We're down to the final two weeks of the 2020 NFL season, which means it's once again time to take stock of the MVP race. Halfway through the year, most of the NFL community would've dismissed anyone other than Russell Wilson as a legitimate candidate to claim this season's top honors. But a lot has changed since then, as evidenced by our updated look at the MVP race.
Now, our team is convinced this is mostly a two-man race, with an outside chance for a third contender to steal the trophy. The finalists: Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.
Rodgers has been lights-out pretty much all year, entering Week 16 with an NFL-leading 40 touchdown passes. Mahomes has been nearly as dominant, leading the league in passing yards for the defending champions. Allen, meanwhile, has regained some of his early-season explosiveness with a breakout for the red-hot Bills.
Casting five-man ballots (with five points for the first-place pick and one point for the fifth-place pick), we assessed the entire race ahead of Week 16. The results: Rodgers and Mahomes are neck and neck, with Allen a relatively close third and other candidates -- including Wilson and the Titans' Derrick Henry -- trailing by quite a bit.
The panel of voters: Senior reporter Jonathan Jones, NFL writers Jared Dubin, Cody Benjamin, Tyler Sullivan, Jordan Dajani, Jeff Kerr and Josh Edwards
The full MVP tally
- QB Patrick Mahomes (33)
- QB Aaron Rodgers (29)
- QB Josh Allen (20)
- RB Derrick Henry (13)
- QB Russell Wilson (4)
- QB Ryan Tannehill (2)
- QB Kyler Murray (2)
- RB Dalvin Cook (2)
Most first-place votes:
- Patrick Mahomes (5)
- Aaron Rodgers (2)
Most second-place votes:
- Aaron Rodgers (4)
- Derrick Henry (1)
- Patrick Mahomes (1)
Positional representation:
- QB (6)
- RB (2)
So who will actually win?
This race honestly got quite a bit closer even over the last two weeks. Entering the final quarter of the year, you could've easily called this solely a two-man competition between Rodgers and Mahomes. Now, it's definitely fair to include Allen, who's got the advantage of leading a new AFC East champion in Buffalo and offers more than both Rodgers and Mahomes on the ground. Henry is also a justified inclusion here, but it's going to be hard for him to overtake three different QBs considering how pass-happy the NFL remains.
Each of the top three finalists should be playing to the finish line as their teams look to secure or contend for No. 1 seeding in the playoffs. Rodgers and the Packers finish against the Titans and Bears. Mahomes and the Chiefs get the Falcons and Chargers. And Allen and the Bills get the Patriots and Dolphins. Judging by those schedules alone, Mahomes has the cleanest path to boosted numbers, and considering Kansas City will be heavy favorites to win both and end up at 15-1 atop the NFL, the safe bet is for Patrick Mahomes to claim his second MVP in three years.
