All 32 NFL teams have undergone changes this offseason due to the falling cap number and then of course the additions made in free agency. We still have yet to reach the 2021 NFL Draft, but it does feel like we are starting to get a decent read on the potential of each team entering the 2021 season. While we are months away from legitimate football being played, William Hill Sportsbook released its win totals for each NFL team in 2021 last week.
First things first, we have to remember that the NFL is adding an extra game to the regular season, so an Over/Under listed at "8" no longer means a team will go .500 if it pushes. It also means all win totals could appear higher than they really are, but that's just something we will have to adjust to. As you would imagine, the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are at the top of the list with Over/Unders at 12 and 11.5 wins, respectively. The teams with the lowest win totals are the Houston Texans and Detroit Lions at 5, while the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars are listed at 6.
Below, we will list five early bets to consider. It's true that the offseason is not over and teams are still adding to their rosters, but there's value to be found in some of these lines. Let's start with the reigning Super Bowl champions.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 11.5 (+100)
The Buccaneers won 11 games in their first season with Tom Brady under center, and of course went on to win Super Bowl LV. Going back-to-back as Super Bowl champs is going to be tough, but the Buccaneers can at least replicate their regular-season success in 2021. Some would argue that Tampa Bay's 2020 regular season wasn't as great as it could have been, as they finished in second place in the division and were swept by Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints. Now, with Brees retired and an extra game to spare, the Buccaneers should at least post a record of 12-5.
Los Angeles Rams Over 10.5 (+105)
I like this line, but this is about as high as I will go. The NFC West is definitely the toughest division in football, but I think the addition of quarterback Matthew Stafford is absolutely huge. This elite defense carried the Rams to a 10-6 record last year and even won a playoff game. The offensive-minded Sean McVay acquiring a veteran signal-caller with a big arm should make this team better immediately.
Arizona Cardinals Over 8 (-140)
This line should shift to 9 by the time the regular season rolls around. Kyler Murray and Co. received plenty of attention last offseason with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins, but the Cardinals went just 8-8. Arizona is receiving attention again this offseason with the additions of J.J. Watt, A.J. Green and Malcolm Butler. I think that Murray will continue to improve and can go at least 9-8 in 2021. As we previously mentioned with the Rams, the Cardinals do play in the toughest division in football, but they could be a formidable opponent as well. I told you to take Cardinals Over 7 wins last year, and I'm telling you to take the Over again in 2021.
Dallas Cowboys Under 9.5 (-130)
This won't be a popular pick, but I am leaning towards the Under when it comes to America's Team. Great job by Jerry Jones locking up Dak Prescott, but even 1,690 passing yards and 12 total touchdowns from him in four games resulted in just one win. The defense was the issue for Dallas last year, there's no doubt about it. They were dead last in opponent goal-to-go efficiency, third-worst in opponent three-and-out percentage and third-worst in scoring defense. The Cowboys have the draft to try to plug some holes, but I don't think we are going to see Dallas turn into a contender in 2021. Additionally, betting on the NFC East to be disappointing again seems like a bet worth placing.
Detroit Lions Under 5 (+110)
Taking the Under on the team with the lowest win total is risky, but I think I'll take a flier on this one. Replacing Stafford with Jared Goff is a downgrade and replacing Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay with Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman is obviously a downgrade as well. Picking up an offensive playmaker like DeVonta Smith could help, but this defense was absolutely atrocious last year and they haven't done quite enough up to this point where we can afford to feel better about that side of the ball. Dan Campbell seems like a coach who could build a good culture, but I'm not sure how many kneecaps his squad will be biting off in Year 1.