The San Francisco 49ers made an intelligent move on Thursday night. Sitting at No. 13, with the player they wanted on the board, Tampa Bay called. The Bucs asked if they could move up to No. 13 from No. 14 to take a player the Niners didn't want. In exchange, the Bucs offered a swap of later picks, taking a seventh-rounder from San Francisco and giving back a pick that was roughly 130 selections earlier to finish the deal.
In other words, the Niners moved back one spot to move up 130 later in the draft. Everybody wins! Well, everybody except the person who took the under 13.5 on when Javon Kinlaw would be drafted. The Niners wanted Kinlaw and were about to take him at 13 before Tampa called. Instead, they took him at 14, and that was the difference between my first round props going 3-2 on Thursday night instead of 2-3.
I'm back for Friday's action, though. I've picked myself up off the mat, dusted myself off, and I'm ready to dive right back in with four more prop plays.
Jalen Hurts Over pick 55.5 (-110)
There's a method to my madness here. Quarterbacks are the most valuable commodity in football, but we don't see a lot of them going in the second round of the draft. Since 2000 there have been only 21 QBs taken in the second round. That's 21 taken in 640 overall selections (3.3%) for an average of 1.05 taken per second round. It makes sense. In a typical draft, the teams that need QBs the most are drafting early in the first where they take them. We saw this on Thursday night, with three going in the first six picks. You also see teams who need or want QBs trading up in the first round to get them. The Packers did this last night with Jordan Love.
The first round of the draft is in the books, so who were the winners and losers? Will Brinson and the Pick Six Podcast Superfriends are here to break it all down; listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness.
Four quarterbacks being chosen last night is a critical factor in this pick as well. Of the 21 QBs to go in the second the last 20 years, only three were selected after a first round that saw at least four chosen. Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick were second-round picks in 2011 after four were chosen in the first round, and Brock Osweiler went in the second round of the 2012 draft after four were taken in the first round. The 2003, 2004, and 2018 drafts had a minimum of four QBs selected in the first round (2018 had five), and none went in the subsequent round.
After the top guys are off the board, teams become more risk-averse when it comes to using valuable draft picks to take a volatile asset. So there's a strong chance we won't see another QB go before the third, which puts value on the over here for Hurts.
Team to draft Jalen Hurts: Saints (+1000)
And while on the subject of Hurts, who is going to take him? There are teams like the Colts, Patriots, Raiders, Steelers, Bears and Jaguars who are seen as teams who could be in the market for a QB still. Well, I don't think the Raiders are going to take a QB early. Signing Marcus Mariota signals that, and Jon Gruden has always preferred a veteran QB to a young one. As for the Steelers, they might want a QB, but if you look at their history, they haven't taken a QB shorter than 6-foot-3 since they took Tee Martin in 2000. Martin was 6-foot-2. So I don't see Hurts as a fit there.
The Bears already used a fourth-round pick to get Nick Foles, and I don't imagine them using another early pick on a QB. The Jaguars had two selections on Thursday and used neither on a QB.
Finally, when it comes to Hurts, it's going to take a "forward-thinking" franchise to see the value in what he can be. There aren't a lot of those around in the NFL. The Saints are, though, and Drew Brees is 41 years old. I don't think Taysom Hill -- who will turn 30 this summer -- is the future, either, no matter what Sean Payton says.
But Hurts could be, and at +1000, there's excellent value on this prop.
Jake Fromm Over pick 69.5 (-110)
I like the over on Fromm's selection for a lot of the same reasons I like the Over on Hurts. The No. 69 pick is early in the third round when I expect QBs to start going again, but I don't think Fromm is at the top of many boards among QBs. He doesn't have the cannon arm like Jacob Eason, nor is he the intriguing dual-threat type a team can dream on like Hurts. So I'd be surprised if Fromm goes before either of them, and that makes the over a logical choice.
First safety selected: Jeremy Chinn (+700)
This is a long shot I'm not expecting to hit but provides enough value that it's worth taking a punt on. There wasn't a single safety taken in the first round, which tells me that teams aren't as high on prospects like Xavier McKinney and Grant Delpit as a lot of the draft analysts are (I love Delpit, myself). So, if that's the case, that means lesser-known prospects like Jeremy Chinn could be. I wouldn't be surprised to see as many as five safeties go in the second round, and there's enough of a chance that Chinn's the first to go that he's worth the price at +700.