Super Bowl LIII will be a particularly fascinating matchup between a Patriots dynasty that has maintained its top dog status for the entire century to date, winning its way to the team's ninth Super Bowl appearance since Tom Brady took over at quarterback, and an upstart Rams team with a head coach in Sean McVay that many can envision being the next Belichick to dominate the sport until 2035. You can stream the game right here on CBSSports.com.
The Patriots surprisingly opened as underdogs in the matchup before being bet up immediately to favorite status. I would be surprised if the game closed at Patriots -3, but I'd also be surprised if enough action came in on the Rams to get it down to pick 'em. Expect the Patriots to go off as short favorites, which is something they're not used to being, especially in the playoffs.
Since 2001, New England has been favored by less than three points just 18 times, with three of those data points coming this season. They're 12-6 straight up and against the spread in those games, but only 1-2 this year, losing in Jacksonville and Pittsburgh but winning in Chicago. Of the 18 times the Patriots have been short favorites, just one has happened in the playoffs, when they beat the Colts 20-3 at home in January 2005 while favored by a single point.
What should we make of the market putting the Patriots into an area of the betting line where they typically never close? I believe it's two different, competing thoughts wrestling in the head of every bettor: a belief that the Rams are the better statistical team, and knowing that the Patriots have a tremendous experience edge, particular in the two spots that matter most: quarterback and coach.
I'm going to dive a bit deeper into the stats behind the Patriots' experience against Rams defensive coordinator Wade Phillips as well as against young quarterbacks still in their first three years in the league such as Jared Goff to see what if anything we should expect once the Super Bowl kicks off.
From Gladys Knight's anthem to who will score first to Maroon 5 to the Super Bowl MVP, get everything you need to make the right picks for Sunday in our Ultimate Super Bowl Props guide.
If you want to know which side I like this week, you can find that info at the SportsLine link below, where all my rated plays appear during the season along with plenty of great analysis from a fantastic collection of experts. You can also check out where all our CBS Sports staff lands on the big game right here.
Each week in this space, I go behind the lines and picks to bring you a bit of a deeper dive into what you should know before locking in your plays. Let's get to it.
My picks
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Patriots (-2.5) vs. Rams
Home-field advantage: n/a
Power rating line: Patriots -1
Opening line: Patriots -1.5
| NE | LAR | |
|---|---|---|
| Record vs. spread | 11-7 | 9-8-1 |
| Yards per play differential | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Points per drive offense rank | 8 | 3 |
| Points per drive defense rank | 7 | 21 |
| Weighted DVOA | 24.0 | 23.8 |
| Pass offense DVOA rank | 4 | 5 |
| Pass defense DVOA rank | 14 | 9 |
| Run offense DVOA rank | 9 | 1 |
| Run defense DVOA rank | 19 | 28 |
The Rams are the slightly better team statistically in this matchup, posting a better yards per play differential and a better season-long DVOA. But the Patriots have the edge in weighted DVOA (which puts more emphasis on recent performance) and the all-important experience card, with the team heading to its ninth Super Bowl under Bill Belichick.
In some sense it really doesn't matter what the stats say about the Patriots, especially season-long stats as they've markedly improved over the second half and look like a different team in the playoffs. They've gained a total of 1,022 yards in their wins over the Chargers and Chiefs; only one team in history has had a similar offensive run in the playoffs leading into the Super Bowl: the 1990 Bills, who also posted two games with 490 yards or more before going into Super Bowl XXV and getting stymied by a Giants defense run by a young man named Bill Belichick.
Wade Phillips vs. Patriots offense
Does Phillips have the chops to slow down the Patriots attack a la Belichick all those years ago? If this was three years ago and we were talking about a Denver defense that was the best in the league, sure. But the Rams don't have that kind of stop unit this year; in fact, it's the worst defense per DVOA that Phillips has ever brought into a matchup with Belichick and Josh McDaniels, who just so happens to have been the Patriots' offensive coordinator in every meeting between the two men since 2001.
| Date | Matchup | Result | Line | Yards | Yds/play | TOP | DVOA | vs. P | vs. R | Adj. Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct-05 | vs. SD | L 17-41 | -5.5 | 303 | 5.51 | 23:22 | 15th | 22nd | 12th | 6th |
| Jan-07 | at SD | W 24-21 | +5 | 327 | 4.42 | 29:06 | 15th | 11th | 26th | 3rd |
| Oct-07 | at DAL | W 48-27 | -5 | 448 | 5.74 | 38:15 | 6th | 3rd | 23rd | 4th |
| Dec-12 | vs. HOU | W 42-14 | -5.5 | 419 | 5.99 | 30:49 | 4th | 4th | 5th | 6th |
| Jan-13 | vs. HOU | W 41-28 | -9.5 | 457 | 7.03 | 28:36 | 4th | 4th | 5th | 6th |
| Dec-13 | at HOU | W 34-31 | -6.5 | 453 | 6.57 | 33:46 | 18th | 24th | 12th | 18th |
| Nov-15 | at DEN | L 24-30 (OT) | -2.5 | 301 | 4.93 | 25:57 | 1st | 1st | 4th | 1st |
| Jan-16 | at DEN | L 18-20 | -3 | 336 | 4.36 | 30:12 | 1st | 1st | 4th | 1st |
| Dec-16 | at DEN | W 16-3 | -3 | 313 | 4.29 | 33:36 | 1st | 1st | 21st | 2nd |
| Feb-19 | LAR (N) | | -2 | | | | 19th | 9th | 28th | 19th |
The Patriots weren't that great in the first two meetings against Phillips despite facing middle-of-the-road defenses, though they did score a road playoff upset in 2007. Then the Pats did whatever they wanted in the next four meetings despite Phillips presiding over some solid defenses during that stretch. Phillips got even with the Broncos, but all those happened to be in Denver against the league's best defense per overall DVOA, pass DVOA and adjusted sack rate.
This Rams unit is just 19th in DVOA, ninth against the pass and 19th in adjusted sack rate. It doesn't really seem like the recipe of a team that's going to make Brady uncomfortable, but maybe they have a heretofore unseen level they can tap into on the biggest stage of them all.
Young QBs vs. Patriots defense
On the other side of the ball, Jared Goff will be going up against a Patriots defense that has feasted in the playoffs on quarterbacks who have played three years or less.
| Date | Player | Age | Tm | Opp | Result | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb-04 | Jake Delhomme | 29 | CAR | N | NE | L 29-32 | 16 | 33 | 48.5 | 323 | 3 | 0 | 113.6 |
| Jan-05 | Ben Roethlisberger | 22 | PIT | | NE | L 27-41 | 14 | 24 | 58.3 | 226 | 2 | 3 | 78.1 |
| Jan-06 | Byron Leftwich | 25 | JAX | @ | NE | L 3-28 | 18 | 31 | 58.1 | 179 | 0 | 1 | 61.1 |
| Jan-07 | Philip Rivers | 25 | SD | | NE | L 21-24 | 14 | 32 | 43.8 | 230 | 0 | 1 | 55.5 |
| Jan-10 | Joe Flacco | 24 | BAL | @ | NE | W 33-14 | 4 | 10 | 40.0 | 34 | 0 | 1 | 10.0 |
| Jan-11 | Mark Sanchez | 24 | NYJ | @ | NE | W 28-21 | 16 | 25 | 64.0 | 194 | 3 | 0 | 127.3 |
| Jan-12 | Tim Tebow | 24 | DEN | @ | NE | L 10-45 | 9 | 26 | 34.6 | 136 | 0 | 0 | 52.7 |
| Jan-14 | Andrew Luck | 24 | IND | @ | NE | L 22-43 | 20 | 41 | 48.8 | 331 | 2 | 4 | 53.0 |
| Jan-15 | Andrew Luck | 25 | IND | @ | NE | L 7-45 | 12 | 33 | 36.4 | 126 | 0 | 2 | 23.0 |
| Feb-15 | Russell Wilson | 26 | SEA | N | NE | L 24-28 | 12 | 21 | 57.1 | 247 | 2 | 1 | 110.6 |
| Jan-18 | Marcus Mariota | 24 | TEN | @ | NE | L 14-35 | 22 | 37 | 59.5 | 254 | 2 | 0 | 98.3 |
| Jan-19 | Patrick Mahomes | 23 | KC | | NE | L 31-37 | 16 | 31 | 51.6 | 295 | 3 | 0 | 117.0 |
| Feb-19 | Jared Goff | 24 | LAR | N | NE | | | | | | | | |
Quarterbacks in their first three years in the league are just 2-10 against the Patriots in the playoffs, and one of those two wins was by a quarterback who completed four passes while the Ravens ran the ball 52 times for 234 yards and four touchdowns. Only Mark Sanchez managed to top even 60 percent passing among all these QBs, and the Patriots are 6-19 straight up in the playoffs since 2001 when any team has a completion percentage under 60 percent.
Goff has quality numbers this year, but he's failed to complete 60 percent of his passes in seven of his 18 games. If this Patriots defense can force presumed MVP Patrick Mahomes to complete close to 50 percent of his passes, they can theoretically do the same to Goff.
On the surface, the statistics say the Rams have what it takes to hang with the Patriots. But dig a little deeper, and red flags abound. It'll be up to Sean McVay to overcome the experience deficit that exists with both him and his quarterback if the Rams are going to shut the door on the Patriots dynasty in Super Bowl LIII.
Super Bowl LIII is Sunday, Feb. 3, in Atlanta and it will air on CBS and streamed here on CBSSports.com and the CBS Sports App for free on most connected devices.
