Through 12 weeks of the NFL season, we still haven't seen a single team clinch a playoff berth yet, but that could change this week.
Heading into Week 13, the Vikings and Eagles could both clinch a spot in the postseason if a few things fall into place for them (You can). Although we know those two teams will almost certainly be making the playoffs, the other 12 spots are still up for grabs.
So who else will join the Vikings and Eagles in the postseason?
That's what we're here to answer right now with our weekly playoff projection, where we look at the postseason chances for all 32 teams. The projections here are based on data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine.com. Oh plugged some numbers into his SportsLine computer this week and simulated the rest of the NFL season, and using those numbers, we're going to let you know the playoff chances for every team, plus the projected 14-team playoff field.
With that in mind, let's get to this week's playoff projections.
AFC Playoff Projection
|1. (AFC West Champion)|
|The computer views the Chiefs as the best overall team not just in the AFC, but the entire NFL. The Chiefs are being given the best chance to win the Super Bowl at 24.35% (No other teams is above 19%). When it comes to the Chiefs, the computer loves the fact that they have the easiest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL at .371 (To put that in perspective, no other team is even under .400)|
|2. (AFC East Champion)|
|The Bills currently sit in second place in the AFC East, but the computer doesn't think that's where they'll finish. According to SportsLine, the Bills have a 64.5% chance of winning the division, which is well ahead of the Dolphins (20.7%). With three division games in the next three weeks -- at Patriots, Jets, Dolphins -- the Bills could go a long way toward clinching the division if they can pull off a sweep. |
|3. (AFC North Champion)|
|Despite the Ravens' shocking loss to Jacksonville, the computer still thinks Baltimore is going to win the AFC North. The Ravens have two big things working to their advantage. The first one is that they have the second-easiest remaining strength of schedule with their opponents having a combined winning percentage of just .403 (The Bengals have the fourth-most difficult at .591). The second thing is that the Ravens are 2-0 in the division. If Baltimore goes just 2-2 in their final four division games, that will clinch the divisional tiebreaker and if that happens, the Bengals will have to finish one full game ahead of the Ravens to win the AFC North title. As things stand now, the computer is giving the Ravens a 74% chance of winning the division, which is way ahead of the Bengals (21.7%). |
|4. (AFC South Champion)|
|If the Titans played in any other division, losing to the Bengals might have hurt them, but since they play in the AFC South, the computer didn't really punish them for the loss. The Titans still have a 94% chance of winning the division and barring a monumental collapse, there's no reason they shouldn't be hosting a wild-card game in mid-January. |
|5. Wild Card 1|
|The computer is actually projecting Miami to finish with the third-best record in the AFC, but unfortunately for the Dolphins, that's only going to get them the fifth-seed. Five of Miami's final six opponents are above .500 right now, which is why the computer doesn't think Miami will be staying atop the AFC East for much longer. |
|6. Wild Card 2|
|The Jets' decision to bench Zach Wilson in favor of Mike White definitely seems to have won over the computer. The Jets are a better team with White at quarterback and the computer is taking that into account by giving them a 59.2% chance of making the playoffs, which is a huge jump when you consider the computer had the Jets finishing ninth in the AFC last week. |
|7. Wild Card 3|
|Although the Bengals are tied for first place in the AFC North, the computer doesn't love their chances of winning the division. The big reason for that is because their schedule is brutal down the stretch. The Bengals have already faced four teams in this AFC playoff projection (Ravens, Titans, Jets, Dolphins) and they still have three more games left against teams expected to make the playoffs (Chiefs, Bills, Ravens) plus a game against Tom Brady's Buccaneers and a Christmas Eve showdown against the Patriots. The computer thinks the Bengals will sneak into the postseason just ahead of the Patriots and Chargers.|
Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other AFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Patriots (52.4%), Chargers (45.3%), Jaguars (5.8%), Browns (4.2%), Steelers (2.4%), Raiders (2.2%), Colts (2%), Broncos (0.0%), Texans (0.0%).
NFC Playoff Projection
|1. (NFC East Champion)|
|Not only are the Eagles a lock to make the playoffs, the computer also views them as a virtual lock to end up with the top seed in the NFC. If that happens, it would mark the first time since 2017 that the Eagles were the No. 1 seed. That year, the Vikings were the No. 2 seed and Philly ended up winning the Super Bowl, and it's starting to look like we could see a similar outcome this year. |
|2. (NFC North Champion)|
|The Vikings could become the first team in the NFL to clinch a division title this year and it will happen this week if they beat the Jets and the Lions lose to the Jaguars. Although the Vikings are projected to finish with the two-seed in the NFC, they actually have just the fourth-best chance to win the Super Bowl out of the conference. According to SportsLine, the Vikings have a 4.13% chance of winning it all with the Eagles (13.55%), 49ers (10.50%) and Cowboys (7.37%) all ahead of them. |
|3. (NFC West Champion)|
|The 49ers only have a one game lead over the Seahawks in the NFC West, but they might as well have already clinched the division, because the computer doesn't think Seattle is going to be able to catch San Francisco. According to SportsLine, the 49ers have a 76.3% chance of winning the division while the Seahawks chances are sitting at just 23.7%. The 49ers have already beaten Seattle once and they also have a 4-0 division record (compared to 2-1 for the Seahawks), which are two reasons why the computer likes the 49ers.|
|4. (NFC South Champion)|
|The last time we saw a team win a division with a losing record came in 2020 with the Commanders and that could definitely happen again this season. The Buccaneers are 5-6 it wouldn't be crazy to see them finish 8-9. Although all four teams in the NFC South are separated by just 1.5 games, the computer views the Buccaneers as the heavy favorite, giving them an 82.6% chance of winning the division. |
|5. Wild Card 1|
|The computer thinks the Cowboys have a good shot of winning 13 games this year, but thanks to the Eagles, a 13-4 record is only going to get the Cowboys a wild-card spot. The computer thinks the Cowboys have a lock on the fifth-seed and that they'll finish at least two games ahead of the next closest wild-card team.|
|6. Wild Card 2|
|The Seahawks are currently on a two-game losing streak, but despite that, the computer hasn't given up on them. According to SportsLine, the Seahawks a have a 77.8% chance of making the playoffs. The Seahawks are battling with the Giants and Commanders for the final two playoff spots in the NFC and one reason the the computer likes Seattle is because New York and Washington have two of the three most difficult remaining schedules. The Giants play five of their six remaining games against teams that currently have a winning record (Eagles x 2, Commanders x 2, Vikings) while the Commanders play four of their final five games against teams that currently have a winning record (Giants x 2, Cowboys, 49ers). On the other hand, the Seahawks still have three very winnable games on their schedule with two against the Rams and one against the Panthers.|
|7. Wild Card 3|
|The Giants have the toughest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL, but the computer still thinks New York is going to be able to sneak in and steal the final wild-card spot in the NFC. According to SportsLine, the Giants have a 55% chance of making it, which is slightly better than Washington's chances (55.8%). Of course, this will all be decided on the field with the Giants and Commanders playing TWICE in the next three weeks, including a game this Sunday at MetLife Stadium.|
Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other NFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Commanders (55.8%), Falcons (7.7%), Saints (6.0%), Panthers (5.4%), Lions (2.8%), Packers (1.0%), Rams (0.6%), Cardinals (0.3%), Bears (0.0%).
Note: The Texans, Broncos and Bears haven't been eliminated from playoff contention, but they have a 0% chance of making it because the computer hates them. Actually, the computer doesn't love or hate, it has no feelings, it just doesn't think there's a mathematical chance for Houston, Chicago or Denver to make it.
Wild-card round projection
(7) Bengals at (2) Bills
(6) Jets at (3) Ravens
(5) Dolphins at (4) Titans
(7) Giants at (2) Vikings
(6) Seahawks at (3) 49ers
(5) Cowboys at (4) Buccaneers