foot-4, 260 pounds, he looks more like a defensive end but moves with the fluidity of the modern day inside linebackers that have become so prevalent around the league.
Round 1 - Pick 23
Miami (FL) • Jr • 6'5" / 266 lbs
Phillips, who retired from football in 2018 because of injuries, transferred to the U and has been just about unstoppable. He announced two weeks ago that he's headed to the NFL and now the question becomes how high he'll end up getting drafted.
Round 1 - Pick 24
LSU • Jr • 6'4" / 200 lbs
Lamar Jackson needs a consistent downfield threat beyond Mark Andrews. Hollywood Brown is explosive but isn't a big target. Marshall is both and put up big numbers for LSU in 2020 before opting out.
Round 1 - Pick 25
Gregory Rousseau EDGE
Miami (FL) • Soph • 6'7" / 265 lbs
The Titans have 14 sacks this season. By comparison, Rousseau racked up 15.5 sacks last season but opted out in 2020. He's new to the position and the question is whether he can come close to replicating that type of production at the next level.
Round 1 - Pick 26
Georgia • Fr • 6'3" / 240 lbs
Shaq Barrett is playing on the franchise tag and Jason Pierre-Paul's contract expires after the 2021 season. Extremely active off the edge, Ojulari regularly finds himself in the backfield as a disruptive presence.
From Seattle Seahawks
Round 1 - Pick 27
Round 1 - Pick 28
Notre Dame • Jr • 6'1" / 215 lbs
Owusu-Koramoah is a tweener, which is why some NFL teams view him as a safety and not a linebacker. Above all else, he's an athlete and Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier will find ways to get him on the field.
Round 1 - Pick 30
Najee Harris RB
Alabama • Sr • 6'2" / 230 lbs
The Steelers need to beef up the O-line but they also need to figure out how to reestablish the run. Najee Harris isn't Derrick Henry, but he has similar traits with the added ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. If Pittsburgh can find a run game that passing offense becomes much more consistent (and less predictable).