2019 NFL Playoff Odds: Vegas releases every team's postseason chances; here's who to play or pass on

We have seen an explosion of betting options over the last few years, with sportsbooks no longer just offering point spreads for individual games but now freely offering win totals for virtually every single sport. Those win totals are a big deal in the NFL, and have been for about half a decade now -- they provide a glimpse into how Vegas feels about particular team's chances in the coming season.

Perhaps even more revealing are the odds issued by the guys in the desert, in this case the Las Vegas Westgate, on whether or not each team in the NFL will make the postseason. Look, these are not goofy odds tossed out randomly after the draft. They are carefully calculated by one of the top sportsbooks in the world. The Westgate is often "wrong" on these, in so much as they may miss on accurately crafting odds that match the end result of the season, but these are pretty indicative of what you might reasonably expect in the 2019 NFL season. 

Bear in mind, oftentimes it makes more sense to wager on a win total for a team, and other times on division odds for a team, depending on what's being offered. I'll indicate as much in the pass or play section while also trying to point out where I would lean in certain situations to help you in a tiebreak if you're debating on chasing a particular team. 

There are no right or wrong answers here -- every single year there are multiple new NFL teams in the playoffs. The Bears were not favored to make the playoffs last year and the Rams were not favored to make the playoffs the year before. What Vegas lays down isn't gospel, but it is a good guide. There's still plenty of value out there, so let's dig in and try find some of our favorite bets by running through every single team. 

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Arizona Cardinals

Yes (+1000) / No (-2000)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 2.6%

I don't think the Cardinals are going to make the playoffs, but I would much rather bet on them to get there than not based on this value. You can risk $100 and win $1,000 OR you can risk $2,000 and win $100. This team is a total unknown: Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray could be Sean McVay and Jared Goff or they could be a total disaster. I like what Arizona's done this offseason, even if I don't like the process on the whole Josh Rosen thing. I like this team for six or seven wins -- maybe everything clicks and they go 9-7 and sneak in as a wild card. Wouldn't want to be holding the "no" bag if that happens. 

Play or Pass? Pass

Atlanta Falcons

Yes (+170) / No (-200)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 23.9%

Injuries snuffed out any postseason hope for the Falcons last year. Surely they'll be luckier this season, but I'm not confident Atlanta did much to guard against it, particularly in the draft, where they took two offensive linemen in the first round and no players at all in the second or third round. That lack of defensive depth is concerning. Atlanta probably isn't the best team in the division but their current core/coaching staff can certainly take down the NFC South. We've seen them do it before. SportsLine's projections give them a 25 percent chance of going to the playoffs. I think it's a little bit higher and would lean "yes" here as a decent value.

Play or Pass? Pass

Baltimore Ravens

Yes (+180) / No (-220)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 46.3%

The Ravens are one of the more interesting teams in football. Same coaching staff with John Harbaugh, and it's a good one. Different front office, sort of, and Eric DeCosta put an emphasis on adding speed and twitch in the draft. The defense should be just as good I think, thanks to adding Earl Thomas to replace Eric Weddle and generally remaining stable. I'm not sure I trust the offense though. Lamar Jackson can't run the way he did down the stretch over a 16-game schedule and there are questions with the pass catchers. The division is a lot tougher too and the miss playoffs cost is expensive here relative to their win total (which almost ensures they miss anyway).

Play or Pass? Pass (would rather play Ravens under 8.5)

Buffalo Bills

Yes (+500) / No (-700)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 6.1%

Buffalo's a sneaky hot team with Vegas: their over 6.5 is juiced way up (-160). It's probably because the Bills had a decent offseason, but it might also be because Sean McDermott is one of the more underrated coaches in the league. The Bills added a lot in both free agency and the draft. Ed Oliver and Cody Ford should be Day 1 starters. I like Cole Beasley and John Brown. No, really! Devin Singletary could be an impact guy. I don't know if this is a nine- or 10-win team, but I definitely think it's a seven- or eight-win team. And if that's the case, the Bills could get lucky and provide a nice 5-1 payoff here. 

Play or Pass? Play: Yes (+500)

Carolina Panthers

Yes (+240) / No (-300)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 18.1%

This line all depends on Cam Newton's shoulder. The Panthers quarterback underwent offseason surgery for the second time in three years. If he's at full strength, I like the value in +240. If he isn't ready to start the season or suffers from long-term problems, this line would shoot up to like +500. Carolina improved the defense and offensive line in the draft and free agency. I think it's a potential wild-card team with a chance to contend for the division. I might rather bet them to win the NFC South at 5-1 than take this playoff bet.

Pass or Play? Pass

Chicago Bears

Yes (-110) / No (-110)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 58.5%

Woah. This is a shocking number. The Bears, one of the NFL's most dominant teams last year, are a coin flip to make or miss the playoffs? Their over-under win total is nine juiced to the over (-120), which means you're getting great value here. The Bears could win nine games, push that bet and still make the playoffs, all at a cheaper cost. I do think this is a team with step-back potential, but I also expected them to be something in the range of (-250) to make the playoffs after last year. Mitchell Trubisky might take another step forward. This is a nice price.

Pass or Play? Play: Yes (-110)

Cincinnati Bengals

Yes (+700) / No (-1100)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 7%

Zac Taylor might be the next great thing, but we don't know yet. Cincy is clearly comfortable making one more run with Andy Dalton, as they only drafted Ryan Finley in the fourth round during the draft. There are some nice pieces on offense, but I've got questions about how the defense will look under another new coordinator in Lou Anarumo. Not sure I see value in either side here -- SportsLine says seven percent chance they make the playoffs. This division is too tough for me to back the Bengals.

Pass or Play? Pass

Cleveland Browns

Yes (EV) / No (-120)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 60.9%

The mighty Browns, the hottest offseason team in the history of offseasons, aren't favored to make the postseason?? What, what, whaaaaaaaaaat? The Browns win total is nine with the over juiced (-130), so this is actually a pretty good value in terms of betting on them to make the postseason. You have to figure they win nine games if they make it, so you can take a potential push as a win while risking less. They could certainly win nine games and MISS the playoffs -- it happens all the time -- but I think I like this price better than taking their over or under. The coaching staff and offensive line could be problems, but Baker Mayfield might just be too good to hold down.

Pass or Play? Play: Yes (EV)

Dallas Cowboys

Yes (+105) / No (-125)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 44.7%

Not a whole lot of draft action for the Cowboys, who spent their time watching Amari Cooper highlights instead. Dallas has done a nice job ensuring there won't be holdouts for the 2019 season, locking in DeMarcus Lawrence and paying lip service to Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott contracts, which are probably 2020 problems to solve. There's so much superstar talent on both sides of the ball; my biggest worry is there are some Jenga guys here (Tyron Smith, Leighton Vander Esch) who would cause things to fall apart with injury. Don't love either price.

Pass or Play? Pass

Denver Broncos

Yes (+500) / No (-700)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 13.5%

Is this now the toughest division in football? The Chiefs might take a step back depending on Tyreek Hill's situation, but they'll still be dangerous. The Chargers are loaded. The Broncos and Raiders both seriously improved this offseason. I like Joe Flacco more than most folks (outside of John Elway). This Chris Harris contract situation has me worried but the defense could be due for a bounce back if they keep him in house. Too much unknown here with the coaching staff for me to take the plunge on either side at those prices.

Pass or Play? Pass

Detroit Lions

Yes (+500) / No (-700)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 27.1%

My Spidey Sense is going off on this Lions team for some reason. They're being entirely slept on, people actively want to dislike Matt Patricia and there's just nothing that fun about them. Matthew Stafford was neutered late in the year during 2018 and they appear willing to pound the ball with multiple tight ends, having signed Jesse James and drafted T.J. Hockenson and Isaac Nauta. The roster is kind of solid even if it's not sexy. The division is just too tough for me, though. I'd like to get something north of 7-1 if I was taking this.

Pass or Play? Pass

Green Bay Packers

Yes (+110) / No (-130)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 42.8%

Aaron Rodgers at plus money to make the postseason? Sure, give me those odds. I've got deep concerns about whether or not the Matt LaFleur thing will work out in Green Bay and I'm not a massive fan of their draft at all. Rashan Gary isn't a guarantee to impact this year and Darnell Savage is great but he's a guy playing a position where they have depth. Outside of Jace Sternberger, they didn't draft much help for Rodgers. It all comes down to LaFleur's offense working. I'm tempted to bet on it but not quite there, especially because of the division.

Pass or Play: Pass

Houston Texans

Yes (+150) / No (-180)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 26%

Kind of stunning to see these numbers, considering how good Bill O'Brien has been since he took over in Houston. People like to hate on BOB, but he's won nine games three times and 11 games once (last year). The division is hard, but Deshaun Watson is special ... when he's healthy. The offensive line is too big of a concern for me, considering his injuries, to buy into the idea that the Texans are less than 2-1 to make the playoffs. If Watson plays a full season, they'll go over their win total (8.5) and be in the playoff hunt. If not, I don't see them making the playoffs.

Pass or Play? Pass

Indianapolis Colts

Yes (-250) / No (+200)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 59%

Love the Colts and so does Vegas. Chris Ballard keeps crushing the draft, and Frank Reich's love for Parris Campbell has me excited to see what the Ohio State rookie can do with this offense. How are you stopping this group? Campbell, T.Y. Hilton, a great offensive line blocking for Marlon Mack and Andrew Luck pulling the trigger in his second season with Reich? This will be a popular Super Bowl sleeper. Their win total is absurd, checking in at 9.5 heavily juiced to the over (-140). I got my value on Indy last year. I'm not sure there's much to be had in 2019.

Pass or Play? Pass

Jacksonville Jaguars

Yes (+375) / No (-500)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 16.1%

I think the Jags could be due for a bounce-back season thanks to adding Nick Foles and improving both the offense (Jawaan Taylor) and defense (Josh Allen) in the draft. This should be an offense that heavily features Leonard Fournette thanks to the lack of pass catchers. I think it's a defense with a very good chance to bounce back. 

Pass or Play? Pass

Kansas City Chiefs

Yes (-550) / No (+400)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 83.8%

No one in their right mind is going to take the Chiefs to miss the playoffs, which is why it's so surprising to see this number for "no." It should be a lot higher right??? 4-1 odds for the Chiefs to completely combust and miss the postseason is not nearly enough value. And I'm not betting on the Madden curse derailing Patrick Mahomes, even though I think that losing Tyreek Hill, very much an unknown at this point, could potentially cause a big drop off. I would lean "no" at these prices but neither is very good. 

Pass or Play? Pass

Los Angeles Chargers

Yes (-220) / No (+180)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 73.9%

Again, look at the Chiefs value versus the Chargers value. Los Angeles is a MUCH better deal. I like the Chargers over at 9.5 but that is a large number, especially since the juice is high (-140). I might lean towards L.A. making the playoffs as the best value out of all these options, with the Chargers winning the division title paying out 1.8-1, which is not exactly a great deal either. This is a team with a very complete roster and a Hall of Fame quarterback in Philip Rivers continuing to play well into his late 30's. There's talent at the skill positions, the offensive line returns most of its starters from last year and this is the best defensive line in football. Making the playoffs isn't easy but I think the Chargers will do it. 

Play or Pass? Play: Yes (-220)

Los Angeles Rams

Yes (-310) / No (+275)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 75.5%

In theory liking the Chargers to make the playoffs should mean I like the Rams to make the playoffs. And I don't hate it, but it's $0.90 more expensive on the dollar, which is not ideal. Could the offensive line deal with injuries/departures and take a drop off at the exact same time as Todd Gurley continues to struggle? That seems kind of likely, to be honest. The defense should continue to be good, but it wasn't GREAT last year. The division is substantially better than it was a year ago. I'm pretty sure they'll make it but this price is a little bit more than I would want, although I understand why.  

Play or Pass? Pass

Miami Dolphins

Yes (+1100) / No (-2500)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 0.4%

Loved the Dolphins draft and landing Josh Rosen, but you can't pay the price on either side here. In theory there's good value on "no" but the price is too prohibitive. You have to risk $2,500 to win $100. 

Play or Pass? Pass

Minnesota Vikings

Yes (+130) / No (-150)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 35.1%

Surprised to see the computer so low on the Vikings, but Vegas is there too. I like Minnesota's odds to bounce back this season a lot. Garrett Bradbury's addition, coupled with Gary Kubiak, will result in a much-improved offensive line and it should do wonders for Dalvin Cook. I think my early lean is to pick Minnesota to win the division and since their price is 2-1 to take the North, I'd much rather bet on them at +130 with two outs as a wild card.

Pass or Play? Play: Yes (+130)

New England Patriots

Yes (-900) / No (+600)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 94%

You can't risk $900 on the Patriots making the playoffs to win $100 and you shouldn't be stupid enough to bet against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick if you're only getting 6-1 odds in return. If you want to bet on or against the Pats, just take them to win the division (1-5) or take their under in terms of wins (11). The last one is the best option if you're bearish on New England: they could win 10 games, win the division, make the playoffs and you still win money. Much better risk than the 6-1 odds. 

Play or Pass? Pass

New Orleans Saints

Yes (-310) / No (+250)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 87.8%

I think the Saints' odds of missing the playoffs are much lower than the SportsLine computer would indicate, but I'm also not betting on Drew Brees and Sean Payton to suddenly forget how to play and coach football. This is still a very good team with a lot of talent on offense and a nice backup in Teddy Bridgewater. They could sneak in as a wild card without Brees, honestly. 

Play or Pass? Pass

New York Giants

Yes (+500) / No (-700)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 17.4%

Despite all the times I've gone after the Giants in the last few months, I actually believe they're a playoff sleeper. Everything has to break right for the Giants to be good, but I can see some kind of poor man's version of the 2016 Cowboys situation here. Surprisingly great run game, competent, turnover-free quarterback play and some slot-ish weapons doing damage and utilizing a tight-end like red zone threat all to keep the defense off the field. I still wouldn't take the odds on the playoffs -- give me the Giants to win the division at 14-1 or the over on their win total (six) if I'm taking a bet on them. If they're good, they'll be really good. But they could be really bad. 

Play or Pass? Pass

New York Jets

Yes (+300) / No (-400)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 23.8%

I like the Jets this year! They added a bunch of star players in free agency, including C.J. Mosley and Le'Veon Bell. And then they scooped up Quentin Williams in the draft. I don't think the Jets are going to win the division or anything insane, but I think they'll compete for a playoff spot. Having said that, I'd rather go with the over on their win total than take 3-1 odds on them finding one of the two wild card spots.

Play or Pass? Pass

Oakland Raiders

Yes (+700) / No (-1100)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 3.0%

Wow, the computer HATES the Raiders more than the Carr family hates being criticized on social media. Three percent despite winning the offseason is really low. The Raiders added Antonio Brown, Tyrell Williams and Josh Jacobs. Clelin Ferrell and Jonathan Abram make the defense better immediately. But with the Chiefs and Chargers in this division and still a lot of holes on defense and a lot of questions on the offensive line, I don't think 7-1 is the greatest value in the world.

Play or Pass? Pass

Philadelphia Eagles

Yes (-190) / No (+160)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 58.3%

Unfortunately it doesn't appear the Eagles are going to offer a lot of value to anyone this year. Not really surprising just two years removed from winning a Super Bowl. I've got concerns over Carson Wentz playing a full season and the Eagles not having Nick Foles to bail them out. But the defensive line looks like it could be loaded again and I believe the secondary could take big steps this year with Ronald Darby back and Sidney Jones in the fold with full health. Offensively, they added a safety valve for Jason Peters in Andre Dillard, got a playmaker in Miles Saunders and created depth at wideout with J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. This looks like a contending team to me, and I would rather pay the juice at -190 than pay for their over 9.5 (-150) or deal with the odds on the division (4-5). 

Pass or Play? Play: Yes (-190)

Pittsburgh Steelers

Yes (+110) / No (-130)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 56.9%

This might be my favorite bet of the entire year. There's no way the Steelers should be plus odds to make the playoffs. No way. They lost Le'Veon Bell, but they didn't even have him last year. James Conner, Jaylen Samuels and Benny Snell are more than enough. They lost Antonio Brown and that matters. But that will motivate Ben Roethlisberger and JuJu Smith-Schuster is a budding superstar. There's enough left over in the passing game to generate plenty of offense. Trading up for Devin Bush will change this defense. The Steelers should not be underdogs to make the postseason based on Mike Tomlin's regular season history with this team. Hammer, hammer, hammer.

Pass or Play? Play: Yes (+110)

San Francisco 49ers

Yes (+240) / No (-300)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 34%

This is a bet I kind of love too. The 49ers' over is eight games and it's juiced to the over (-120). Their odds to win the division are a lackluster 4-1. But given how this team has built out the roster, it's not impossible to see a breakout coming in 2019. Jimmy Garoppolo has to stay healthy and be the QB we expected. If he does, I can buy into this offense being kind of explosive with the personnel surrounding him -- Marquise Goodwin is off the radar but shouldn't be, Dante Pettis flashed last year, Tevin Coleman knows how to thrive in a Kyle Shanahan offense and George Kittle is an absolute animal. Defensively they got Nick Bosa to pair with a pretty good defensive line. If they're healthy they can make a wild card run.

Pass or Play? Play: Yes (+240)

Seattle Seahawks

Yes (+160) / No (-190)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 45.3%

Wait, never mind. THIS is my favorite bet. The Seahawks are large plus money to make the playoffs? They haven't lost less than nine games since 2012 and have only lost less than nine games twice under Pete Carroll (7-9 both seasons before Russell Wilson arrived). This is a very consistent franchise overshadowed by the 49ers and Rams, who have gotten more hype the last two years for understandable reasons. Seattle might be dealing with a loss of Doug Baldwin, but it added D.K. Metcalf and is going to be a running team anyway. Frank Clark's departure is concerning, but I trust the ability of this team to get above average defensive performance from a roster that might not normally look like it's ready to produce. I like the Seahawks here and the Seahawks over at 8.5.

Pass or Play? Play: Yes (+160)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Yes (+500) / No (-700)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 14%

Tampa is ahead of only Arizona in terms of SportsLine projections. And I get it. The Bucs have been hyped for years now. But there's reason to be bullish, assuming Bruce Arians is the upgrade we think. Jameis Winston has flashed at various times and he's a perfect fit for Arians offense. I'm not really worried about the offense -- it comes down to the defense. And I sort of wanted to start talking myself into this working out, but the more I think about the Saints and the Falcons and the Panthers and the more I look at this Tampa defense, I just can't buy in. Devin White is a huge add. The front seven is interesting. I'm not sure the defensive backfield is locking anyone down. I think there's more value in the over 6.5 or the division bet (16-1) if you like the Bucs.

Pass or Play? Pass

Tennessee Titans

Yes (+375) / No (-500)

SportsLine Playoff Odds: 29.2

My Titans love is well documented, and I want to buy in this year. They added A.J. Brown and Adam Humphries to Corey Davis and Delanie Walker/Jonnu Smith. That plus Derrick Henry should make life easy for Marcus Mariota right? Defensively this is an underrated team. A full season of Cameron Wake, who keeps kicking Father Time in the face, might equate to a good pass rush. I would definitely take them over the Jags and I think I like them more than the Texans. Also, their odds to win the division are just 5-1 and the over-under for wins here is eight. If you're going to bet on something, the playoffs bet is the best value.

Pass or Play? Play: Yes (+375)

Washington Redskins

Yes (+500) / No (-700)

I don't see any value here. Everyone was burying the Redskins before the draft and is praising them after. I want to love their division odds, but 12-1 isn't that great, not after last year's team was 9-1 and 2019 will feature a rookie starting at QB (assuming Dwayne Haskins gets the nod). Their offensive line is good but the pass catchers are a huge question mark. Defensively they're not bad but they're definitely not loaded either. If I'm taking anything on Washington because I think they can win, I'm just taking the over on their win total at 6.5. 

Pass or Play? Pass

CBS Sports Senior Writer

Will Brinson joined CBS Sports in 2010 and enters his seventh season covering the NFL for CBS. He previously wrote for FanHouse along with myriad other Internet sites. A North Carolina native who lives... Full Bio

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