The AFC South was one of the most competitive divisions in the league last year and figures to be so again during the 2020 NFL season. The Houston Texans emerged with their fourth division title in five campaigns and the Tennessee Titans finished one game behind, while the Indianapolis Colts were in the thick of the race before a stretch to start the second half of the season. Indianapolis hopes to avoid a similar slide with the signing of quarterback Philip Rivers and the acquisition of defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, but which team should you back with your NFL picks?
The latest 2020 NFL odds list the Colts as +140 favorites to win the division title, while the Titans are also top contenders at +175 in the latest AFC South odds from William Hill. Before making any 2020 NFL picks on who wins the AFC South, be sure to check out the 2020 AFC South predictions and best bets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and has crushed human experts on a consistent basis. Since its 2015 inception, the model is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks.
And when it comes to NFL win totals, the model is coming off another banner year. In 2019, it went 18-11 on its over-under picks, with three pushes.
The model's top 2020 AFC South predictions
The model says the Houston Texans are considerably overvalued at +300 in the latest 2020 AFC South odds and win the division in just 17.4 percent of simulations.
Houston reached double-digit victories for the second straight season and fourth time in franchise history last year, going 10-6 to win its sixth division crown. DeAndre Hopkins had another strong campaign, hitting triple-digit catches (104) for the third time in his career and 1,000 receiving yards (1,165) for the fourth time.
Deshaun Watson won't have Hopkins as a target anymore, however, after the Texans shipped the four-time Pro Bowler to Arizona in a deal that shocked the football world. In addition to greatly weakening its aerial attack with the trade, Houston got back a rusher in David Johnson whose most productive season came in 2016.
Johnson ran for 1,239 yards and 16 touchdowns with the Cardinals that year while also catching four scoring passes, but the 28-year-old suffered a dislocated wrist in the 2017 opener and missed the rest of the season before gaining a total of 1,285 yards on the ground over the next two seasons. The Texans attempted to compensate for the loss of Hopkins by signing Randall Cobb, but the veteran wideout has registered 1,000 receiving yards just once in nine seasons and has had fewer than five TD catches each of the last five years.
How to make 2020 AFC South picks
The model also says one AFC South team boasts a win probability that exceeds its implied odds. You can only see who it is, and the percent of the time each team wins the division, over at SportsLine.
Which team is the best value in the AFC South 2020 odds? And how often does every team win the division? Visit SportsLine right now to see projected win totals, divisional odds and playoff odds for every team in the AFC South, all from a proven model that crushed its NFL picks, and find out.
2020 AFC South title odds (via William Hill)