It almost seems like a foregone conclusion at this point: The Jets are destined to have the first overall pick, which means they'll be in the Trevor Lawrence business next spring. That's a no-brainer, of course, and probably the best possible news for Sam Darnold, who can try to revive his career anywhere but with Adam Gase.
But here's the thing: Other than maybe the Bengals, every other NFL team -- all 31 of them -- should seriously consider taking Lawrence too if they somehow ended up with the No. 1 selection. That includes the Chiefs, the Ravens and the Texans. (This may not even be a hot take in a post-Josh Rosen world, though it's also nothing more than a thought experiment, because unless the Jets magically find a way to win a football game we know how this ends.)
So we know what happens at the top of the draft, but we see the Washington Football Team target a first-round QB for the second time in three drafts and the Vikings also find themselves in the QB business.
OK, let's get to this week's mock draft. And remember, the draft order below was determined using SportsLine's reverse Super Bowl odds following Sunday's Week 5 action.
Round 1 - Pick 1
Clemson • Jr • 6'6" / 220 lbs
It's hard to find a win on the Jets schedule. The blame isn't all on Sam Darnold, who could reportedly be traded should the team end up with a shot at Lawrence, but this offense needs a complete overhaul and the Clemson QB is the best player in college football.
Round 1 - Pick 2
Penei Sewell OL
Oregon • Jr • 6'6" / 330 lbs
Same story different week: Daniel Jones is running for his life, and when he's not, he's holding the ball too long in the pocket and it's leading to turnovers. By the way, if the Giants somehow end up with the No. 1 pick, they should seriously consider taking Trevor Lawrence.
Round 1 - Pick 3
Ohio State • Jr • 6'3" / 228 lbs
When your second-year QB, one you drafted 15th overall, has gone from starter to inactive in the span of a week, and there appears to be no change to that status barring injury ... well, then it's probably safe to assume the ol' Football Team is in the market for its next franchise quarterback. Fields succeeded Dwayne Haskins at Ohio State but he's considered a much better prospect, at least at this stage of their respective college careers.
Round 1 - Pick 4
Alabama • Jr • 6'2" / 203 lbs
The Jags used one of their 2020 first-rounders on corner C.J. Henderson, but there's still a need to upgrade the position. Surtain has the pedigree and he was arguably the best defensive back on Alabama's roster last season.
Round 1 - Pick 5
Alabama • Jr • 5'10" / 182 lbs
We love (love love) Ja'Marr Chase, and he has a more established track record in college, but he's opted out and Waddle is in his first season as a starter. And it's been incredibly fun to watch. The Bengals could use O-line help, but adding a legit deep threat would also make life a lot easier for Joe Burrow.
Round 1 - Pick 6
Miami (FL) • Soph • 6'7" / 265 lbs
The Falcons fired their coach and GM on Sunday night, and one of the biggest issues that has faced the team in recent years is the inability to get after the passer. Rousseau opted out for 2020 but racked up 15.5 sacks in 2019, and he hasn't even been playing the position very long.
Round 1 - Pick 7
Penn State • Jr • 6'3" / 244 lbs
As it stands, only Jerome Baker is under contract behind this season and Parsons has the type of freakish athleticism that we've come to expect in NFL linebackers -- Isaiah Simmons, Kenneth Murray, Patrick Queen, Devin White and Devin Bush just to name first-rounders from the last two drafts -- and he'll impact the Dolphins D from Day 1.
Round 1 - Pick 8
Caleb Farley DB
Virginia Tech • Jr • 6'2" / 207 lbs
This team has been beset by injuries and that includes the secondary. Rookie CB Michael Ojemudia has been a pleasant surprise and Farley, who has opted out, is also a big, physical corner. As a converted receiver, he has playmaking abilities too.
From Houston Texans
Round 1 - Pick 9
LSU • Jr • 6'1" / 200 lbs
Two top-10 picks and the Dolphins land Micah Parsons and Ja'Marr Chase. Uh, absolutely. This will likely be Tua's team in 2021 (if not sooner), and getting him a player of Chase's caliber will only make his transition easier.
Round 1 - Pick 10
Dylan Moses LB
Alabama • Sr • 6'3" / 240 lbs
This team has not been good during the Matt Patricia era and the former Patriots defensive coordinator currently has one of the NFL's worst defenses. Jarrad Davis has been solid through the first month of the season but he's in the final year of his deal. Dylan Moses is a first-round talent who returned to Alabama after tearing his ACL just before the 2019 season.
Round 1 - Pick 11
Wyatt Davis OL
Ohio State • Soph • 6'4" / 313 lbs
Trai Turner is the right guard but the Chargers, who have turned the keys over to rookie first-rounder Justin Herbert, could be looking to upgrade the left guard position -- and Wyatt Davis is the best interior lineman in this class.
Round 1 - Pick 12
Yes, Kirk Cousins signed a two-year extension this spring but the 32-year-old still isn't playing with the consistency that you'd expect from a franchise QB. But Lance, who could be a special talent, won't be ready to start in 2021 so Cousins would remain the starter for at least another season.
Round 1 - Pick 13
Northwestern • Jr • 6'3" / 305 lbs
The Panthers are one of the biggest surprises of the young season. The defense has been good and Teddy Bridgewater has been even better. And if the Panthers are comfortable moving forward with Bridgewater for 2021 they could shift their focus from QB to the O-line, which will have just one guard, Dennis Daley, under contract after the season. Slater, who can play both tackle positions might kick inside at the next level.
Round 1 - Pick 14
Shaun Wade CB
Ohio State • Jr • 6'1" / 195 lbs
The 49ers have five cornerbacks headed for unrestricted free agency and two more as exclusive rights free agents. Shaun Wade has a ton of big-game experience at Ohio State but played mostly in the slot throughout his career, and now the plan is for him to move to the outside in 2020. He's not the playmaker of former first-round teammates Damon Arnette and Jeffrey Okudah, but his versatility will make him an attractive option for CB-needy teams, especially if he can prove he can play outside.
Round 1 - Pick 15
Alabama • Jr • 6'1" / 175 lbs
The Eagles have again been plagued by injuries this season. And while Greg Ward has stepped up (just like he did last season), Travis Fulgham has been downright dominant. But adding a player of Smith's caliber also makes sense. For an idea of how good Smith is, consider this: he was probably the best wideout on the Crimson Tide's roster last season, and that roster included Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy and Jaylen Waddle.
Round 1 - Pick 16
Jayson Oweh DE
Penn State • Soph • 6'5" / 253 lbs
The Raiders have some young, explosive edge rushers -- Clelin Ferrell is playing up to his lofty expectations -- but there needs to be more consistency; the unit ranks near the bottom of the league in pass-rush efficiency, according to Football Outsiders. Oweh, who will suit up for Penn State this fall, is a physical freak who is still learning the position.
Round 1 - Pick 17
Kwity Paye DL
Michigan • Sr • 6'4" / 272 lbs
The Cowboys are replacement level when it comes to rushing the passer, and while Aldon Smith has looked good, he and Everson Griffen are on one-year deals. The Dallas D has been problematic thus far and adding an athletic edge rusher is a step in the right direction.
Round 1 - Pick 18
Alabama • Soph • 6'5" / 310 lbs
Akiem Hicks has been awesome but the Bears could use another playmaking interior defensive linemen. Barmore, who just earned the starting job this season, is growing into his role, but his physical tools have NFL teams very interested.
Round 1 - Pick 19
Kyle Pitts TE
Florida • Jr • 6'6" / 240 lbs
The Cards could stand to upgrade the offensive line but it's hard to pass on a playmaking tight end for Kyler Murray. Pitts has been just about unstoppable for the Gators and it's pretty easy to imagine him seamlessly integrating into Arizona's offense.
Round 1 - Pick 20
Georgia • Soph • 6'2" / 185 lbs
Denzel Ward is balling this season but Terrance Mitchell and Tavierre Thomas have left the Browns vulnerable at times. Yes, Greedy Williams will get healthy but Tyson Campbell is a high-upside talent with all the tools NFL teams look for in cornerbacks.
Round 1 - Pick 21
Purdue • Soph • 5'9" / 180 lbs
Moore played in just four games last season because of a hamstring injury, and after opting out he's now opted back in with the return of the Big Ten. He's one of the most dynamic playmakers in this draft class who is looking to build on promising 2018 and 2019 campaigns.
Round 1 - Pick 22
Penn State • Jr • 6'5" / 259 lbs
The Patriots never got around to replacing Gronk but Freiermuth, who is a proficient blocker who has the athleticism to line up all over the field, would again give this new-look New England offense a playmaking threat at the tight end position.
Round 1 - Pick 23
Stanford • Sr • 6'1" / 192 lbs
Xavier Rhodes is off to a fantastic start but he's on a one-year deal. Even if he's re-upped, you can never have enough athletic, high-upside defensive backs. Adebo had an inconsistent 2019 season but he'll have a chance to improve his draft stock with a strong 2020 effort.
Round 1 - Pick 25
Florida State • Sr • 6'5" / 305 lbs
Vita Vea appears done for the season but even though he's expected to be fully recovered ahead of the 2021 season, the Bucs' D would be even better with Marvin Wilson, who has gotten off to a slow start this season and needs to show week in and week out that he's a legit first-round talent.
Round 1 - Pick 26
Carlos Basham Jr. EDGE
Wake Forest • Sr • 6'5" / 285 lbs
Basham is raw but he has snaps where he absolutely dominates. He looks like a Steelers edge rusher, and the team may be in the market for one if they can't re-sign Bud Dupree, who has been downright unblockable through four games.
Round 1 - Pick 27
Notre Dame • Jr • 6'1" / 215 lbs
Owusu-Koramoah is listed as a linebacker but you can find him all over the field. He can come off the edge and has the athleticism, speed and change of direction to be an asset in coverage.
Round 1 - Pick 28
Kyle Trask QB
Florida • Sr • 6'5" / 239 lbs
Drew Brees continues to struggles to throw the ball down the field, and that won't magically improve as he gets older. Trask has only helped himself this season after just earning the starting job a year ago for the Gators. There's a lot to like about his game, even if he's a traditional drop-back quarterback in an age where athleticism is a big part of QB play.
Round 1 - Pick 30
Trey Smith OL
Tennessee • Sr • 6'6" / 330 lbs
The Chiefs have very few holes on offense but Kelechi Osemele is an unrestricted free agent after the season and Andrew Wylie will be a restricted free agent. Smith, who played tackle earlier in his career, is a road grader on the interior.
From Seattle Seahawks
Round 1 - Pick 31
Minnesota • Soph • 6'2" / 210 lbs
If Trevor Lawrence is the Jets' future, he'll need some weapons. Rashod Bateman needs to prove this season that he can consistently win at the line of scrimmage, but what he put on tape last season was a lot of first-round reps. He's a really good player who looks like an NFL wideout.