2014 Super Bowl Odds: Undefeated but still not totally trusted
Let's take a look at 2014 Super Bowl odds heading into Week 4 and how Vegas treats the undefeated NFL teams.
As you probably know by now, there are seven undefeated teams in the NFL. Almost half of those are a surprise. The Seahawks, Broncos and Patriots at 3-0? Not so much. Those are the top three teams in our Super Bowl odds this week and they were three of the top four teams in our preseason Super Bowl odds.
New Orleans (12-1) has the "best" odds (read: worst, if you're betting on it) of the group but it's not like they're in the Denver/Seattle range here. Shouldn't they be? They have Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham is playing like a man possessed and Rob Ryan/Cameron Jordan has this defense playing like it never has before. The Saints are dangerous, man.
Chicago has creeped down as well (16-1) but hasn't changed that much from the start of the season, when they were 25-1 to win it all. That happens when you're in the same division as the Packers (14-1) and Lions (40-1), I suppose, but by the middle of last year the Bears climbed as high as 8-1. I'm not saying the Bears should be the top favorites but it's odd they haven't climbed more, even though some of their wins are last-second action.
The Dolphins (25-1) and the Chiefs (33-1) are a little ... odd as well. It's almost like Vegas is waiting for these teams to do what the Cardinals did last season. Is that going to happen? I dunno. The Chiefs have a legit defense and as long as Alex Smith/Jamaal Charles/Dwayne Bowe are around the offense will be capable. Miami's red flag -- for me -- is the hits that Ryan Tannehill's taken this year. But the biggest reason to believe in the Dolphins is Tannehill to begin with.
75 percent of the teams that go 3-0 to start a season end up making the playoffs. That means these squads already have a leg up on a shot at the Super Bowl. Which is what makes the relative lack of respect from Vegas fairly surprising.
• Crazy to only have one NFC East team -- the Cowboys (22-1) on the left side of the chart below. That's an extremely popular division even when it's not very good. The public's never shy of dumping money on the Giants (75-1), Eagles (75-1) and Redskins (100-1). But with those three teams a combined 1-8 it's completely understandable.
• That Steelers "bandwagon" I talked about last week? They have worse Super Bowl odds than the freaking Jets man. Of course the Jets aren't winless and headed to London in a backs-against-the-wall game against the Vikings. So there's that.
• Jaguars Watch, Week 4: FIVE THOUSAND TO ONE. Would you even waste a dollar on this, though? Those odds are ridiculous. And it's only Week 4. They won't get pulled until Jacksonville is mathematically eliminated (Week 10?) so we could see some historic digits here, people.
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