The 2023 NFL Draft is one week away and we are no closer to unmasking the mysteries of the first round. Ryan Wilson, Chris Trapasso and I tackle some of the biggest narratives awaiting Thursday night when commissioner Roger Goodell takes the stage for the first time.
1. Who should be taken No. 1 overall?
Ryan Wilson: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama -- "He's the best quarterback in this class, he had to do more with less, not only when compared to CJ Stroud, but to his Alabama predecessors in Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones. Yes, yes he's 5-10, but he plays much bigger, rarely getting balls knocked down at the line of scrimmage. He's also unflappable; if the play isn't there, there's no one consistently better at executing off-platform, from different arm angles, and always accurate. He's a Day 1 starter and it's pretty easy to argue that he's better than both Tua and Mac coming out of Alabama."
Chris Trapasso: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida -- "If the Panthers rebuild the right away, they'll want Richardson as their quarterback because of his immense upside."
Josh Edwards: Young -- "He is the top prospect at the game's most important position in this class. He may not possess the highest ceiling but his skill set gives me the most confidence. His intangibles and leadership qualities are the highest of the class."
2. Who is the safest prospect in the draft?
Wilson: Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama -- "In much the same way Aidan Hutchinson, Chase Young and Nick Bosa were safe picks, the same holds for Anderson. He loves football, is a great teammate, is close with his family and his sole focus is on getting better – and in the process, improving those around him. He had an off year by his standards in 2022 but his 2021 tape is play after play of college offenses struggling to account for him. He's a game-wrecker and will have an immediate impact in the league."
Trapasso: Anderson -- "Even if he's not a hybrid of Khalil Mack and Von Miller, his floor is incredibly high. He's a three-down, high-end edge rusher from Day 1."
Edwards: Brian Branch, S. Alabama -- "Anderson is certainly a contender but the choice is Branch. He can fill a variety of roles. I trust his preparedness to translate to the next level even if his athletic testing does not draw a second look from onlookers."
3. Who is the prospect with the biggest red flag?
Wilson: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky -- "Will Levis is the easy answer. I think that last year's QB class was instructive because for as much as the media (myself included) tried to shoehorn Matt Corral, Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder and Sam Howell into the first round because quarterbacks are so often overdrafted, the reality is that NFL teams weren't buying it. We'll see if it was the right decision but Levis, while more physically gifted than any of those '22 QBs, comes with some legit concerns. His tape is all over the place and while no one will ever question his toughness – he's probably the toughest player in this class – it's tough to project him as a franchise quarterback based on his struggles last fall. That doesn't mean he can't be a good NFL QB but there's a chasm between his tape and that of Bryce Young and CJ Stroud."
Trapasso: Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson -- "Beyond Jalen Carter, I'm going with Trenton Simpson. He isn't the surest tackler and is very green in coverage, two scary elements to a young linebacker entering today's NFL."
Edwards: Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee -- "Hooker is a 24-year-old quarterback coming off a torn ACL and exposure to an atypical offensive scheme. There are concerns that can not be ignored but he also possesses the intangibles that suggest he could overcome the situation."
4. Which team outside the top five should target a quarterback?
Wilson: "Among the top-45 picks: Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Los Angeles Rams, New Orleans, Tennessee. For the Bucs, Baker Mayfield isn't the long-term answer. In Minnesota, Kirk Cousins is in the final year of his deal. L.A. might be looking to life after Matthew Stafford calls it a career. Derek Carr is the man in New Orleans for now, and Ryan Tannehill, like Cousins, is 35 and set to hit free agency in a year. The question becomes, which of these teams will target Will Levis, which might be looking to Hendon Hooker – or if they'll wait till Day 3 to go after the next tier of QBs that includes, Jake Haener, Aidan O'Connell, Dorian Thompson-Robinson and the like."
Trapasso: "The Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask are not the long-term answers."
Edwards: "Detroit and Minnesota stand out as franchises best-positioned to welcome a rookie quarterback to the roster. The Lions and Vikings have talent and depth across the board, as well as a veteran quarterback in place to ease the transition of power. Not to mention, there are salary cap benefits for each team to make the move."
5. Who is one top prospect you expect to slide the furthest?
Wilson: Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina -- "There's a lot to like about his game but when compared to the top corners in this class – Christian Gonzalez, Devon Witherspoon, Joey Porter Jr., Deonte Banks, Emmanuel Forbes and even Julius Brents – there's a gap. I've talked to teams that have Smith as CB2 while others have him as CB6. We think he ends up going on Day 2, and it'll be interesting to see where his college teammate, CB Darius Rush ends up going off the board after a strong pre-draft process."
Trapasso: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU -- "Teams love genuinely polished, sharp runners. Johnston is not that. He wins with explosiveness, size, and thunderous YAC ability."
Edwards: Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia -- "There are not many reasonable options for this category. It would not be a surprise if Smith is taken inside the top 10 but if he is not, then it could be a little while before his name is called. A run on offensive tackles and cornerbacks will probably occur after the Eagles at No. 10 overall."
6. Which player has the chance to be a surprise top-10 pick?
Wilson: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois -- "I don't know if that's even considered a surprise at this point. He was up to 185 pounds at a recent workout and ran a 4.40 40. He plays every bit that fast, is one of the best coverage corners in this class, and plays the run like he's an old-school middle linebacker. He doesn't have Christian Gonzalez's length but he plays like he's 6-2."
Trapasso: Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh -- "It's a weak defensive tackle class, and finding explosive interior rushers is not easy. That's precisely what Kancey is."
Edwards: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas -- "Everyone points to recent draft history to support their reason for why a running back will not be taken inside the top 10 when the reality is that a running back of Robinson's caliber has not been available since Saquon Barkley."
7. Which prospect could make the biggest leap into Round 1?
Wilson: Julius Brents, CB, Kansas State -- "There hasn't been much first-round media buzz on JuJu, but NFL teams love his game. He's 6-3, ran a 4.53 at the combine and had some of the best times in the 3-cone and short shuttle. He can run with any wide receiver on deep routes and changes direction like he's a much smaller player. After Tariq Woolen's breakout campaign last season, it'll be hard to pass up on Brents early in the draft."
Trapasso: Adetomiwa Adebawore, DL, Northwestern -- "He's a super-long, hyper-athletic inside-out rusher. His athleticism and versatility give him the feel of a surprise first-round pick."
Edwards: Keeanu Benton, DT, Wisconsin -- "There are a handful of teams in the 20s and into the 30s that need help along the interior defensive line. A run on the position could happen in that range with Clemson's Bryan Bresee, Michigan's Mazi Smith, Pittsburgh's Calijah Kancey and Benton potentially coming off the board. When the run happens, teams will be looking to scoop up quality at the position and Benton falls into that bucket."
8. Which prospect could fall out of the first round?
Wilson: Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia -- "Smith has first-round talent all day long. That is indisputable. The issue is that he weighed just 238 at the combine and that's about 10 pounds under what you want an NFL edge rusher to weigh. And for all this athleticism, he's currently better against the run than getting after the QB, and he wasn't asked to do much in coverage at Georgia. That doesn't mean he can't, but teams will be taking this into consideration on draft night."
Trapasso: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah -- "Now he could go No. 15 overall to the Packers. But in this loaded tight end class, it wouldn't be crazy that one of the older prospects with neck injury history actually is selected in the early stages of Round 2."
Edwards: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU -- "There are few players of Johnston's size and stature in this draft class and that could ultimately save his spot in line. However, the impression I have gotten from those around the league is that his position in the first round is not guaranteed."
9. Which team do you expect to make the most surprising pick that shakes up the draft?
Wilson: "The Seahawks. I have no idea what that pick will be but this is the same organization that has used first-round picks on LJ Collier and Rashaad Penny in recent years."
Trapasso: "The Tennessee Titans. I can't fathom new GM Ran Carthon entering his first season at the helm with Ryan Tannehill as the team's starting quarterback. I could see a big move into the top five for a quarterback."
Edwards: "A year ago, it was the Patriots taking interior offensive lineman Cole Strange. Seattle and Las Vegas are often strong contenders in this category. I will say the Texans. They could possibly shake things up at No. 2 overall but odds are even better that they do the same at No. 12 overall. Houston has several needs and could go in a direction that is not often predicted by media."
10. Which player is most likely to get traded during draft weekend?
Wilson: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers -- "Aaron Rodgers is the obvious answer but I'll go with Austin Ekeler. He reportedly wants out (or, more likely, a new deal since he's soon-to-be 28 years old entering the last year of his current one). And if Bijan Robinson is sitting there at No. 21 when the Chargers on the clock, that feels as close to a no-brainer as there may be all draft weekend. And if that happens, it's hard to envision Ekeler staying in L.A."
Trapasso: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Cardinals -- "As receivers go off the board, Hopkins draft value with sink, which should precipitate a trade."
Edwards: Hopkins -- "Rodgers is the most likely to be traded but Cardinals wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is also high on the list. A 31-year-old wide receiver carrying a roughly $31 million salary cap hit does the franchise little good in their current state."
