The regular season didn't end well with my Best Bets, as I finished behind both Will Brinson and Nick Kostos as part of Team OddsShark in the Westgate SuperContest.
The good news is we carried our own contest through the playoffs, like I've done the past two years with Kostos, which means the Pick Six Podcast title is still up for grabs. In the past two years, Kostos won the regular season by a smidge, but I rallied to win the overall crown. I plan to do that again this year.
My best bets this week feature the four wild-card games as well as a few over-under picks. In our contest, it will be all four games against the spread, with no over-under picks. Let's hope the playoffs are mine to win again.
The Chiefs will win this game. But why is this number so bloated? The Chiefs have major problems on defense, ranking 29th against the run, and that will play right into the Titans' hands. Look for a big game from Derrick Henry. The Chiefs will score late to win it, but this is way too many points.
I think the playoff-experienced Falcons can go on the road and win against a Rams team with little playoff experience. So if you are going to give me that many points, I will grab them. In fact, I am calling the Atlanta victory as they run on the league's 30th-ranked run defense when it comes to per-carry average. Upset special.
This seems like a big number for a team that is young and playoff inexperienced. But how do the Bills score if LeSean McCoy is out or limited? I don't think the Jaguars will score a ton, but they will find a way to get to 20 and win this 20-7 or 23-10, something like that. So lay the points.
The Saints beat the Panthers twice already this season, and it's a challenge to win three in a season. But the Panthers have allowed nearly 700 yards passing the past two weeks and Cam Newton isn't playing well. The Saints will win this game by 10 or so. Lay the points.
Bonus: Bills-Jaguars Under 39.5
If McCoy played in this one, I might lean to the over. Even with a low number, I don't see it getting close to that. The Jaguars might get a defensive touchdown, but I don't see much scoring here. Take the under.
Bonus: Falcons-Rams Over 48.5
The Rams led the NFL in scoring and the Falcons did it a year ago. They weren't as good this season on offense, but that doesn't mean Atlanta isn't capable of a big game on that side of the ball. I think they get it here and this one soars over the total.