2012 Super Bowl Odds: Patriots remain faves, but Redskins make big move
The 2012 Super Bowl odds are constantly shifting. And no more so than during the Week 1 (over)reaction period. Let's examine who the favorites to take home the Lombardi Trophy are after a week's worth of NFL games.
It's easy to say "Don't over-react to Week 1 results" when it comes to the NFL. It's much harder to not over-react to Week 1 results. One of the places we see the most reaction to early NFL scores are Super Bowl odds.
For example: the Washington Redskins opened up the season as 65/1 to win the 2012 Super Bowl, but after putting a Robert Griffin III-fueled beatdown on the Saints, they've moved to 35/1, according to Bovada.lv. The movement's based on the Redskins looking much better than everyone expected, and even if they come back to earth against the Rams (several of our experts are predicting just that), they're probably going to be too popular of a pick to creep north of 50/1 any time soon. Having RG3 will do that for you.
The Falcons (from 25/1 to 16/1) and Buccaneers (100/1 to 60/1) also took a sizable jump forward after nice Week 1 outings. If you love Atlanta and their new offense to win it all, now's a decent investment period, because a win on Monday night over Peyton Manning and the Broncos would probably push them into single-digit odds, making it a much-less valuable buy, especially with the Chargers, Panthers, Redskins and Raiders as their next four games afterwards.
Greg Schiano's new (read: healthy) defense helped stifle the Panthers offense; the Buccaneers aren't really a threat to win it all, but at 100/1 that's just too much risk for any sportsbook.
In terms of teams falling the Dolphins dipped from 100/1 to 200/1, probably in an attempt to get anyone to buy on them from here on out; most books already have plenty of folks who invested in Miami during the Peyton chase. Any additional cash is gravy for a team that's not going to win many games.
The Bills (60/1 to 100/1), Raiders (65/1 to 100/1) and Chiefs (50/1 to 75/1) all took a tumble backwards: Buffalo was exposed in all facets of the game by the Jets, and went from sexy sleeper to snooze button specialist.
Oakland and Kansas City is probably as much about those two teams losing as it is about seeing the Chargers look good and Manning and the Broncos take down the Steelers. A very mixed-up division with lots of questions looked a lot more clear by Sunday evening, even if that clarity can't necessarily be trusted completely at this point.
As for the top favorites, the Patriots (5.5/1 to 5/1), Texans (9/1 to 7/1), 49ers (9/1 to 7/1), Ravens (18/1 to 11/1) and Bears (14/1 to 12/1) all put on pretty dominating performances and saw their Super Bowl odds shrink.
Only the Packers took a dip among that group, going from 7.5/1 to 8.5/1 as a result of San Francisco doing their thing at Lambeau. A Thursday night loss for Green Bay would make them a very intriguing bet if the odds drop far enough.
Two teams that started the season at 18/1 caught my eye as well: the Saints and Giants fell to 22/1 and 25/1, respectively, after both looked a little exposed on defense in their season openers. It was interesting that a controversial, high-powered team like New Orleans and, um, the defending Super Bowl champs weren't higher up on the odds list than before. But Vegas looks pretty smart for that right now.
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